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Beat the Bookies with Bartlett!
Last week saw a clean sweep for this column, with all four selections coming in to make a tidy profit for its readers.

This week sees Evan Bartlett take his pick of the games in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A with a special week off for his Bundesliga selection (see below for details).

In England, it’s a case of overstretched European commitments, Spain has too many home teams at short odds and in Italy, the game of the weekend is one of the feistiest on the continent.


Premier League – Crystal Palace v Swansea

Following one of the most famous victories in the history of the club, it seems a funny time to back against Swansea.

That 3-0 victory at the Mestalla in midweek will go down in folklore for the Swans but it’s back down to Earth this week with a trip to Crystal Palace’s Selhurst Park.

It has been notoriously difficult for clubs playing in the Europa League on a Thursday night to come back to their domestic competition and do the business at the weekend and it should be no different here for a Swansea side facing an away trip to a newly promoted Palace team growing in confidence.

With relatively smaller resources than other teams playing in Europe, Swansea may just struggle this year as their squad is stretched by commitments across 4 competitions, much in the same way that Newcastle floundered last year.

Palace come in to this game after a tough trip to Manchester United, losing 2-0. But by no means did they disgrace themselves at the home of the champions and they will have grown in confidence now after getting their first win of the campaign against Paolo Di Canio’s Sunderland the week before.

Quite simply, this is the best possible time for the Eagles to play Laudrup’s men and therefore take my fancy in the Draw No Bet market at odds of 2.46.

La Liga – Real Sociedad v Malaga

Following disappointing European defeats in midweek, it is surprising that Valencia (1.97) and Real Sociedad (2.0) are so short for their home games this weekend against Sevilla and Malaga respectively.

It’s not only the manner of their defeats in midweek but the calibre of the opposition they will be facing back in Spain that make their  prices look so unattractive.

While Sevilla have suffered an uncharacteristically dreadful start to the season, sitting down in 19th spot after the first four games, Valencia haven’t fared much better – losing three on the bounce after a close opening day victory over Malaga being their only points so far.

But it’s that team, Malaga (4.3), that take my fancy this week, after that disappointing start against Los Che they had to travel to Camp Nou and, understandably, came away empty handed. But since then there is a feeling that fortunes at the South Coast club are on the up – most noticeably in their 5-0 demolition job over Rayo last weekend.

Despite opening the season with two wins in La Liga, their opponents Real Sociedad have now gone three games without a win in the league and suffered a disappointing result in midweek against Shakhtar Donetsk in their opening Champions League group game.

Away games to the likes of the Txuri-Urdin are always tough in La Liga, but I do think Los Boquerones are priced too long in this one. Therefore, get on Malaga to win in the Draw No Bet market at generous odds of 3.05.

Serie A – Roma v Lazio

Over in Italy, the main spectacle of the weekend has to be the ‘Derby della Capitale’ between Roma and Lazio on Sunday afternoon.

Stadio Olimpico plays host to one of the fiercest rivalries in Europe where terraces and tempers flare alike.

Roma sit in second place after three games with a 100% start to the season. And despite the losses of Erik Lamela to Tottenham and Marquinhos to PSG they have re-strengthened with the likes of Adem Ljajic and Mehdi Benatia coming in not to mention the evergreen performances of stalwarts Francesco Totti and Daniele de Rossi.

Lazio have also started well enough this year, two wins from three and their only defeat coming at the hands of champions Juventus. With Miroslav Klose still poaching goals for the Aquilotti they are a force to be reckoned with on the counter attack.

In fact, this one is close to call, of the last six meetings between the sides, Lazio have won an impressive four games. But with this acting as the away fixture for Lazio (as both teams play at Stadio Olimpico) with less support in the hostile atmosphere, it could be a tighter game than previous meetings with the draw at 3.45 looking to be a good option.

But what really interests me is the ‘sending off’ odds of 2.52. Of the last 12 encounters between the sides there have been an incredible 14 red cards with the ‘sending off’ bet paying out in 9 of the 12 matches. On a heated derby day, you’d be brave to bet against it.

Bundesliga – Schalke v Bayern Munich

This week, I am pleased to announce that I’ve been working hard on my first piece for the main Betting.Betfair website. As such, please copy and paste this link - http://betting.betfair.com/football/german-football/schalke-v-bayern-munich-everything-points-to-another-win-for-the-bundesliga-champions-190913-678.html - into your browser for this week’s Bundesliga tips on the clash between Schalke and Bayern Munich.

Summary
Back Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 2.46 (1 pt)
Back Malaga Draw No Bet @ 3.05 (1 pt)
Back the sending off between Roma and Lazio @ 2.52 (1 pt)

NB: Odds correct as of 20th September 2013

Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett

013/14 P/L
Wagered: 15 pts
Returned: 22.82 pts
P/L: +52.13%
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