Following Zambia's unlikely triumph over the Ivory Coast in last year's final, this year's version of the African Cup of Nations looks set to be perfect timing for revenge. The Elephants start as pre-tournament favourites, and with the likes of Didier Drogba and the Toure brothers making up the spine of the team it is easy to see why. But as last year showed, the AFCON can be full of surprises with the group stages being the perfect hunting ground for some tasty looking odds.
Group A
Group A sees host nation South Africa kick-off the tournament against unlikely qualifiers Cape Verde who beat West African giants Cameroon on their way to the finals. Cape Verde start an unsurprising 3.8 to qualify for the quarter finals. Angola look to be good value at 2.3 to qualify from the group, especially after beating the defending champions in a recent friendly. The second place of the group should then be fought between South Africa - a very short 1.14 to qualify - and Morocco at 1.68. Will the incessant noise of vuvuzelas inspire Bafana Bafana past their North African counterparts?
Summary: Back Angola to qualify @ 2.3
Group B
Group B will see tournament second-favourites Ghana, without star player Andre Ayew, look to win all 3 games against fairly poor opposition. Mali is in the grip of impending civil war - will this spur their players on or prove to be too much of a burden on their players' shoulders? Time will tell. However, Jonathan Wilson (writer of Inverting the Pyramid and editor of football journal 'The Blizzard') picks Niger as his surprise dark horses for the tournament - at least in a back-to-lay scenario. And who am I to argue? So backing the West Africans at 6.4 to get to the quarter finals seems a fair shout - especially given DR Congo's recent record in international football and their relatively short odds of 2.7. There doesn't seem to be too much point in backing Ghana at 1.08 to qualify and Mali may be a nation that it's best staying away from for now.
Summary: Back Niger to qualify @ 6.4
Group C
This group is home to the defending champions Zambia - looking to prove that last year's victory wasn't a fluke. Their first big challenge will come against Stephen Keshi's Nigeria. The Super Eagles have underperformed for a very long time on the international stage and are one of my picks to go furthest in the tournament. They look a good price at 2.14 to head the group. James Eastham of betting.betfair recently wrote a piece about Burkina Faso looking to upset a few of the bigger boys, with striker Jonathan Pitriopa being a player to watch. However, I do feel Nigeria and Zambia should be too strong for the Burkinabes and unlikely qualifiers Ethiopia who are a massive 18s to win the group.
Summary: back Nigeria to win the group @ 2.14
Group D
The final group, the ever-present group of death sees the Ivory Coast take on a strong trio of Tunisia, Algeria and Togo. The Ivorians are the obvious favourites to win the group (1.48) and to qualify (1.14 but there are some more attractive odds available for the other 3. Tunisia and Algeria both come in at 6s to win the group with Togo a distant 16s, but to qualify at 5.5 seem to be a more sensible option. Apart from their star player Emmanuel Adebayor up front, their squad does look to lack the quality of the other three. So a fight between the two North African sides looks likely, with Algeria currently being the 2nd best FIFA ranked team (22nd, behind Ivory Coast in 14th) they seem to look good value to qualify from the group at 1.9. However, their opening Group D encounter against Tunisia will prove to be an early decider in this battle.
Summary: back Algeria to qualify @ 1.9
For an overall pick to win the tournament, I fancy the Super Eagles of Nigeria @ 10.5
Expect the Cup of Nations to be full of surprises, filled with goals and of course lots of cliches from the commentary teams across Western Europe. Enjoy.
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