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happyhibee
14 Dec 12 09:28
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Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 33,262 | Blogger: happyhibee's blog
The best time of the year returns again and I ain't speaking about Christmas. Of course it's the darts season which for 4 weeks makes us all very happy. It starts tonight and below is a quick look at the opening night's fixtures:

Robert Thornton v Magnus Caris:
Thornton seems to have returned to somewhere close to his best in the last 12 months culminating in winning his first PDC tv title at the UK Open. Even in his defeats this year I've been impressed with his attitude as he seems to have stopped all the negativity and headshaking. He opens up v the experienced Caris who got some dreadful treatment from the crowd last year if memory serves. I fancy Thornton to win but match odds and handicaps look unappealing to me so happy to cheer my fellow scotsman on.

Recommendation: No Bet

Andree Welge v Leung Chung Nam:
First prelim match which tend to not really produce fireworks if history repeats. Welge is a capable german but I know absolutely nothing about his opponent and certainly won't be risking any money on this.

Recommendation: No Bet

Paul Nicholson v Co Stompe:
Probably the best match of the night on paper between an out of form Stompe and an increasingly frustrating Nicholson. Co performed well at the Ally Pally 3 years ago but apart from his world pairs victory hasn't shown much for 2 years. He has all the ability but he looks to be slipping down the rankings as opposed to getting back into the top 24 or 32. Nicholson is actually one of my favourite players simply because of all the nonsense that surrounds him. Wearing Ipods on stage, drawing maps on his hand and idolising CM Punk all makes me laugh and I'd like to see him actually deliver on stage. I feel he's never really produced anything like the performance as he did when first playing at the GSOD and Worlds in his first year but he is obviously a massive talent. I actually expected him to be a bit bigger than 1/2 or 4/9 simply as he aint in great nick himself but I think the prices look about right. I'm never keen on backing anybody when both players are struggling so definitely one to play in running if something appears.

Recommendation: No Bet

Adrian Lewis v Gino Vos:
The 2 time champ makes his bow in the tournament and I can imagine he will expect a comfy win. Despite his iffy results Lewis never seems to struggle for belief and he may be inspired again by a return to Ally Pally and by his new born baby. Vos is a dutch player who has qualified for this through the european order of merit and makes his debut in the PDC World Championships. I would imagine he would be nervous as playing the reigning champ is a big deal for him. Lewis is obviously very short and while he should win I'm curious to see what sort of a performance he puts in as he really hasn't played well all year.

Recommendation: No bet

Painter v Welge/Nam:
Painter awaits the winner of the qualifier and until we know who it is its hard to predict a winner. However if Welge makes it through I wouldn't be surprised to see him push the artist close.

Recommendation: No bet

Summary: A very quiet opening night for me. Not around for the action till later but not really missing much I don't feel. I toyed with backing Nicholson on the h'cap v Stompe but as discussed I hate backing players who aint really in form as it's often the quick way to the poorhouse.

All the best to everyone punting and hopefully the banter will be flying as usual for the duration of the tourney Happy
HH

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Replies: 366
By:
lightweight
When: 14 Dec 12 09:41
Good write up happy! Won't be around myself going out 4 dinner it'll be poor enough stuff anyway doubt I'll have a bet. Even an accum on the 4 fav's only pays a misely 6/4 and there is always shocks early on hard to find them tho'
By:
Johnny Concrete
When: 14 Dec 12 09:45
Agree with this. A lot are overplaying the impact of Lewis having a kid recently. I think he'll steamroller young Vos who tends to exit floor tournaments at the last 128 stage more often than not.

Welge the most likely odds against poke to oblige but wouldn't say so with a any degree of confidence
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 14 Dec 12 09:45
Are you Kevin 'no bet' Pullien in disguise?? ;)
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 14 Dec 12 09:46
I'll be trying a double on Welge and Stompe, Nicholson really hasn't gone on as I expected
By:
Cosmo Kramer
When: 14 Dec 12 09:50
Great write up as usual hibee.

I'm amazed at some of 'Undercovers' antics considering his life prior to being a darts pro. He is the darting Dean Gaffney!
By:
alun2005
When: 14 Dec 12 10:19
No better way of commencing the World Darts Championships season than with another stellar Hibee preview.  A mouthwatering selection of betting opportunities indeed.

Fingers crossed we will even see the Darts Forum renewing itself during the next month.

Good luck one and all.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 10:20
Morning Alun hope all is well. I'm just back from Vegas its fair to say the temperature here is slightly different
By:
alun2005
When: 14 Dec 12 10:28
Morning Hib, hope you cleaned up in Nevada.

And then after you'd finished doing the rooms, maybe you made it down to the tables for a few rounds of 'Go Johnny Go Go Go Go' against the top pros?
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 10:34
Lets just say the blackjack tables did not treat me well mate Sad

Was at the Pacquiao fight tho incredible experience
By:
alun2005
When: 14 Dec 12 10:36
Oh wow, that must have been tasty. What was the Vegas betting line on that one?
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 11:31
Horrendous. I bet Marquez to win by KO at 4/1 when seemingly 8/1 was available back home but it was just the weight of mexican money. I think he was roughly 11/8 to win the fight too when I think he was 2's back home at least?

Just read in the Post pull out that Huybrechts dad died recently as well. Has to weigh on his mind but might want to perform well for his dad's memory?
By:
alun2005
When: 14 Dec 12 12:59
Cheers Hib. It's heartwarming to learn that the masterminds of the Sinaloa Cartel have decided to launder drug money by backing 2/1 shots at 11/8 in Vegas, rather than the normal route of depositing it at the Nevada branch of the Heinous Shambolic Banking Corporation.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 13:01
Shrewdies Alun
By:
ocukstinky
When: 14 Dec 12 13:46
Thornton 3-1
Welge 4-1
Nicho 3-0
Lewis 3-0
Painter 3-1 Happy
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 14 Dec 12 14:40
what a wonderful sight this thread is

The worlds has arrived SillyCool

Dont see any shocks tonight
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 14:41
Dont really see too many good games tonight Steppy if I'm totally honest
By:
STEPTOES YARD
When: 14 Dec 12 14:58
tomorrow night when the big boys arrive Happy
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 14 Dec 12 15:09
Ive never been so pleased to see a thread ever.
Welcome back Happy.

One bet for me tonight... Nicho -1.5 on the Hcap.

Stompy looks like he has totally gone at the game to me.

Good luck
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 14 Dec 12 15:14
Happy.... Any thought on the outright??
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:15
I've backed Anderson, Pipe, Thornton, Winstanley & Kellett mate. Really think Anderson has a serious chance at 18/1
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 14 Dec 12 15:16
cheers
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:17
Scott Rand too as a lively outsider
By:
the silverback
When: 14 Dec 12 15:29
I'm going to stick your no-bets into a big accumulator HH Happy

I don't see how Kim's terrible news can be twisted into any sort of positive in terms of his chances and performances here. I'm of the view it can only have no impact (unlikely in my view) or be a negative, in which you should downgrade his chances to some extent. I don't see how it can put someone in any sort of "zone" which they may not have sometimes been able to attain under normal circumstances

If he plays well - well, he's been in fine form anyway, has great course form and was 100% motivated anyway - so I don't think we could put it down to any special motivation. "doing it for xxxxx" is more a case of overcoming the emotional factors and performing to your normal standard when logic would suggest you could have expected a lower standard than usual.

I hope he does well because he's one of my favourite players to watch and seems to be one of the good guys in the sport.

Mervyn King understandably took a long time to recover from his father's death.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:33
Sometimes death can just inspire. I'm sure it was ben crenshaw who won the masters after a death of someone close to him and for some bizarre reason it just happens.

I agree I like watching him play too and hope he goes well this tourney
By:
Brian_Ookiebasher
When: 14 Dec 12 15:35
Rocky Won the World title After Mickys death in Rocky III
Apollo Creeds death in Rocky IV
Didn't his wife die too in Rocky CXX and he went on to win the title.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:37
Over the past decade, the popularity of darts has grown at an exponential rate, becoming the second-most watched sport on Sky Sports, behind football. The 'arrers offers a multitude of betting opportunities, but where to start? Let Betting.Betfair darts tipster Jaymes Monte guide you through


1. Analyse the form

Darts is very much a confidence game and - perhaps more so than any other sport - a run of solid recent form should be a significant indicator in guiding your betting.

Away from the glare of competition, most of the players at the top of the sport are of very similar ability. The divisions occur in how well players can translate their play from the practice board to the competition board. And confidence is one of the biggest factors in successfully achieving that.

It should also be considered how well a player can translate form in weekend tournaments, away from the cameras, to the main stage with thousands watching.

Mark Walsh and Justin Pipe are prime examples of players who have dominated 'floor tournaments' (non-televised events) for extended periods of their career but have not been able to successfully land a major title in front of the cameras.


2. Analyse the draw

There was a time not so long ago when being drawn on the opposite side of a tournament schedule to Phil Taylor was the very first thing to look for when considering backing someone other than The Power in the outright markets.

Now, with so many players raising their game to challenge Taylor, the tournament draw requires even more scrutiny.

Take the 2012 Grand Slam of Darts as a prime example. Form players Michael van Gerwen and Simon Whitlock were drawn in the same half of the schedule as Phil Taylor and 2010 winner Scott Waites. Leaving the bottom half of the draw wide open and allowing Raymond van Barneveld to win his first Major title for five years.

It's certainly not the be all and end all, but a favourable draw can be a significant factor in who lifts the trophy come the end of the week. Make that your first point of reference before deciding whom to back for a title.


3. Betting In-Play

If you're going to bet In-Play on the darts then you either need to be quick or do your trading in the advertisement breaks.

A leg or even a match can swing in favour of one player or the other within the space of a few seconds.

Three missed darts at a double, a 180 or a big checkout can turn the betting on its head, so if you want to trade during the action you need to be quick and do so with conviction.


4. Know your players

Unlike some sports - football, rugby, boxing, for example - a big lead in a darts match does not allow a player to sit back and see out the game.

There's no equivalent of taking the ball into the corner to waste a bit of time in darts, you've got to hit that winning double to get over the line, and for some players a winning double can prove problematic.

When playing with such fine margins, tension can play a big part, so make a note - mentally or physically - of players who become a little nervy when the winning line approaches, and be prepared to lay them at short prices.

Equally, some players can be naturally slow starters in matches, before picking up the pace when they get into a rhythm. If you fancy a player to win a match, but know he can be a slow starter then you could get a much bigger price betting In-Play than you would pre-match.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:37
Thats from Betfair on how to make money betting on darts
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 14 Dec 12 15:38
I tend to agree with HH that this isn't much of a betting night but nevertheless, I see Thornton is a 5/4 shot to win 3-0 against Caris and that's been matched as low as 2.12 on here - that's a lay for me as Thornton (despite playing the best darts of his career over the last 6 months) is not always one to rely on and Magnus can easily win a set!

Caris played well against Beaton last year for virtually three sets, before imploding when the verminous crowd were on his back.
On all known form this is a win for Thornton but the Swede is a steady performer and I reckon he can hold his throw at some stage, at least three times on the trot.

I hate to back odds-on which is in effect what I'm doing in laying Thornton, but that's easily the bet of the night for me Wink
By:
the silverback
When: 14 Dec 12 15:40
Happy to agree to disagree HH. My main thinking is that it's easy to put a success such as Crenshaw's down to something like that. But people only tend to remember the examples where it's been deemed to inspire and it's easy to forget that long shots cop sometimes in any case. i.e. who's to say he wouldn't have won anyway.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:41
Just like Keith Elliot's theory in golf that a player would often win after becoming a dad (The nappy factor) Might be something in it but might have won regardless who knows? Happy
By:
the silverback
When: 14 Dec 12 15:45
It was probably the best I've seen Caris play v Beaton last year. But the Adonis was averaging comfortably sub-80 before the game turned at the end of the third set. Thornton has been ultra consistent for most of this year, can't see him giving Caris a sniff.
By:
the silverback
When: 14 Dec 12 15:47
The nappy factor instinctively makes a bit more sense to me. Just because it's a positive thing in people's lives I suppose.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 14 Dec 12 15:51
Silver - great to see such polarising views Wink
Do you reckon Thornton's value at that price for a 3-0 win? I certainly don't!

HH - where do you find info (such as Kim Huybrechts' dad's death) from?

Anyone fancy a big run from Kim?
I mentioned on another thread that at 40's he was rank bad value and this personal disaster for him doesn't enhance his chances in my opinion.
By:
happyhibee
When: 14 Dec 12 15:54
It was in the Racing Post but must have been available somewhere else as it was mentioned on an outright thread I think Navel
By:
the silverback
When: 14 Dec 12 15:54
I think there's probably a shade of value around 2.40 for the 3-0. But I always get screwed over by the throw. Have actually taken some -1.5 sets at 4-9.
By:
DartsnBooze
When: 14 Dec 12 16:36
HH, your followers will be rather disappointed with your "no bets" tonight Devil

I'm steering clear myself, and though some big hitters may think there's value in backing thornton and lewis in running for a quick green out, it's a dodgy strategy.

I'm looking forward to the prelim matches, best of 7 legs is a coin flip espesh as never know the pressure one player may feel to another.

Good luck all Happy
By:
alun2005
When: 14 Dec 12 17:12
Here's another Botfair 'Guide to Winning Money Through Darts Betting'

1. Create a Skimmer Bot which will Lay any number of 'cross-matched' bets with a resultant net zero downside.

2. Take the risk-free commission generated from the winning bets and put it in a bank.

3. Go back to 1 and repeat. 

Hope that helps.
By:
treble
When: 14 Dec 12 17:15
Is the Paul Lim who's qualified the Paul Lim of the first televised 9 darter fame Confused
By:
alun2005
When: 14 Dec 12 17:20
The very man
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