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Value selections and general musings

Saturday 16 March 2013

16 Mar 13 10:49
Selections : 5/11, Max: 0/1, P/L: -10.3, ROI: -0.14 (63.8-74.1/74.1)

Well, cleared out in a fairly major way on Tuesday. To be honest, I have found Tuesday night results (particularly in the Championship) very disappointing for me for quite a long time now - it is as if form seems to go completely out of the window. Irritatingly this often involves me getting suckered into a price which (I think) represents value and losing heavily. Sad I will try to reduce midweek stakes for a bit.

Three bets today.

Lay Manchester City for 7 pts at 2.14 at Everton (liability 8pts)

Man City resume the chase of Manchester United with a tricky away game at Goodison Park.Everton (7-6-1 at home and 7th in the league on 45 points) were shocked 0-3 at home to Wigan in the FA Cup last weekend and I suspect that there is an element of that in the prices for this match. City are 2nd in league, on 59 points, and 7-5-2 away from home. Agreed that Everton will miss their first pick goalie Howard (and CB Jagielka), but City also miss Aguero, who I think is a big player for them. There is no doubt that City are, on the figures, a better team than Everton and the more likely winners, but I think 2.14 is too short. Maybe something like 2.5 would be a more realistic price. As the stats show, the draw is also a big runner here.  So, at the odds, a lay of the visitors is a low risk play.

Back Nottingham Forest for 4 pts at 3.75 at Hull

For this and for the next bet, we are following momentum teams. Like a filly hitting top form in the autumn, the history books are full of teams mounting a late charge into the promotion picture in the Championship, usually after a change of manager (Reading last year, although more a change of owner than of manager in that case ...). Since the (re) appointment of Billy Davies, Forest have been flying and since their last defeat on 9 February they are 5-1-0, with the only blip being a 1-1 draw with Bolton (as to which, see below). Their away form figures are 5-7-6 and they lie 6th in the league with 57 points. Hull are 12-2-4 at home and lie second in the table with 68 points, under the much respected (by me) stewardship of Steve Bruce. As can be seen, they have been strong at home, but they did suffer a 2-4 reverse at Crystal Palace recently. On the bare form the prices look slightly skewed in favour of the value lying with Hull, but on this occasion I am persuaded by recent forms that the teams will be pretty closely matched and, as such, I think that 3.75 about the away team represents a shade of value.

Back Bolton for 6pts at 2.92 at Ipswich

Bolton lie 8th in the table, away form 3-7-8 with 54 points. Ipswich are 20th in the table with home form of 6-5-7, with 43 points. Armed with that information, you might well ask if I need my head looking at for putting up this bet. However, both teams have changed managers since the start of the season, and although Mick McCarthy is turning things around at Ipswich, it seems that Dougie Freedman is moving rather more quickly at Bolton. Since 2 February they have played 9 games and have a record of 6-2-1, with the only defeat being in the first of the nine games, 2-1 at Watford (over the same period, Ipswich are 3-2-3). Quite a few bookies are 6-4 Bolton, and I wouldn't want to lay more than that. In my book, the current price is a clear back.

Good luck with your bets today.

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