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Value selections and general musings

Saturday 30 March 2013

30 Mar 13 13:24
Sel: 7/16 (Max 0/1), P&L: -11.8, ROI: -0.107 (93.8-105.1/105.1)

Well, back after the international break and looking to bounce back after the disappointments of 17 March. As you will see, we are going back to the well on Sunderland and Wigan .... Plain

Lay Man Utd for 7pts (to lose 5pts) at 1.72 at Sunderland
You could be forgiven for thinking that I would lack enthusiasm for taking the reds on at Sunderland after the disappointing outcome when I last placed any faith in Sunderland (to beat Norwich), and of course I accept that United are carrying all before them this season. Although United are 10-2-2 away, it is likely they will field a somewhat weakened line up in light of the fact that they have a FA Cup replay at Stamford Bridge on Monday, given that they effectively have the league tied up (15 points clear with 9 games to play) and given that they are out of the Champions league (the FA Cup therefore assuming increased importance to them). Sunderland are 4-6-5 at home and therefore avoid defeat in the majority of their matches at home. There is a bit of talk about the Mackems celebrations after United lost the title there last season (and there is another pointer - if they had been able to win that game they would have been champions), but I don't really see that making much different to the fact that Sunderland need the points from this game much more than United. True it is that Sunderland have injury worries of their own (no Fletcher and possibly no Sessegnon), but the absence of "Clattermole" is not necessarily a negative and I think they will have enough to steal at least a point.

Lay Wigan for 8pts (to lose 7.7pts) at home to Norwich
As previously noted, Wigan do not have a strong record at home (now 3-4-8) and, truth be told, they were pretty poor against Newcastle. Norwich are 1-7-7 away from home, so not one to put the mortgage on, but worth noting that they have avoided defeat in 8/15 away games - just over 50%. That includes many tougher assignments than a trip to the JJB and a lay of the home team is a clear value play.

I have nearly been drawn into a lay of West Ham at home to West Brom (at 2.24), but on reflection that is probably a fair price - and the sort of price I would have expected about Wigan.


Lay Hull for 4pts (to lose 5.5pts) at Huddersfield.
The evening Championship game sees Hull travel to Huddersfield. The Championship results were all over the shop yesterday, with Watford only drawing with Burnley at home and Palace losing 0-4 at home to Birmingham. I expect the "squeaky bum" season to continue tonight. Hull have a very creditable 9-3-7 record away from home and remain second behind Cardiff, whereas the Terriers are 18th, five points clear of the relegation zone. They are no pushovers at home though (6-8-5) and I think the odds are presently a bit dismissive from an East Yorkshire perspective. I would have Hull at 2.7, so it is another lay at the present price.

Happy Easter and good luck to all with your bets today.

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