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Value selections and general musings

Saturday 6 April 2013

06 Apr 13 12:22
Sel: 7/19 (Max 0/1), P&L: -30, ROI:-0.239 (93.8-123.3/123.3)

Well, the losing run last Saturday was disappointing, but there we go. Form it temporary, class is permanent - or that's what I am telling myself right now. Let's see how we go on today. We have a maximum ...

Lay Southampton at 2.18 (for 8.5 points to lose 10pts) at Reading

I am really surprised to see Southampton (2-5-8 away) at such a short price on here. At 12th they are 8 places higher (and 11 points better off) than the basement occupants Reading. But Reading are 4-6-5 at home and quite tough to beat there; it is principally their dismal away form (1-2-13) that has cut them so far adrift. The betfair price implies that Southampton should be 11-10 or shorter with the layers, but that is shorter than most of the tissues and although they are arguably favourites for this match, I think the current price considerably overrates their chances.

I can't get too excited about any other prices today - thought about putting up Wolves at 3/1 at Bolton, or Wednesday at 6/5 at home to dismal Blackburn, but not enough in the stats to justify the prices being anything other than fair.

Good luck with the bets today.

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