Well, the wrong Arsenal (or Fulham) turned up. A set back, but not the end of the world.
Bet 2: Lay Liverpool at Aston Villa 7.5 points to win 8.4.
Reasoning pretty much the same here - Liverpool not a bad team, but nor are Villa and odds on the away win is generous from a layers perspective (and lower than was on offer in the high street this morning, judging by the RP table today). So, a lay it is.
GLA - follow the dog