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Value selections and general musings

Sunday 10 March

10 Mar 13 14:08
Recs : 4/8, P/L : 10.3pts, ROI : +0.22 (56.5 - 46.2 / 46.2)

Well, a good day yesterday, let's see if we can move the profit / loss column further in the right direction today. I was a bit surprised to see Millwall so short (2.44) at home to Blackburn in the Cup, but on reflection it is not an obviously wrong price. I am not sure that form translates as literally for Cup matches anyway, so I have decided to leave that and the Man Utd / Chelsea games alone. I am quite tempted by a back of Man Utd, and would probably punt at the price if this were a league match, but it's not. A more topical fun bet for those watching the match (I can't) might be a few quid on a red card @ 3.95. I am sure the OT crowd will be howling for one at every opportunity and it would not surprise me one bit to see one brandished. That said, I think Howard Webb is a good ref, so if there is one, I am sure it will be justified !

On the the real business of the day.

Newcastle to beat Stoke 4 points at 1.82

As previously noted in this blog, I follow Newcastle, and again, I note they are playing after a 0-0 draw in Russia on Thursday. However, they have players who did not make the trip to come in such as Debuchy, Santon, Gouffran and Cisse and the return to fitness of Hatem Ben Arfa is a big plus. They are 7-1-6 at home and, would generally be regarded as more likely than not (i.e.. sub evens) to win this game. When allied to the fact that they are playing Stoke, who are 1-6-7 for the season away from home and missing Robert Huth, I think 1.82 is a fair price to back at. Mind you, Stoke have already let me down once on this blog, by failing to beat West Ham (which in my book is poor form), so just a small back here. It will be interesting to see whether Michael Owen plays any part for Stoke. He will certainly get a hostile response from the boot boys, and sad to say, he must be shorter odds to pick up an injury than a goal !

Lay Liverpool to beat Spurs at 1.93 - lay of 6.4 points, liability 5.9.

A fairly obvious bet this, to me anyway. Spurs are third 8-2-4 away, Liverpool are 12 points and five places lower, with a home record of 7-3-4. Both teams are in good form and each has a talismanic figure - Suarez and Bale. How then is it that one is available to lay at 1.93 and the other at 4.4 ? True it is that Liverpool are at home and that Spurs had a home match in Europe on Thursday (beating Inter Milan 3-0), but even that I would only expect to result in something like home win at 2.4, away win at 3.7. I have plumped for a Liverpool lay rather than a Spurs win, as that is more in line with my betting style and because I think the draw is also a real runner here. As is almost invariably the case, Liverpool have been underpriced by the market here. You would certainly need deep pockets to consider backing them week in and out at odds on at home to teams above them (and, in the top four) in the league.

Good luck to all with their wagers today - if you have a good day, get out there and splash out on your Mum, you know she's worth it Love

Follow the Dog Cool

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