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Value selections and general musings

Saturday 9 March 2013

09 Mar 13 11:37
Recs: 1/5, P/L -15.2 pts, ROI: -0.57 (11.3-26.5/26.5)

Ok, well not on a good run. Cry. Actually the Man Utd and Villa bets, were I think in the right direction but unlucky losers. Putting three up today - one sllghtly against my better judgment, but there we go.

QPR to beat Sunderland 5pts at 2.4

Yes, this is the most doubtful of the three. That is the same QPR who have won one of their 14 home games this season, against a team unbeaten in their last five visits to Loftus Road. However, like it or not (not) money does talk and Harry does seem to have an amazing ability to get chairmen to splash out huge sums of cash on players to enable him to perform rescue missions. In the long term it has not done Southampton or Portsmouth much good, but Tony Fernandes is not looking beyond next season, for good reason, given the influx of Sky money. The new players do appear to be gelling and making a difference - witness last week's win at Southampton and a gallant performance at home to Man Utd the week before that. Sunderland are in a poor run of form, 3-4-7 away from home, and I have more than a suspicion they could yet be dragged into trouble - Larrson and Sessegnon are not consistent enough and I am not sure Martin O'Neill has really got inside the heads of the players to the extent he has in previous jobs. 

Villa to beat Reading 5 pts at 2.9
Another slightly dubious bet on the stats, Villa (2-5-7) to win at Reading (4-6-4), but again, I think these are clubs going in different directions. Villa have played well without reward in recent games, whereas Reading have regressed and, importantly for this bet, miss the goal threat of Kebe and Pogrebnyak today. I just don't think that Reading will have the necessary answers to Benteke, Agbonlahor and Weimann, all of whom are unquestionably Premiership players.

Lay Bournemouth to beat Doncaster at 2.08 (9 pts, liability 9.7pts)

The wheels have fallen slightly off the Eddie Howe bandwagon over the last couple of weeks - they are 9-6-3 at home (and 7th in the league) at home to Doncaster who are 11-4-3 away from home and top of the league with seven points more than Bournemouth. I would have the Cherries at closer to 6/4 on form figures alone. Doncaster are also not a bad bet at 4.3 on here, but given my current dismal form I have passed that over. Watch it come in now.

Good luck to all with their bets today.

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