Bit of a nothing day yesterday, with West Ham's surprise (to me) win, cancelling out Leicester's defeat. I am keen to have an interest, in the NL derby today though to get the ball moving again.
Spurs -v- Arsenal - match result to be a draw, 3pts @ 3.55
The teams here appear closely matched, being adjacent in the table at 4th and 5th. Spurs (7-4-2 at home) have four points more, but an inferior overall goal difference (15 v 22). At home their Gd is +7. Arsenal are 5-5-3 away from home and have a Gd of +6.
I always start from the premise that each result is a 2/1 shot and adjust according to form, home advantage etc etc. To me it is clear that Spurs should have a greater chance than 2/1 to win, particularly given their home advantage and recent form, but I think that would dent Arsenal's chances (ie. increase the notional 2/1 tissue) more than it affects the chances of a draw. I think the current price of 2.4 for a Spurs win is about right. I also don't think that a draw is a bad result for Spurs (which may be why Arsenal's price is pitched relatively low - they definitely would not be helped by a draw). I would probably invert the Arsenal and draw prices, ie. have the draw at 3.25, Arsenal at 3.55. In truth it is a tough call whether to back the draw or to lay Arsenal (at 3.25 or 9/4) at the current prices, but I will take my chances on the draw for a potentially bigger draw (see what I did there !
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This advice is not a trading one - I will ride out the odds (will be travelling anyway), hopefully Bale has exhausted his injury time heroics for this season !
Good luck if you play.
Follow the Dog
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