A quick line for Monday - busy day expected, so might not get to a computer before MNF, so I am putting the bet up tonight as it is a pretty obvious one to me.
Lay Man City for 10pts (exposure 5.2pts) at Aston Villa
Yes, I know City are the most likely winners, but 8/15 is too short. They are 6-5-2 away from home, Villa are 3-4-6 at home. On either set of statistics, an away win is slightly less than evens. It is true that where a lowly ranked team played a higher ranked one, this might be expected to revert to expectations, and it may, but I am mindful that City have lost away to Sunderland and Southampton, and drawn at West Ham and QPR. With that in mind, and with their overall statistics, 8/15 (or an effective 66% win expectation) is just too low (or high in terms of expectation). A number of high street bookies are also happy to lay this price, so in I go.
GL all. I will be back late tomorrow with a preview of and bet for the Man U / Real game.
Follow the Dog
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