However, in contrast to last Saturday, not much to get the punting juices flowing today. I had mrked out four possible prices of interest:
1. A lay of Leicester at Ipswich at up to 2.3 (6/5)
2. A back of Stoke at home to West Ham at 2.3 or above
3. A lay of Liverpool at Wigan at 1.8 (4/5) or less
4. A back of Hartlepool at Doncaster at 5 (4/1) or greater.
In the event, the prices on 3. and 4. are not currently good enough to warrant involvement. Good discipline, Dog.
. I will check the LIverpool price again later in case of an influx (one might even say the usual influx) of mug backers of Liverpool at odds on away from home (their record away this season is 3-6-4, a win percentage of 30.76).
So the current bets are:
5pts back of Stoke at home to West Ham @ 2.36
Although not everyones idea of a football team you would like to watch week in week out, you have to admire the job that Tony Pulis is doing at Stoke. They have a 6-6-1 home record and lie tenth in the division, already effectively safe from relegation concerns. Their home record is as good as anyone bar the 2 Manchester clubs in terms of points returned and directly comparable to Everton (6-6-1). Their away record is another matter, but we need not be troubled by that today. West Ham also have good home form (6-4-4), but have struggled away from home (2-2-9) and have only scored 8 away goals all season. Kevin Nolan is also out which is likely to be negative for them. If I were pricing this up, I would probably have Stoke shorter than evens, maybe around the 8/11 mark (and certainly so if I were a greedy bookie). Ask yourself this; what price would you have Everton to beat West Ham at home - 6/5 ?
6.3pts lay of Leicester at Ipswich @ 2.26
Although Leicester started the season off like a train, they now sit in 5th place in the Championship, five points off the automatic promotion places and six points clear of the team just outside the play offs. They are another team with a very strong home record (12-2-3), but have definitely not been so consistent away from home (5-4-7). Conversely, Ipswich started the season off dismally, but have restored some form of order and now lie five place off the bottom of the league, four points clear of the relegation zone. Their home form is uninspiring at (5-5-7), on the other hand, they have certainly not lost more than they have not lost. Bitter experience has taught me that backing teams with statistics like Leicester, away at teams with statistics like Ipswich is a fast track to the poor house particularly at odds significantly lower than 6/4. A lay at 2.26 is therefore a low risk value play for me.
Good luck to everyone with an interest today.
Follow the Dog
Comments: 1