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Value selections and general musings

Monday 25 February 2013

25 Feb 13 12:45
A tricky EPL match tonight - West Ham -v- Spurs (8pm, SS1). I am not too keen on betting on Spurs at the moment, having laid them in both matches against Lyon, on the first occasion losing out only to a Gareth Bale extra time goal and then in the second leg hilariously (I say now) in the process of cashing out, on the basis of my experience from the previous week, when the market was (slightly prematurely, I thought) suspended as Dembele shot home from what seemed like the half way line again well into injury time. Hmmm.

Anyway, current prices West Ham (3.6-3.65), Draw (3.5-3.55), Spurs (2.28-2.3). These are very close to the lines available with the bookies, so not much of a margin there. West Ham are 6-4-3 at home, Spuds are 7-2-4 away. Again, these statistics are pretty supportive of the current prices. The Racing Post "tips" the draw; always a sign they have no idea what is going to happen.

My suspicion is that the Spuds price will contract, and I would certainly lay them at around 2.1 or lower (any form of pre-match odds on would be a maximum lay), equally West Ham would start to become an attractive price at 3.9. But for the moment it's hands in pockets. There is not even much deviation between the over / under 2.5 price, spread 1.97-2.04 to give us an interest.

However, the joy of betting is that there is always something else to look at and there is also a Liga match tonight - Levante -v- Osasuna. It looks like this is available for online viewing for Sky customers. Anyway, prices are Levante (2.08-2.1) Draw (3.5-3.55) Osasuna (4.1-4.3). Levante are mid table and 7-1-3 at home, with a moderate (home) goal difference of 21-15. Osasuna are two places above the drop zone, 1-3-7 away from home with a goal difference (away) of 8-19. Levante played in the Europa on Thursday, beating Olympiakos 1-0 away, completing a 4-0 aggregate victory. That form, and their league position, is way above anything Osasuna have produced this season and anything above evens on the home win is just too generous. I am on at 2.1 and my advice is a strong, but not a maximum, back of Levante.

Back to the day job tomorrow, but will post again as and when time allows and opportunity beckons. I am not expecting the 100% start to this blog to last forever, but let's enjoy the form while it lasts !

Hasta la vista ! Cool

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