Assuming that our prospective punter has a good knowledge of sport, whether a price is wrong or right is as readily apparent as it is in Tescos or in any other transaction. For example, if I saw 8 top end razor blades for sale for about £10, I wouldn't have to think too hard about sticking them in the trolley. Obviously you would need to check the product - was the pack intact, were they genuine, but if so, buy as many as you can ! It is often said that if something is too good to be true then it usually is and the background checks need to be taken to find out the full facts to ensure we avoid that trap.
The reason for the annoying little diversion into Tescos is that I think I have unearthed 2 obviously mispriced items on Betfair in the Premiership today.
1. Newcastle to beat Southampton at 2.24.
I should add that I am a fan of Newcastle and so follow their fortunes closely. On the negative side, it is true that Tim Krul, their number one keeper and Hatim Ben Arfa, their most creative player, will miss this game. It is also very possible that Yohan Cabaye will not be fit. They also played in Europe, in Russia, on Thursday. However, thanks to Mr Ashley digging deep in January, they will still be able to field a strong side, including a very strong back four, three or four of whom did not play in Russia (Debuchy, Santon, Colocinni, Taylor although Mbiya Yanga (! what a mouthful) may start), a midfield comprising Tiote (who was unwell midweek) and Sissoko and Gouffron, returning from injury up front. I am not worried about Rob Elliot in goal, he has already shown good form and reliability in the early rounds of the Europa League this season.
Southampton have been in excellent form, and did not play midweek, but have an away record of 2-4-7 this season, and it is their home form which has particularly impressed of late.
Newcastle would usually be 4/6 or 4/7 for a game of this nature and would have routinely been that price in the Autumn, ironically before the arrivals in the January transfer window, which have unquestionably strengthened Newcastle's squad. Newcastle are 6-1-6 at home. Although I would be a layer at 1.8 or less, the available price is substantially better than evens and so I will be having a maximum stake on this.
2. Man City to beat Chelsea at 1.97
This is a razor blades price. I would have had City at 4/6 on my tissue. They are strong at home (9-3-1), Chelsea have good away form (7-3-3), but played (badly and with a number of their galacticos - Mata, Hazard and Oscar spring to mind) on Thursday. True it is that they can recall Ba (if Bentiez is allowed to play him ahead of Torres, oh bit of politics there !), Lampard, Cole and Ivanovic, but City have the majority of their outfield players fit (with he exception of Kompany and possibly Barry, apparently), know that this is a must win game after United moved 15 points clear yesterday, and have several points to prove after a febrile display against Southampton in their last league game. They have also had a free week, no doubt much to their frustration, to prepare for this.
However you cut it, I think evens is just too generous. And it's another max bet. Unusual to get two in one day, but there we are. Gift horses and all that.Right, after all that talk of razor blades, I'm off to shave now.
Good luck if you play, but not if you lay !
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