Cycling
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02 May 17
19:38
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
Don't really have the time to put up a big thread for this, although am hoping to be involved in the GC and stage winner markets.
So, thought we might kick it around and see what develops. Haven't looked into it with very much detail as yet, though.
Opening thoughts are as follows: I don't think Nibali is out of this, even though people are questioning his form, and actually his entire season. Quintana is the deserving short-priced favourite, no doubt about it, and he is going for the Double with a start in the TdF also, which means it could be a Triple with the Vuelta if he is on course with the previous two, who knows. I wouldn't mind 12/1 for the Double in actual fact, so might fire off an email to the local Book about it, however I suspect it'd be more like 8/1 with them.
There might be a couple of others who might have a good short if they can get going, early. Of the group: Kruijswijk, Landa, Dumoulin, Zakarin, TJVG -- probably Dumoulin can really show something, he seems to have shifted toward the GC in a GT this season, and he will enjoy the three weeks in terms of an improving ride.
Anyway, will look at it closer as it approaches in the next few days.
So, thought we might kick it around and see what develops. Haven't looked into it with very much detail as yet, though.
Opening thoughts are as follows: I don't think Nibali is out of this, even though people are questioning his form, and actually his entire season. Quintana is the deserving short-priced favourite, no doubt about it, and he is going for the Double with a start in the TdF also, which means it could be a Triple with the Vuelta if he is on course with the previous two, who knows. I wouldn't mind 12/1 for the Double in actual fact, so might fire off an email to the local Book about it, however I suspect it'd be more like 8/1 with them.
There might be a couple of others who might have a good short if they can get going, early. Of the group: Kruijswijk, Landa, Dumoulin, Zakarin, TJVG -- probably Dumoulin can really show something, he seems to have shifted toward the GC in a GT this season, and he will enjoy the three weeks in terms of an improving ride.
Anyway, will look at it closer as it approaches in the next few days.
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With the election going on in the UK I won't be able to pay as much attention to this as I'd like. As far as I can see there's two standout prices for the GC that are too big Mollema(40) and Yates(20). Hopefully some of the books will be doing match bets as I don't fancy laying Quintana for the overall.
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***** Nairo Quintana The 27yo Colombian became the first rider from his country to win the Giro in 2014, after struggling with health-related issues which would have caused other riders to fold and exit the race. First came a crash and then he developed a chest infection which he took anitbiotics for during the race. He was as far as back as over 3mins at one point, yet he still won by nearly 3mins after winning the stage 16 climb into Martelltal, and then also winning the stage 19 ITT hill climb.
Some of the credit for that victory must go to Unzue after he formulated a less imposing plan for Quintana's GT approach, and it worked a treat when Quintana won this, his first GT race that year. By winning the Vuelta last year however, he proved that he is ready to take the next step this year and become a dominant force in GT racing, and I think that by loudly proclaiming he is going for the Giro/TdF Double, he has asserted his confidence over his rivals for winning the Giro, in terms of: How can you expect to beat me when not only am I attempting to win this race, but also the TdF? Has had a quiet but quite decent season, at least by his standards, coming out in a forward condition for his first stage-race of the year to win a stage and the GC in Valencia. Then didn't travel well to the Middle East with a 13th on GC in the Abu Dhabi Tour, however once back on continental soil he won the Terminillo climb in the Tirreno-Adriatico stage 4 to also win the GC, if admittedly with a poor final ITT. Had a nice tune-up last start for this with a stage win and a 2nd-place on GC in the Asturias. He is ready. What I really like about Quintana this year, apart from his confidence level, is that he finally gets his own team, and this team without Valverde is superbly balanced for the mountains for his service. Valverde was very-much a disabling factor for Quintana, even though he was in the team for the Vuelta last year. Now that Quintana gets his own team he is free to fly, so to speak, and given how well riders respond to his quiet and serious approach to racing, they will turn themselves inside-out for him. Currently an 11/10 (best with BF) deserving short-priced favourite. However, even this price might look like value after as early as stage 4 when the riders face the first true climbing test with the Etna summit finish, since it's MOV's plan for complete dominance from the earliest staging point. Needs no introduction. Next level rider looking to dominate his rivals with climbing power in the mountains. Only injury, illness or a mechanical could cause him to lose this race. The one to beat. * Tom Dumoulin Hasn't had the most impressive season this year, however it does appear like he has been working well toward this race in parts, and it is worth remembering that he was leading this race last year for most of the first week, which was a solid building block to his 2015 Vuelta revelation as a GT contender, however he abandoned after developing saddle sores. Made the podium in Abu Dhabi Tour, his first race for the year, and then really impressed me with a 5th-place finish in Strade Bianche, a race I think really suits him. He was motivated for a good performance at Tirreno-Adriatico nest, however he looked to be significantly below his best as witnessed by his 13th-place finish in the ITT to finish. Next, rode-out MSR, and was seen in places in LBL for a 22nd-place finish, another race he could one day win if gets his weight-to-pwer ratio right. Presently (best with PP) 16/1. Very short. Should be 24/1 as a starting point, and 25/1 with some competitive value included. E/W, only. Hard to get right, but he can give a good account of himself and does look suited this year. Will not surprise should he make his presence felt at some point in the race. Worthy of very close consideration for a podium finish. 1/4* Adam Yates Promising 24yo rider from GBR with ORS from the start of his career. On debut here, and only his fourth GT start, however he showed impressive climbing skills in the mountains in last year's TdF, narrowly missing out on the podium. And, it would appear that Stephens is taking a leaf out of Unzue's book in the way MOV DS targeted Quintana for the Giro, so there are some "kid-gloves" involved, however he can improve here with a quieter race and approach and the podium is definitely the goal for the team with him. Experienced an interrupted season when illness forced him to abandon Tirreno-Adriatico. Regained some condition in Catalunya when finished in 4th-place in Catalunya, before an excellent 8th in LBL, last start. Has won this season at 200kms in a PCT-level GP race in ITA. Expecting a big improvement in his GC ambitions in this race, and he does look lightly-raced this season, which can be a bonus for a young rider. Presently a 18/1 shot (with various, best). Very short. Should be 33/1, E/W. Exciting proposition for the podium. Solid prospects. Consider. |
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Hey CJ, good to get your thoughts mate. Definitely worth a punt on Mollema, he really impressed late last year when won San Sebastien and narrowly missed the top step in Alberta on GC.
When there is such a dominant favourite in a race, it forces you to look down the boards for E/W value, and I think Mollema would have been deserving of some interest at that price in the 40s, however he is presently only widely-available at 16/1. You must have fixed that up for yourself quite handsomely. And it doesn't take much, I remember how hard the Books reacted with Kwiatkowski when I backed him E/W prior to LFW. I would expect some strong interest for Yates even now, so 18/1 might tumble down into 15/1. We'll see. Have never had much success with match bets, but there should be some good stage bets on offer, I should think. Are you involved politically in the UK? |
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Mollema available around that price on here, though.
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Stage: 1
** Caleb Ewan Crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico with a damaged shoulder on stage 2, however he looked to be on improving form when beaten twice in the sprints in Yorkshire last start, and there were excuses there, nevertheless I think he will have got a lot of out those races and lines up here as a five-time winner this season. ORS will have learnt from their mistakes in Yorkshire and they usually come out meaning business early on when on the big stage, holding their own quite handsomely. Was 3/1 at SP, and has found support to shorten a little since then with the main Books. I think 3/1 at W/O is a reasonable price, although probably best to take on exchange as that price is hard to fine elsewhere. Doesn't mind the big stage and coming into this at the right time. Tough to beat when gets clear room. Good bet. |
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Ewan, clearly the best sprinter in the finale by a long way, however Postlberger got a cheeky gap to win, and remember how well he rode in E3 -- that's what you get riding around and training with Sagan in your team -- you get bloody good, but it helps if you have some talent, and this guy does. Solid opening stage to open the Giro.
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Stage: 2
Interesting stage with the cat.2 likely to be a staging ground for a late attack, however it comes at a point with substantial kms remaining, so it does look finely balanced, but I think this early in a GT you are going to get some class riders wanting glory, and therefore I think the breakaway are likely to get it. No bets at ante-post for me, will look at the composition of the break and monitor the situation IR with that late climb. |
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big mistake from the Orica train
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Why oh why can you not get betting for Stage 2 winner with any bookies. I know its on exchange but only certain cyclists are listed. Pure joke.
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27 ks to go
Gonna be a bunch finish  |
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Not going to add a sprinter even though I think Ewan looks best in the sprint, just think someone is going to try and pinch this very late.
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Grepel saunders in
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Splintering-looking bunch sprint, speed too much for Postlberger trying a repeat. Gorilla gets it. Ewan was bumped into a mechanical, I think he might have won it -- unlucky.
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Good work by KAT getting Zakarin back in.
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Stage: 3
WIND ALERT! Ewan now the commanding favourite in a bunch sprint scenario. No ante-post bets for me. |
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What a FINISH
amazing Sardinia  |
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Well the wind proved to be a major factor. Jungels is a WT-quality rider, no doubt about it -- he hands the stage, on a platter, to the most overrated and overpaid rider in the peloton, Gaviria.
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Hopefully, some Etna fireworks tomorrow.
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Perhaps Tuesday would be better
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Yeah mate, the next stage.
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Fair go to Aussie Nathan Haas, tried his hand in a way which advantaged him best.
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Nibali Sicily Messina Maglia Rosa 15/2 for Stage 4 seems far too obvious ew goodie
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Having a little stab at Landa Meana just for fun today.
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Well there's Landa out of it..
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Well well, Jan Polanc take a bow. Didn't give him a chance to hold on there.
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Yes, it really looked like the wheels were coming off for Polanc there, but he dug down deep and found quality within himself -- very good ride by him.
Actually thought that G might go really well here if there were no major injections of speed toward the top, and he confirmed that by leading home the principals, so he'll have gained some confidence from that. I like how all Quintana did was take one long look at the group before slotting backing in, that was very interesting, it was almost like he was stalking the peloton for a brief moment with that move. The fact that he didn't go for the jugular, might have revealed his patience for the big picture outcome as he complies data on his rivals. I didn't think that was a tough climb, and his rivals didn't look impressive on the major part of it. Dumoulin couldn't get away, but he hung tough in the end. Not what many were expecting in terms of GC value, but a solid stage to have a first look at the GC men. |
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Stage: 5
Could be an interesting break given the hilly nature for more than half of the stage, however a bunch sprint still likely. Ewan is at the prohibitive odds of 27/20, at a time when the Gorilla looks to be coming good, so definitely no value there. Gorilla, on the other hand is 11/4 with the books, but trying to get matched on here at 3/1 looks appealing to me. |
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Paterski looked at Shalunov coming through a few times and knew he had little chance of making it to the end with him. Shalunov was way below the class of Paterski. In the bunch sprint, ORS got it wrong many times, so Ewan was never a genuine chance for the win. Gorilla never looked comfortable. Another win for Gaviria, maybe he might start reflecting his rating and pay packet. QSF looked liked they meant business, just came onto the scene at the right time and just delivered Gaviria nicely, but he didn't have it all his own way.
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Stage: 6
Books were very slow to get something up for this and even now IR not everyone is taking bets. Absolute chaos, and I don't understand it because it should have been priced-up like a punchy classic with Formolo, Rosa, Slagter, and the finale looks perfect for the former WC Rui Costa, but he has been on the wane, and the form is not great. I'm just really tentative to get involved because of the chaos, but even G could do very-well here, I think. No bets at this point. |
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Love what Stuyven represents -- he's in the break and he is absolutely driving it like the Panzerwagon would. He is a real Belgian rider, the quality of his riding is really worth admiring. Still too close to call if they can stay away, the wind is not helping the situation, but they have Stuyven.
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2 mins with 15kms to go should be enough, I believe. Still too close to call, though.
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I think the break have got this, now. 16/2:50.
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Market saying Stuyven and he bloody deserves it, however whilst he will dig down very deep, I'm not sure it will be enough. I hate to say that, actually. Would go Dillier, he has been riding with GVA so class can rub off. And he rode well in the Brabant Arrow. Peloton coming fast, but will come too late, I believe.
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Wow, what a destructive attack by Stuyven. Still got ample power. Good response by Dillier, he has it in him, I believe.
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Dillier! |
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Rui Costa attacked out of the peloton followed by Formolo -- should have smashed Gaviria's price. Much too tough -- this finish -- for sprinters, as suspected.
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Stage: 7
Bunch sprint most likely. Ewan back to a bit better value. I'll take the 5/2 with PP for interest only as it's really tough to get a read on the sprinters. Gaviria is not that impressive, Greipel looks lazy, and ORS are making themselves look like fools for Ewan. P.S. Just in relation to yesterday's stage in terms of the market chaos which existed at SP and throughout -- if I have some spare time and there's another market which is as chaotic, I thought it might be interesting to frame it up myself completely. |
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Ewan!
...by half a wheel! |