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Ashes - 4th Test, Old Trafford - Manchester - Sep 04-Sep08
Ashes - 4th Test, Old Trafford - Manchester - Sep 04-Sep08
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Replies: 2,068
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penny drop & english cricket decision-makers are not regular bed companions
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sewter - agree but they could even keep Buttler, drop Roy and get Denly to open. Foakes has to play.
Bairstow threw a tantrum when the gloves were given to Jos. Then JB got injured, Foakes got a ton on debut and man of the series in Sri Lanka. Now, JB is keeping again and dropping catches... Bayliss is a rare breed. A weak Aussie. |
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someone needs to grow a pair then. what's is point of the management or selectors if they don't make any difficult decisions ? johnny is lucky to be in the side at all given his form the last couple of years. he's in no position to be demanding to keep wicket
in any case surely it's common sense that he's scoring so few runs he needs to concentrating on his batting. he used to be 2nd best bat in the side behind root. at the moment you could argue he's playing as a specialist keeper so rarely does he get a score |
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you'd also imagine leach will have a bigger role to play at OT and the oval so woe betide the selectors and management if say bairstow muffs stumping smith and he goes on to get a massive score
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Injera I agree that also improves the team
I have a horrible feeling that they have rewarded the WC winners by telling them that they have the whole series Otherwise I just cant see how they can justify some of the selections |
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Roy needs to be dropped but they might well keep him in for the full series
Only change I could have seen is anderson for woakes but that ain't happening now Roy gone with Foakes in? Bairstow to open with the batting being juggled about would be best for us |
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This is arguably the worst english batting line up of all time so I dont think bringing in Foakes (who is out of nick and averaging less than 30 in the championship) at 7 is really the answer.
However we do have an opener who is the leading run scorer this year in Div one with 949 runs. WE ALSO HAVE A BATSMAN WHO HAS A FIRST CLASS CAREER AVERAGE OF 59.58 IN THE FORM OF HIS BLOODY LIFE HAVING SCORED 221 NOT OUT IN HIS LAST FIRST CLASS MATCH. I think those 2 could actually make a difference if they actually made the squad |
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Foakes knows how to bat in Test matches that''s the point
If he got anywhere near 30 batting at 7 that would be a right result |
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asking a lot for dom sibley to come in now with the pressure at its highest although jonathan trott did it 10 years ago but he was older and coming into a much better batting line up
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I can only assume re Sibley that they have decided not this summer v Australia otherwise that is also a baffling decision.
The continuing problem for English domestic openers is that they no longer play against the top Overseas fast bowlers on a regular basis as they are chasing the money elsewhere |
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What happened to Steve Finn?
Always wondered why he was never really given a proper run in the team, wasn't he like the leading wicket taker in the Ashes 2010/11? just took 6 for at the Waca and was then dropped for Bresnan for the 4th test They totally ruined that lads career in my opinion, mucked about with his run after the South Africa incident |
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It would be interesting to know which weather forecast drives punters!
If you just type in Manchester weather you get that god awful weather.com at the top of the page First option down is accuweather, again a load of pure dross Then people might think the BBC is a name they know and trust and use that. I tend to use the Met office and they aren't great, but they are the least worst imo |
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How do you measure the varying abilities of weather forecasting sources ?
Definition pinched from Wikipedia: Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given place and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change. I would imagine that weather forecasting agencies have highly sophisticated computer based models that have been built from historically observed weather conditions. I would also imagine that they employ individuals who have studied meteorology to degree level, such individuals pooling their joint experience to develop the modelling techniques in a continual improvement cycle. I would further imagine that these agencies employ techniques developed from the resurgence in artificial intelligence, borne from the exponential increases in computing power, availability of stored data, and increasingly powerful neural networks. As such, I would suggest that the information that weather forecasting agencies freely provide on their public websites will currently be of a higher quality than it has ever been. Why would it not be? It is likely, however, that the majority of the general population have no formal training in meteorology, are not aware of the underlying assumptions used in generating the forecast, have little understanding of the resultant limitations of the forecast, and have no formal training in interpreting the forecast data that is subsequently presented. |
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Angoose, just from years of experience and comparing forecasts to actual over a period of time
The met office will obviously have the most information regarding the UK. I tend to use the local met office for each country My main point was wondering which sources punters used . |
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I'm not convinced forecasting has got any better or worse in recent times and the computer models can change drastically hour by hour. I can't see how AI will improve things either.
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The betting side to it is reading various forecasts and trying to anticipate how the market will react. Then working out how much of the forecast is built in and whether or not the correction has been overdone.
I would say the current price of 4.5 is short considering the forecast and have traded on that basis |
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The particular strand of AI that weather forecasting is benefiting from is machine learning, it is all about learning from experience.
Humans tend to forget and overlook past experiences, computers do not. |
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I think we might be weather betting again for this test looking at Met office charts
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Friday looking the worst day now
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Weather doesn't look too bad, definitely not to warrant these prices
People must be betting on the weather.com forecast that pops up if you type Manchester weather. That's about as useful as England's top order |
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 as useful as englands top order. |
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Spot on jucel. In my early days I once backed the draw big in srilanka looking at that Google forecast.
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Denly to open, Roy at 4.
hmmn Not sure if it will make much difference but Denly should last a little longer and has a better technique. With a bit of luck we might make 40-3 and I would take the positive out of that! |
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Draw 3.8
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I see nothing substantial as far as rain in forecasts but will start to pay close attention from now. Still not entered market though.
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The head groundsman was spotted in the Arndale this afternoon purchasing a new pair of wellies. Just saying like.
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I suppose they are going to give them the whole series
But we all know this lot will be 50/3 in most innings anyway so its all on the middle order every time Stokes can't keep getting them out of trouble though and if we don't find some runs at the top of the order we wont be regaining the urn I predict a draw in this test though |
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I use myweather2.com for my golfing forecasts and over time have found it to be the most reliable compared to the others
mentioned here. This website splits the forecast into 3 hour sections so not sure if it will be accurate enough time wise for you guys but have a look and see what you think. There is a cricket section |
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england be over the moon if one of of these 2 tests is a watery draw. a one game shoot out far better for their chances
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forecast is still showers, some heavy.
I don't like to back the draw when showers are forecast, I like bands of rain and drizzle. I've been trying to trade the forecasts, about 500 down at this point. Rain free forecast between these teams has the draw about 8s/9s even 3.7 still looks low and I'm still laying!! |
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Current forecast per met - max overs lost
Wed - 2 hours Thurs - 0 hours Fri - 4 hours - showers all day Sat - 0 Sun - 0 Lose say 90 overs but gain back 24. Net 66 BBC has a better forecast but I don't rely on them or any other |
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England have only lost 1st this century at Old Trafford & that was 18 years ago
Two draws against Aus, both rain affected and one with 9 wickets down (2005) Pretty sure rain saved us in 2013 |
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Improved considerably now!
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I will probably not lay the draw for a year or so till I forget the 1.6k loss of the drawn test.
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You'll be having nightmares about that for years to come, waking up in cold sweats as images of Michael Fish haunt your inner most thoughts
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is smith out? massive backing on eng and aus drift . last few mins
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aus touched 3.05 30 secs ago now 2.8.
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I'm glad I don't know who Michael fish is. If he appears in my dreams I won't know.
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