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New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
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Replies: 2,994
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I suppose its better to be annoyed with yourself when you've got a green book in front of you
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Well I started laying from 2.2 and every ten ticks downward and only got to trade a couple of the bounces. In the end I reversed my position and went the other way at odds even lower than my lowest lay. Been buying back every five ticks and thankfully I'm into a slight profit. I find it very hard to do though, stopping out and reversing at a worse price. The ego really fights it. A few ticks of bounce soon after doesn't help either, plus you can't really risk sleeping until the train resumes in case you have to bail out for a double-whammy of a loss. I really should get on to the case as soon as the market goes up, but I like a day or two off between matches, yet I often miss out on these pre-match weather-draw moves.
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1.6 chunk................
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here we go, might get back on if it gets to 1.7
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took some more..1.67 8 9.......it was too low...
not sure what has changed if anything, but its a more realistic price now that i hope gets pressured down again.. |
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365 still 1/2
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ive took a bit of 1.68
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its a bit more 'rain at times' than persistent...
but the outfield may not even be ready saturday morning |
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that was the forecast when the last day of the last test got rained off.
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slight improvement sat and tues but sun monday still quite bad
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quite a significant move this
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the windows are quite shallow now, i think 1.8 would be too high..
i expect money to arrive to back.. |
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@peckerdunne... why would the outfield not be ready on saturday morning? Ground was upgraded in 2005 and has excellent drainage. Also its dry up to Saturday so no problems whatsoever. By the way the pitch is a green one, a lot more grass on it than expected. http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/90721177/seddon-park-pitch-confounds-expectations-covered-in-grass-with-no-dustbowl-in-sight
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thats the reason then, the pitch
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Don't know DAN.. that report was from over 18 hours ago...
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hmmm, perhaps its just a big bounce
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Would quite like it back up to 1.8 or so as had my lays looking to trade higher up. It's less good for my overall position but I wasn't planning to flatten out any time soon anyway so would rather see some volatility.
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Does the pitch being green mean anything in NZ? I remember a few tests ago(or was it NZ v SL?) the pitch was so green and no one had trouble batting on it.
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i still think we are going to lose 3 days play, so 1.7 for the draw is big
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No it does not about the pitch. But it was expected to be a lot more batter friendly to counter the SA pace attack. As it is not now, the perception is that NZ could "fail" easier and after their display in Wellington on a very batter friendly pitch this is the consensus.
Also in the forecast, Wednesday is now looking totally fine instead of showers with light winds which was being forecast 12 hours ago. I guess those are the differences at this stage. |
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So at this stage I think 2- 2.5 days play lost some of Sat made up on Wednesday and Sun Mon gone.... (but that can change). Fair price on the draw at the moment? Guess its getting close to it. Tuesday is the joker!
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Tyco, i am aware of the drainage.I was thinking more of the fact it will be raining(forecast)
FRIDAY night...........and possibly sat morn also, prior to toss... |
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cheers pecker.. ok fair enough. My forecast does not give much rain for those times but even then the outfield should be ready in 30 mins. So if covers are off pitch Sat morning.. no probs as far as I am concerned.
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True enough Tyco....but the humans will get greedy.........
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Ill top up at 1.72 but this better be a draw :D
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Yesterday I was annoyed not to get my 1.75 lay matched - today I suspect I'm going to end up being annoyed that my 1.75 back didn't get hit.
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Big move just now out to 1.75
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Saturday is now looking better, and Sunday no longer the nailed on washout it was. A greentop in NZ doesn't mean the ball will seam around. My estimate of the chances of a result has increased.
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So has mine pxb, Saturday is looking better and Wednesday is looking totally fine now. Green top in NZ is indeed no accurate gauge of whether the ball will seam or not. Now for Sunday to improve and see the draw above 2.50 again.
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kiwis need a result so could well end up being a green deck !!
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Am i happy or am i happy lol
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wow, how things can change !
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green deck and with an improved forecast who want to be on a draw at odds on
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i got a lay in then at 1.86
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Huge draw move. It wasn't that long ago that I had a lay at 1.5 matched, although spoiled it by trying to trade around 1.55. Now it's over 2 again. Think that's an over reaction to an improvement in a still pretty bad forecast. I've had my buy back at 1.8 matched and would be quite content for the 2.2 to be taken too.
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jesus the market has gone beserk
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