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New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
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Replies: 2,994
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be careful peckerdunne... this weather that they are predicting is from a low centred just off Australia at this time. It might not even get to NZ or could veer of course and miss Hamilton completely, or even peter out.
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Pecker when you said if a see 1.95 take it what did you mean?
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Yes thanks Tyco, i wont be away from the screen with big liabilities and aim to stay out long before the pendulum swings...
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i think we have timed this just about right
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Fatboy, its a weather bet, notoriously dangerous, buyer beware.
I believe that this market will see plenty of sustained odds on the draw. |
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FWIW I have "greened out" and am now slightly more red the draw than the other two options. Think the 1.85's was a bit short with the updated weather forecast.
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that the draw at odds on...ie below evens...
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I'm not making a prediction. I am just interpreting the forecasts I can see. As Tyco says, it's not guaranteed to even affect Hamilton. These systems can change course.
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So Fatboy, no one really knows any outcomes, just that the market moves up and it moves down.
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looks like a lot of people happy to cash out now
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Just saw a lay of 25k at 1.88 for about a pico-second. Why do people do that?
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Manipulation V, scare peeps into falsehoods..
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Fatboy, i have cashed out twice but i will continue to trade for now and i have in built protection already...some are sleeping some are scalping and some are weeping...
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so your awaiting the next weather update?
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It has done and the outlook has improved a little but there still seems to be enough rain 'threatened' for the draw to stay short
These things change in NZ more so than anywhere else..... |
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I couldn't back it down at these levels not if it was trading over 2.20 this morning and forecast has improved?
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i understand that, i got on at 2.8...
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It was trading at about 2.20 right up until 5.30pm.
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would you be a backer or a lay here?
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I've been laying. Annoyed not to get my 1.75 matched though.
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looks like market settled down for the night
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Tyco, weekend weather looks pretty grim down your way.
But as they say in Canada, 'At least you don't have to shovel it'. |
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Yep looking grim here all right. But I am down in Wellington so far removed from Hamilton. Weather update on the "news" was pretty much what is on the metservice. Looks like some rain coming in on Saturday but Sunday may be the biggest problem. If the projections on the low are correct.
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Choo Choo
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Reversed my position overnight, with a bit of micro-trading to boot - I sense this may indeed be a bit of a train.
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 its been a buzz............ |
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got the top and bottom a couple of times now also with some micro.
What occurs now i don't rightly know... It must bottom at least periodically you would think.. |
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I can't believe I bottled it and cashed out last night. Really passed off with myself. I'm just hoping we get some play on Saturday morning so I can jump back on.
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Don't beat yourself up Dan. I got out too at about 1.85 and have gone more on the results. I am of the opinion/hope that we could get a lot more play than the forecast is currently predicting. It will mean that the forecast has to change but they do tend to do that in NZ. THe next few days will be interesting.
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Question what price would the draw be if the forecast was fine for 5 days? to settle an argument please
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Huge. Over 6
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Kevin O' Brien......... i love you...............
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The way it is stacked now i am now estimating 2 full days for now anything more is lottery
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Hard to say that the forecast is the worst it has been but market trading at the low's
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To be expected I guess, if there's no change in the forecast, cos the certainty of a draw decreases as the time erodes (and the opportunity for the weather to change is lessened). Radar suggests to me that both Sunday and Monday could be total or near wash-outs, plus intermittent showers on one or more of the other days.
Anyone care to hazard a guesstimate as to what the odds will likely be at start of play if there's no change in the forecast and they start on time and get to bowl a few overs before we see any actual rain? |
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If the match starts on time draw would be around 1.9 or higher i believe. First rain disruption 1.65
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We should all have held that draw green for longer. I've had three lays hoping to trade any bounces but there haven't been any! I suppose with a lot of draw still left I shouldn't complain and will take another slice of red off at 1.5 if it gets there then see what happens.
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I predicted 1.5 last night and still bottled it. I am fuming. This is a train now.
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Same here Dan 1.85 now seems a long way off !!! Gutted for bottling up
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I could cash out now for zero overall. Had a horrible start by laying 3.7 first up half my match stake. Now have a decent green on the draw and of course red on results. My initial thought of the draw bouncing back just because we expect th play to start on time proved wrong. This looks like a train.
@Steam I don't think it will hit 1.9 if the match starts on time. I remember in the Aus v SA test, rain was predicted for the first two days, excluding the very first session. We started on time, Aus were 3 down for not much and the draw was still 1.9 from 1.7 or so. |