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pxb
17 Oct 15 20:52
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Only 4 days to the next Test.

England played 2 Tests here in 2012, and Anderson and Broad took most of the Eng 1st Innings wickets, then Swann and Panesar took the 2nd innings wickets in the second match. Pakistan won both matches.

Cook should make the match closer, but a result seems likely IMO. With Shah back, form says Pak win, although their confidence would have been shaken by the last match.

A draw lay for me.

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Replies: 264
By:
Foinavon
When: 19 Oct 15 16:15
Seems about right pxb.
Looking at past records, I see that the last two sides batting first scored over 400 but in the previous three, first innings scores were under 200. Back to lay could be a bit of a gamble and waiting might mean missing out.

Cook was out in the sun being baked for four full days and a bit of the fifth. Hope he will be fully recovered in time.
By:
Injera
When: 21 Oct 15 17:34
Draw on the drift. Dubai is a quick's delight then spin friendly from Days 3.

Looking to see how many tweakers play and how the pitch looks.

If either team gets to 30-0 the draw will be below 3 I would think.

Despite an apparently borefest in AD, Rashid (on dayboo) ran through Pakistan and set up a very possible result.

I'll be amazed if the draw doesn't trade in double figures in Dubai.

Just a question of when to lay..
By:
mafeking
When: 21 Oct 15 18:29
yep not traditionally such a batman's paradise here. been quite a few low first innings scores recently. certainly wouldn't be the end of the world if you lose the toss
By:
Supps
When: 21 Oct 15 20:37
Hi Gents, first post - maybe down to the fact Somerset has just got broadband ;). I have managed to work some green onto the draw pre match, currently 3.25 and in my opinion worth a lay with this movement up and down.
By:
Foinavon
When: 21 Oct 15 21:03
Welcome Supps. Good to see someone new on the forum.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 22 Oct 15 09:45

Oct 21, 2015 -- 8:37PM, Supps wrote:


Hi Gents, first post - maybe down to the fact Somerset has just got broadband ;). I have managed to work some green onto the draw pre match, currently 3.25 and in my opinion worth a lay with this movement up and down.


welcome. very rate to see new people here. Last new person i saw now has about 30,000 posts lol

By:
Mike-lfc
When: 22 Oct 15 09:45
*rare
By:
posy
When: 22 Oct 15 12:11
opening bet have layed pakistan at 1.9
By:
posy
When: 22 Oct 15 12:23
and followed up by laying draw at 4.3 having taken notice of pxb and injera's posts.
By:
Supps
When: 22 Oct 15 16:23

Oct 22, 2015 -- 9:45AM, Mike-lfc wrote:


Oct 21, 2015 --  8:37PM, Supps wrote:Hi Gents, first post - maybe down to the fact Somerset has just got broadband ;). I have managed to work some green onto the draw pre match, currently 3.25 and in my opinion worth a lay with this movement up and down.welcome. very rate to see new people here. Last new person i saw now has about 30,000 posts lol


Thanks Mike, i've been meaning to join for around 3 months.I find increasingly hard to find a place where cricket traders gather ideas.I'm expecting to stick around but 30,000 posts will either lead to my missus leaving me or becoming so unsociable that only communicating through a computer will suffice. Anyway back to cricket, sadly i have only green on the draw, that was mainly through pre match trading. I will work out of hours for some green on Eng/Pak.

By:
Injera
When: 22 Oct 15 17:16
I find increasingly hard to find a place where cricket traders gather ideas.

Supps - I believe most of the old guard from this place have moved to Twitter.

It's a shame that this site is so quiet. I'm sure by pooling knowledge of cricket and markets we could have fun and make a lot of money.
By:
dylansdad
When: 22 Oct 15 17:52
similar positon for me as 1st test,laying pakistan after day one around 1.82Grin
By:
pxb
When: 23 Oct 15 00:34
I tried to get into Twitter, but too much noise.

You'd have to say Cook will decide this match. Another big one and a draw. Out for not too many and Pak win. Not that I think England can't win but looks like Pak will put on at least another 100 and that puts it close to out of reach for England.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 23 Oct 15 00:44
lay pakistan 400+ at 1.15. should be at least 1.2
By:
wise-punt
When: 23 Oct 15 04:46
Pakistan is not backable at sub even odds so early in the game. I think backing draw till Pak bats is way forward
By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 07:17

Oct 22, 2015 -- 4:23PM, Supps wrote:


Oct 22, 2015 --  9:45AM, Mike-lfc wrote:Oct 21, 2015 --  8:37PM, Supps wrote:Hi Gents, first post - maybe down to the fact Somerset has just got broadband ;). I have managed to work some green onto the draw pre match, currently 3.25 and in my opinion worth a lay with this movement up and down.welcome. very rate to see new people here. Last new person i saw now has about 30,000 posts lolThanks Mike, i've been meaning to join for around 3 months.I find increasingly hard to find a place where cricket traders gather ideas.I'm expecting to stick around but 30,000 posts will either lead to my missus leaving me or becoming so unsociable that only communicating through a computer will suffice. Anyway back to cricket, sadly i have only green on the draw, that was mainly through pre match trading. I will work out of hours for some green on Eng/Pak.


When you say "sadly only have green on the draw", is there a reason you can't split that green across all outcomes, or did you mean something else??  ConfusedConfused

By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 07:38

Oct 22, 2015 -- 5:16PM, Injera wrote:


I find increasingly hard to find a place where cricket traders gather ideas.Supps - I believe most of the old guard from this place have moved to Twitter.It's a shame that this site is so quiet. I'm sure by pooling knowledge of cricket and markets we could have fun and make a lot of money.


I did have a look at Twitter, but it seems a lot of people just making statements and not interested in what anybody else says.  Most of that social media crap is just a place where people feel they must be listened to, and not listen to anybody else.

IMO anyway.

By:
YOMOMMA
When: 23 Oct 15 08:38
layed pakistan 400 at 1.15 for £1k and greened at 2. i am the best,
By:
posy
When: 23 Oct 15 08:44
So assuming Pakistan all out for about 390 around lunch;England could be 200 odd by close of play. Assuming say 2/3 wickets down at that point makes the draw look even less likely so laying the draw now at around 3 seems best bet.
By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 08:46
All out for 390?
By:
johnnythebull
When: 23 Oct 15 08:50
at least at this stage this test much more intriguing than the last..all 3 outcomes well on the card atm
By:
johnnythebull
When: 23 Oct 15 08:52
I did have a look at Twitter, but it seems a lot of people just making statements and not interested in what anybody else says.  Most of that social media crap is just a place where people feel they must be listened to, and not listen to anybody else.

IMO anyway.

a bit like on here thenGrin
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 23 Oct 15 08:56
I don't think England are out of this. Obviously depends here on what Shafiq gets. Pitch looks decent enough. I'm sure it will spin and we will get a result. draw looks in lay territory too as will be Pakistan approaching odds on. The big punt of course is can England bat well? Who is young Shah? The again if Pakistan get beyond 450 that could well be enough to stop England getting a big enough lead. 100 I do not think will be enough ( assuming we can bat against Shah first up! ). Much depends on Cook again. Was going in with a couple of speculative punts but now have confused myself!

Maybe the draw lay to start with.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 23 Oct 15 08:56
doh, baulked at 5.1!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 23 Oct 15 09:01
Riaz will get it to reverse too maybe I am best off out of it!
By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 09:02
Yeah, don't think will be a draw, but not so sure you get paid too much for a while.  The way England bat, they will grind out the runs keeping the draw always in play until the last innings. 
Long way to wait for payoff, at least the way I like to bet.  May get a few early wickets to push the price out, but more than likely see same price draw tomorrow.

I can't find a position at the moment.  Don't think much changes til England start batting, then can see how they are handling it.  Probably wait for batsmen to be comfortable looking for a Pakistan lay should that eventuate.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 23 Oct 15 09:02
it difficult to bet on pakistan matches cos they could fix at any moment. i tend to not bet on them usually. this baabaa at the crease looks like he wants to throw his wicket away right now.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 23 Oct 15 09:07
yeah more Ali Baba at the moment!
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 23 Oct 15 09:08
Laugh
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 23 Oct 15 09:09
baabaa out.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 23 Oct 15 09:10
Quad ergo demonstratum!
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 23 Oct 15 09:11
wrong thread i know but Sri Lanka are absolute dead certs at 1.4
By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 09:12
lol
By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 09:12
Put your bank on it then, and plan your holiday...  Have fun..
By:
posy
When: 23 Oct 15 09:14
BJT what don't you like about my assessment of getting pakistan out around lunch for say 390 ?!
By:
jucel69
When: 23 Oct 15 09:15

Oct 23, 2015 -- 9:11AM, Mike-lfc wrote:


wrong thread i know but Sri Lanka are absolute dead certs at 1.4


Ball is turning square and going through the top.

By:
johnnythebull
When: 23 Oct 15 09:15
had a back of Pak at 2.42..we'll see how Eng go
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 23 Oct 15 09:17
it hit him on the knee cap. What are these commentators watching!
By:
BJT
When: 23 Oct 15 09:18
Bouncer imminent.
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