long term results at the Oval don't bear out the idea that it's a huge toss to win and that's because the pitch stands up well during the first three days and remains okay deep into the game.  So it's not unusual to see very big scores from teams batting second.  So this idea that Aus are a lay if they are bowling is rubbish.  Aus are a lay if you think their bowling is poor AND you therefore think the draw is a player.   If you simply think Aus are rubbish (but don't rate the draw's chances) then it's back England. 

IMO any Cloud cover during any of the first three days will retrospectively make a difference to the outcome (as is who is batting/bowling at those times), and as today is fine and sunny, the winning to55er will bat (obvs), but that doesn't automatically ruin the chances of the team bowling.  360-390 is a typical first innings score here, and as Eng are not exactly in sparkling form with willow (yet) this summer I wouldn't be surprised to see them post such a total or lower.  Aus wont be massively longer than 3/1 if Eng make 350.

I would wait for in running opps to back the bowling side at long prices in the first three days.  Then get involved bigger later in the game.

First innings lead is an interesting market imo.  Got a good return (and trades) at Durham from a starting point of better than 6/4 about Aus, and that was their 3rd of 4 wins in this market this summer.  I don't see much different this time - obvs they collapsed at Lord's - but have looked much better since getting rid of the handicapped Phil Hughes and on basic cricket skills early in the game Aus are consistently as good as Eng.  That they've bottled it at key moments (Durham), collapsed at Lord's, and made a bad decision to declare their first innings early at OT is why the series is at the score it is.  But Eng are not hugely better than Aus.  Series Runs/Wicket numbers are fairly close (32 and 28) and that's got a heavy second innings bias towards Eng as well as the overly weighty effect of the Lord's numbers.

Draw seems like most likely outcome for me with big 1st innings scores posted by each side

Swann better not be injured. Got a nice spread bet on his series wickets.

Simon Kerrigan any relation to the Kerrigans from Bonny Doon?

I like Kerrigan's selection, and giving a young lad a chance with the series decided, particularly with pissgate hanging around Panesar, it's a good selection.

But I'm still undecided about Woakes. If the wicket is really that good you've got to expect the top 5 + Prior to perform with the bat: Woakes shouldn't have to make any difference with the bat and I think in good batting conditions a better bowler is far more of an asset than an inferior one who can bat. With vaughan, would have preferred to have seen tremlett.

Very little.  Just settling in in the office with a few cans awaiting some entertainment.  Lucky for us England aren't batting so there should be something happening...

Very little.  Just settling in in the office with a few cans awaiting some entertainment.  Lucky for us England aren't batting so there should be something happening...

I meant on the pitch!

I thought you were commentating.............Lets' Style

ummmmmm., ok.

So rain is expected?

I'm with you now.

Morning all, anyone else got a random credit in their account this morning?

Cricket Profit Boost - EXC13  9.04

Just in P/L?

morning maxstout, any idea what it relates to? Not complaining, just wondering

Couldn't find anything on mine...

GOD I CANT STAND BROADS FACE

Better than a kick in the pants, TC. And I was lucky enough to have that amount appear in my account

gAAAAAAAWn

Back to pre-toss price...

Gee that ball took off.  Hard to play that.

Tuffers is priceless!

Been to Rome and seen the Parthenon, also threw a coin in the fountain at Trevi and made a wish....England to win 4-0!