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Can't believe ENG traded down to 5 last night - insane!
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Likely Match Situations from here onwards.
a) England have a fantastic morning and rip the remaining 7 wickets out for 60/70 runs. England have 5 sessions to score 350 and they would score 350 in 5 sessions, its whether they could bat that long, thats a big question mark. b) A normal sort of morning session with another 70 runs scored with 2-3 wickets falling. New Zealand lead by around 350 with 4-5 wickets left. c) New Zealand go crackers and add another 100 runs and lose just 1-2 wickets, leaving them around 380 ahead. Now New Zealand will wish to declare and hope to have a 450 lead, unless they are bowled out beforehand, around I'd say 40 minutes before tea, for the fact, that both Cook and Compton, would have to make 2 starts, the 30 mins before tea and then after tea again. Answering to sonofshiner, do you fancy England to either survive 4 and abit sessions for the draw, or chase down 350 in 5 sessions. If you do fancy that to happen, then let the bet ride and if you don't, then take a small loss on the game. |
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thanks cri****,might it be a good idea to see how the early overs go tonight
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just typed your name in and that happened,must of thought i was swearing.lol.
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no way NZ declare in a position where ENG could still possibly win. I reckon they'll want minimum 400+ lead or 125 per session left
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hope NZ bat slowly tomorrow and put england in for the last hour with a lead of 450+ leaving england to bat 3 and a half sessions to send the NZ layers home happy.
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lay mug england = free money . keep it simple
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auckland weather monday 0% chance of rain.
tuesday 10% not much help there ime afraid. |
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Terrible decision by nz not to enforce the follow on. They dont get the chance to win many series so they should have risked more by going for the win without any thought for the other two outcomes.
Would i be right in thinking nz will trade at a lower price to win if they build a lead closer to 350 than 450. |
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what will it take for NZ to go odds against.might it only happen when england are batting.
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Why if your New Zealand do you take the chance of having to possibly chase around 150 on a day 5 pitch? By not enforcing the follow on, all they have done is ensure that it will be very difficult to NOT lose, while still maintaining a position of great strength on the game.
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england to have no wickets lost at the start of the 3rd session of day four.
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But in order to have the draw and the win covered you must give up equity in the win. Fair enough for other teams to take that approach but when your nz and dont get many chances of test wins surely you have to be more interested in winning than not losing or drawing.
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Prices wrong now. NZ too short at 1.55, draw backable at 3.8
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If you are a nz supporter what would you rather have.
No chance of losing the test but only 20% chance of winning it or 40% chance of winning the test and seties but with some chance of losing it. |
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I understand that, but i think setting England a score of over 350 to win, still makes NZ in an incredibly strong position to win the match.
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McCullum's mentality was probably along the lines of why give England any hope of winning the match and series when they have been outplayed for the majority of it
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Kiwi best chance is to get bowled out pretty quickly imo - leaving England something 400 in 4.5 sessions
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Draw definitely worth a ride - could well go odds on at some point if NZ carry on as they left off today
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Disagree nigel - the best chance for the Kiwis is to win by accident rather than design. It's a massive moment for them to win a series against England.
If England have a sniff I believe perversely it will be better for them. Agree the draw back may have value, but it could be shot to pieces by the last session today. |
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quite an interesting position.
i had a big england green which i just dumped in favour of the draw and NZ win. that said I think England can chase 400 down but i am worried that Peter Fulton will block them out of the test will be v interesting to see if McCullum declares given the chance. |
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nz have shown by not enforcing the follow on they are going to bat eng out the game, they wont be declaring wiv anything less then 450
eng looking at between 125-130 overs to save the match (nz look short) |
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if Prior and Bairstow and a few of the other key England batsman improve upon the batting they did in the 2nd innings, can see them defending 120 overs.....but I think NZ bowling has been pretty good this match.
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New Zealand, I beleive, by not enforcing the follow on, have given their bowlers a little bit of rest. Brenden McCullum, is a born gambler, could well declare earlyish, giving England a small chance of victory and enticing them to play some shots, that they wouldn't play, if no chance of victor. West Coast, why has Prior got to improve his batting?
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As i said before englands innings when the consensus was that england will easily reach 450, this middle order for england is soft, for england to save the game trott and cook need to bat the majority of the time imo.
Now the consensus is that batting for 130 overs will be a piece of cake and we will chase whatever they set, Bell, Root and Bairstow, don't fill me with confidence having to save a test on the final day. |
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You are right, Cook and Trott have to bat a long time and its time to promote Prior up to 6
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I have heard a number of people say McCullum is a gambler. I have not followed his career so I have no idea if this is ture. Has anyone got any examples of when McCullum has gambled as a captain ?
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u mugs are thinking too much . no need to think about anything here . laying mug england produces 100 % free money . so easy , they cannot win
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@ Sudoku I may have wrongly worded that, but if some of the fellow England batsman take Prior's footstep like he did in the 1st innings (was what I meant), then they can save/win this match..............NZ want to win make no mistake. McCullum has got his tactics pretty much spot on in this test match in particular Day 3.From what I saw of Day 3 morning and afternoon session, think the difficult stages will be the new ball and settling in (probably need at least 30 deliveries to get warmed up)
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Havent checked his stats, but prior has been remarkably consistent over the last year or two.
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He has passed 20 in his last 11 innings.
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What total do you think England will attempt to chase down? I'm not asking if they will chase it down but what total would they have a real go at it. 350 max?
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Well 350 we would have five sessions, so wouldnt be a matter of chasing it down, just bat the time and we would win. 400 we would prob have 4 and a bit sessions and i suspect we would just bat and if miraculously we were 300/2 with 20 overs to go we might chance our arm. In summary we wont go for anything, we will just bat at least u til lunch and prob till tea tomorrow.
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Very difficult match to read.
The low scoring rates bring the draw into play if NZ bat till tea. No way could Eng score 300 on the 5th day without KP and with Dennis, Trott and the 2 kids playing for their careers. If NZ get rolled over just after lunch, things will get very interesting and the market will become confused. The draw price would have to drift as wickets fall and runs flow. There be too much time left in the match for a draw. |
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Trott isnt playing for his career ffs. Anyway bairstow was playing for his career and did a good job of scoring quickly v saffers at the oval last summer chasing a stiff target. Bell of course should be playIng for his career but will be a shoo in for the ashes regardless.
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Can't help but feeling the Kiwis have a collapse in them and can see England knocking them over quickly. Cook is the key. if he bats well then England are capable of chasing down a big score as he holds the batting line up together
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