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NZ effectively 110-2. If they can bat most of tomorrow you ain't dead King.
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no way these bat 3 sessions
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NZ could still get rolled over cheaply and Windies have to chase 250's , if windies win this test kinger , then ur not in the red , right >?
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They could but another 150+ and big pressure on windies I'd say. Think we'll see the draw come in overnight if the hurricane stays as forecast
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yeah nige , i love all these post stumps market moves ....bookies have the NZ runs lines at 260 so thats a lead of 310, which aint gonna be any easy chase by any means ... lots of drama ahead , especially when you add the uncertainty of when the hurricane will arrive
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Logic tells me NZ will survive most of tomorrow and get say 275+ Windies will then need at least 70 overs to finish off - A lot will depend on the hurricane. Right now it's headed straight to the south of Jamaica. Any movement north and there will likely only be play tomorrow. However, all three results quite possible but certainly I'd have WI out at 4/5.
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Nil desperandum.
NZ fight back has saved me arse thus far. Disapointied by late wickets. I might suggest to anybody in the red to New Zealnad to back the draw and look to lay back tomorrow. I am praying for rain and will be ringing the Jamaican Coastguard tomorrow for an update and will post any news. Also have friends in the Blue Mountains so if they are not in the Members stand I shall ask for news from the Mountains as I think the weather will be coming over them first. Good luck all |
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I dont think NZ would survive tomorrow's day..I think they would get all out by tea and about 120 added to the total which would be about 230 240 for windies to chase. Then its about the time left for windies...i still think there is only one winner which is NZ and the other result is a draw..
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You guys are crazy for hopping on the draw so hard. It's a result venue and 2 below average teams. Even if it's a 4 day game!
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You are absolutely right Steam but!
This might yet be a 3 day game. The 3rd day pitch should not be a minefield and with the sun shining one would hope NZ will bat past tea. Everything to play for I would say with NZ in the box seat. I think there is still time to lay WI. |
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overnight flip flop, insane
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INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY. |
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interestingly the hurricane has moved slightly south thus might not have the impact widely expected yesterday - worth monitoring though at NHC - probably explains the movement out on the draw though.
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im looking at cnn hurricane hq.. can wind stop play?
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interesting thing is all the possible projected paths go north i.e. closer to Kingston - it's more likely that people will lock and and stay at home if it gets really windy - doubt there'd be any cricket!
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The potential hurricane is not coming by Jamaica from South south east till about 2pm Monday. It just depends on how much rain is being thrown up. Could be up to 5 inches but will it reach Jamaica? High pressure over America so not heading North.
Heavily red in WI, small green NZ, big green draw. trying to big the nz green but have to be patient. Am pretty confident WI will be batted out of this match. |
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nz need 105 runs to make WI ask to make a record run chase here.. there price is a mystery
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Whispering - that's not the case now - forecast to be directly south of Kingston around 6pm Sunday :
http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/hurricane.tracker/index.html |
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the play here is.. if there is still a game at the end of play today.. lump on the draw
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if the hurricane path hasn't changed
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i agree kingmax. surely the 4/1 the draw is value?
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my main question is..they cant play up until it hits.. if its going to hit the ground staff will want to board up the place wont they? i cant see everyone playing up until 30 mins before they know the island is in ****...
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oh, this is quite a big change - released 10 mins ago :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/023903.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Now going to be a hurricane force 1 - before passing Jamaica! But a bit further south. |
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unless NZ collapse 5.3 on the draw looks real value - just hit it for a few hundred.
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so lets get some facts going
WI have to to take 8 wickets in the next 3 sessions before a cat 1 hurrican ends the match they then will have to chase a record run chase of 212 or more by the end of the day if NZ get another 105 runs they are already 107 runs behind and there 2.42 favs to do all this? ?? |
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agreed King sporting index have NZ in for 300 plus lead and yes 212 is reord chase and again weather may be a problem from tomoorow afternoon so arguably 2.42 is poor value especialy as 20 runs withouth a wkt they will be 3.0
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they should be 3's already
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hmmmm...windies do seem a good lay at the current price .....they certainly seem less likely to win than the kiwis from the current position ...if the kiwis can rack up a 260 (current innings runs line) second innings total sometime after tea say ...the windies are gonna struggle to chase 300 plus in the remaining time before the storm hits , let alone getting knocked over ...laying anything sub 2.5 windies seems like a decent bet
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I laid the Windies even more last night at 2.68 assuming the price would go out. Couldn't believe the prices this morning!
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I dont think hurricane should be considered now..dont know why the commentators nor any news talked about it..i think hurricane wouldnt be a factor in this match..still my call lay windies...you would be covered for both eventualities.
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steam.. are you acting stupid mate? how can you not consider a ****ing hurricane!!!
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The thing is I dont see that reflecting in the prices...if hurricane is a certainity no way you should see 5s on draw...market aint that stupid..so it is just baffling...may be we are wrong..anyways laying windies should cover both the draw and a result..i dont see windies winning this one...
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hurricane is going to be south of Jamaica - question is will it effect the island - likely I'd say - but there's a chance it passes quietly as it is 150 miles south.
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Above all if hurricane is so much of a certainity it should be reflected in the forecast as well..I see the forecast it shows a big Sun for today and rain but only minimal for tomorrow and monday..so I am not sure if this hurricane thing is effecting Kingston at all.
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steam go the the national hurrican center website mate
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AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. |
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In that case there is a killing available by latching on to the draw..though I am not doing that...I am still not comfortable with betting against a result
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I also agree the plays are to lay WI and back the draw, I would do it in equal measures and leave myself square of NZ or have a bit more on the draw.
-10 -1 +31 would be my ideal sort of ratio currently I have -13 -6 +33 |
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Yeah, we are all getting carried away by this tropical storm, which, is not yet a hurricane. I am praying for rain too but it might not arrive till late sunday.
The storm passes south of Jamaica maybe Sunday night. Anybody not on the draw might be inclined to punt at these prices 5.6 / 5.9 Those trying to cover WI or jump on NZ have different problems till the game starts. Anything could happen. I would expect NZ to bat WI out of this. 250 plus is a tough ask on a day 4 pitch. Anything beyond 250 puts NZ odds on imho but when is the rain coming? I stand WI -1 NZ 0 D +2 Looking to increase green on NZ and reduce red on WI |
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Yeah, we are all getting carried away by this tropical storm, which, is not yet a hurricane. I am praying for rain too but it might not arrive till late sunday.
The storm passes south of Jamaica maybe Sunday night. Anybody not on the draw might be inclined to punt at these prices 5.6 / 5.9 Those trying to cover WI or jump on NZ have different problems till the game starts. Anything could happen. I would expect NZ to bat WI out of this. 250 plus is a tough ask on a day 4 pitch. Anything beyond 250 puts NZ odds on imho but when is the rain coming? I stand WI -1 NZ 0 D +2 Looking to increase green on NZ and reduce red on WI |