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Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
Have Sweden flattened the curve without trashing the economy?
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what % of uk and sweden have been infected? how strong is immunity? how long does immunity last?
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Angoose
08 May 20 18:44 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,073 | Blogger: Angoose's blog Because what gets published on an anonymous gambling forum is influencing government policy, eh. ^ Why the refusal to screen grab and publish the real chart...? Goto: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa Click: Avlidna/dag Screengrab And upload and publish. Simple. |
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Do you know how many deaths have occurred but are not yet reported ?
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Do you know how many people have died because of covid? I don’t. The definitions are sketchy.
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jollyswagman
08 May 20 18:50 Joined: 04 Jul 15 | Topic/replies: 9,133 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog what % of uk and sweden have been infected? how strong is immunity? how long does immunity last? ^ what % of uk and sweden have been infected? 3,175 deaths population 10m at Ferguson rate (0.9%) that is 352k or 3% at Iceland rate (0.2%) that is 1.6m or 16% Numbers obviously higher in Stockholm. how strong is immunity? Do not know yet. Likely to at least give some immunity and block the spread. Jury is out on this. Lets hope there is or forget getting a vaccine. how long does immunity last? Relates to your first question. If there is immunity for year or two that will slow the spread and help it fizzle out. |
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Infection fatality rate is an attempt to work out the true number of people a disease kills, compared to a case fatality rate which calculates the death rate among diagnosed patients.
Because so many people - now believed to be millions in the UK alone - have been infected with COVID-19 but never diagnosed, the true lethality of it remains a mystery. - Decent article with various thoughts on mortality rates. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8293489/Scientists-estimate-coronavirus-kills-0-75-patients.html |
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so trader ou do not know, you are guessing. that is all i am saying, no one knows so your claim that sweden is doing a great job is not correct. i do not know what we should be doing, i am certain of nothing.
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and i read it is mutating slower than the flu which makes finding a vaccine easier apparently.
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that daily mail article is depressing, it gives a gazillion different ifr numbers. confused.com
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Angoose
08 May 20 18:52 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,074 | Blogger: Angoose's blog Do you know how many deaths have occurred but are not yet reported ? ^ Been following the real data for weeks on: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa And there are some increases but never enough to suggest Sweden has not flattened the curve. Your refusal to use your forum privilege to publish the real charts direct for the Swedish health service speaks volumes for your bias in this debate. Disgrace misinformation. |
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There was an interesting select committee hearing earlier in the week and the topic of IFR was discussed.
One of the contributors (forget his name) had provided a range but was subsequently asked to pin it down by an MP. His response was effectively to ask which number do you want ? Many papers written, many opinions expressed, no consensus arrived at. |
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Indeed jolly. We’re all in the dark. Judging by the daily press conferences, so are the decision makers.
A more flexible lockdown would give them more idea at what works and what doesn’t. Instead it’s a one size all approach. |
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The invisible pandemic
Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden’s relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one’s errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity. 1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium. 2 It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect. 3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK’s experience with that of other European countries. PCR testing and some straight-forward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 20–25% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). 98–99% of these people are probably unaware or uncertain of having had the infection; they either had symptoms that were severe, but not severe enough for them to go to a hospital and get tested, or no symptoms at all. Serology testing is now supporting these assumptions.4These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them. Admittedly, countries have managed to slow down spread so as not to overburden health-care systems, and, yes, effective drugs that save lives might soon be developed, but this pandemic is swift, and those drugs have to be developed, tested, and marketed quickly. Much hope is put in vaccines, but they will take time, and with the unclear protective immunological response to infection, it is not certain that vaccines will be very effective.In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a pro-portion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.I declare no competing interests.Johan Gieseckejohan.giesecke@ki.se https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931035-7 |
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that is part of the problem, there isnt a single epidemic there are multiple outbreaks throughout the country travelling at their own speed. the trouble with different rules in different places is that there are lots of idiots out there ....
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And they'll all be in Welsh garden centres come Monday
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3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK’s experience with that of other European countries.
absolute rubbish, the uk does not have a hard lock down, look at all the countries i mentioned earlier. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1251704323035344896/photo/1 greece opted to lock down two weeks before spain, they stand as of now at 14 deaths per million compared to 562 for spain. athens is one of the most crowded cities in europe i think??? |
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Angoose
08 May 20 19:13 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,077 | Blogger: Angoose's blog May 8, 2020 -- 7:11PM, InsiderTrader wrote: Angoose08 May 20 18:52Joined: 18 Jul 02| Topic/replies: 16,074 | Blogger: Angoose's blogDo you know how many deaths have occurred but are not yet reported ?^Been following the real data for weeks on:https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aaAnd there are some increases but never enough to suggest Sweden has not flattened the curve.Your refusal to use your forum privilege to publish the real charts direct for the Swedish health service speaks volumes for your bias in this debate.Disgrace misinformation. I don't have any special forum privileges, just know how to work the system Silly And you still haven't advised the forum if you know how many deaths have occurred that have not yet been reported. ^ I publish the number regularly. They only go up small amounts. I do not think any real number will go over the real peak number on April 8th of 115. Do you? It is clear when you look at the real chart on : https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa That the curve is well and truely flattened without lockdown regardless of how much the 'lockdowners' wish Sweden had failed. |
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19:19Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 11,967 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
The invisible pandemic Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden’s relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one’s errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity. 1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium. 2 It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect. 3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK’s experience with that of other European countries. PCR testing and some straight-forward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 20–25% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). 98–99% of these people are probably unaware or uncertain of having had the infection; they either had symptoms that were severe, but not severe enough for them to go to a hospital and get tested, or no symptoms at all. Serology testing is now supporting these assumptions.4These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them. Admittedly, countries have managed to slow down spread so as not to overburden health-care systems, and, yes, effective drugs that save lives might soon be developed, but this pandemic is swift, and those drugs have to be developed, tested, and marketed quickly. Much hope is put in vaccines, but they will take time, and with the unclear protective immunological response to infection, it is not certain that vaccines will be very effective.In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a pro-portion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.I declare no competing interests.Johan Gieseckejohan.giesecke@ki.se https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931035-7 Rate reply: | reportblock Comparisons are contrived, why not compare like with like They are doing very badly |
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jolly, with respect, are you claiming more knowledge on this subject than Johan Giesecke?
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IT, how did you get the daily numbers from the official Swedish chart in the list form you posted ?
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There’s an assumption that this virus spreads if people breath the air of infected people outside.
I see no scientific evidence for that. There’s also an understanding that so called non essential shops (i.e. a stationers or a garden centre) being open would lead to more infections. Where’s the scientific evidence for that? A distancing policy is supposed to work in supermarkets, so why not in a garden centre? Public transport is surely a spreader of disease at any time. So too international travel. |
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Has lockdown protected people in carehomes in Italy, France, Spain, Ireland and the UK?
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Not when you lockdown too late
Of course it won't, its already there and if you refuse hospital treatment for care home residents it's a death sentence for so many |
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with respect, are the numbers i put up correct or not?
close and possibly multiple contact, indoors seems to be the problem injera. |
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No, not if staff are untested, travelling from home, often via public transport. Lodging them in empty hotels is an option I haven’t heard discussed.
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Sweden's per capita mortality rates are now eight times those of Norway and three and a half times those of Denmark. Factors of 6 and 3 in comparison to their Nordic neighbours 10 days ago, looked bad enough. But They will have to ride it out now and hope for the best. Maybe their policy will look wise in the long run, but at the moment it does not look good.
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Angoose
08 May 20 19:27 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,079 | Blogger: Angoose's blog IT, how did you get the daily numbers from the official Swedish chart in the list form you posted ? ^ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/ Follow the link: Ladda ner data Data som statistiken ovan bygger på kan laddas ner här (Excel) To get all the data in format for a spreadsheet. Your charts look like basic Excel ones so you should be fine. If you need translations just ask. |
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it looks like a guess des, that is all i want trader to admit. too early to know for sure and a massive guess that risks lives.
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----you-have-to-laugh---
08 May 20 19:30 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,902 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog Not when you lockdown too late Of course it won't, its already there and if you refuse hospital treatment for care home residents it's a death sentence for so many ^ Agreed if they are refused that is bad. But remember a third of those who are bad enough to go to hospital DIE in the UK. If older people really are being denied help then the basic stats suggest their chances in hospital would sadly be even worse than 1 in 3.  |
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Angoose
08 May 20 19:34 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,082 | Blogger: Angoose's blog May 8, 2020 -- 7:31PM, InsiderTrader wrote: Angoose08 May 20 19:27Joined: 18 Jul 02| Topic/replies: 16,079 | Blogger: Angoose's blogIT, how did you get the daily numbers from the official Swedish chart in the list form you posted ?^https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/Follow the link:Ladda ner dataData som statistiken ovan bygger på kan laddas ner här (Excel)To get all the data in format for a spreadsheet. Your charts look like basic Excel ones so you should be fine. If you need translations just ask. Obrigado. ^ Sem problemas |
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Trader is a stubborn fellow, you will do well to get him to admit anything.
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i like him anyway, he doesnt throw his toys out of his pram
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"Fake news" as the death data will change when the admin catches up, but especially for IT
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I remind you of the question folks...
Has Sweden Flattened the curve without trashing their economy They have definitely flattened the curve although it remains to be seen if their economy is still trashed from the limited measures they have taken plus the global situation. |
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The correct answer can only be "too early to say".
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