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China stockmarket down 7 %
China stockmarket down 7 %
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More like bye! This is no joke. Pretty well everything could be at risk. There could be some value after an almighty crash I suppose. Perhaps after a market fall of 1/3 or more. I liked the Morrissey comment
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rick santelli (a siren voice amongst the bullsh*ters) just nailed it on cnbc when he said something along the lines of 'the half life of these rotten policies (from the central bankers) seems to be a lot shorter than it was'
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zombie economies everywhere
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Money never sleeps.
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Best time to invest in zombie companies is late October
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Yes we often get an undead cat bounce if the market falls around October.
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"When Joe in the street talks about share prices it's time to sell."
Joe in the street does not have the faintest idea about what's happening. They have not checked the type of funds their pension are invested in since it was set up for them. They are likely to be in funds with over 50% equities. They are always the ones left holding the bag! The people talking about an almighty crash are the growing minority, so you have it the wrong way around imo. Your Fibonacci retracements are not going to count for *hit, even if they do happen to get it right from time to time. Whenever one level is breached, chartists just draw a new line anyway, don't they? "We're not at the buy stage yet judging by the market action; but we're getting there." Where's a reasonable level to buy then? The huge national debts, the pumped up, bubble valuation of companies with dwindling profits and ludicrous overvalued housing prices, based upon average earnings suggest we are a very long way away from it at the moment! I have still not heard anyone suggest positive things to go against the avalanche of risks I listed. I await with anticipation. |
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Money printing?
I know they can't keep doing it for ever, but maybe they can keep doing it well beyond your or my productive life. Hence "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent." |
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I have still not heard anyone suggest positive things to go against the avalanche of risks I listed. I await with anticipation.''
And when you wrote that the market was nearly 100 points up on the day, and over 600 points up from its last bottom. How does that figure in your ''avalanche of risks?'' |
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the markets dont move straight up or straight down. even during the great depression there were rallies which lasted months only to be wiped out as new lows were reached. in 1930 there were two historic dow rallies, the first was nearly 50%, yet at the end of the year the market was down 50%. from 1929 to 1932 the dow lost 80%.
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How can they take peoples precious metals?
How can they know who has them? |
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if you try to sell them they can take them off you. i have to take a form of id with me (passport or driving licence) each time i buy so there is a record of me owning gold, if the government wants they could force all bullion dealers to name their clients.
they confiscated gold in america, people were compelled to sell at a fixed price and there was a threat of prison for those that didnt. |
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Financial repression ... there's another major positive.
Zero or negative interest rates and people buy stocks and assets looking for some sort of positive yield. Again, it might be wrong, it might be not fair, and it will have to end one day. But you might be dead by then. That's why I stick to betting. You actually get to find out whether you were right or wrong, rather than relying on THEM not distorting all but the very longest term outcome in THEIR favour. |
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i cant see how you think money printing and negative interest rates are positives screaming. they are merely ways of delaying the inevitable. if i am faced with negative rates i'll get my cash out of the banks (as long as cash hasnt been eliminated by then!) just as lots of others will, a good old fashion bank run could follow. they could well cause more bubbles in stocks and property.
i've been amazed the charade has gone on as long as it has but accept that it could go on for a while longer. the trouble is lots of warning signs are flashing at the same time and we are on decidely shaky ground now. |
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they are merely ways of delaying the inevitable.
Exactly. And it's already been delayed for nearly a decade. Why not another decade? And another one after that? Savvy investors have been confidently predicting that THEY are merely delaying the inevitable ever since 2007. And still this inevitable crash is not materializing. Hence why I'm arguing that the status quo is a "positive". Remember that the Fed has ceased QE and has actually signalled rate RISES. So there's all that scope to resume QE, backtrack on rate rises and then lower them again. |
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jollyswagman
So according to your logic, the FTSE100 has been in a bear market since late December 1999 when it was 800 points plus higher? |
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i cant see how you think money printing and negative interest rates are positives screaming
It's quite simple as regards share prices. Money printing means more money in the system which has to go somewhere. Low interest rates means cheaper borrowing which should result in growth (profits.) |
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crippen you really are most disingenuous, nowhere does my logic suggest the ftse has been in a bear market since 1999 when it was 800 points higher. i have neither said nor suggested such a thing.
crippen i explained all this to you in october last year, i told you about the bubbles and said what caused them and when they finished. you chose dates to fit in with your pre conceived ideas which unfortunately for you only strengthened my case and you are trying to do the same again here. 1999/2000 was the peak of the dot com bubble and 2007/08 the housing bubble as i told you before. i also explained to you that virtually all the money from qe had done nothing for the real economy but had merely stoked more bubbles, i even named the stock market as one of them. rising stock prices have done nothing for the average person who doesnt own them but have benefited those at the top who do. now a few months later you think you think you are explaining to me where the money from qe went by saying it caused stock prices to go up which is what you didnt acknowledge back then. absolutely priceless. i note that at that time i criticised qe but you defended it. So you disagree with QE? Yet everyone seems to think it has worked including America. Even the reluctant EU have got a programme of QE going. is what you posted. now, on a thread on the politics forum, you are saying that eu qe is a failure; 'Their programme of QE as a last resort has resulted in nothing.' so have you changed your mind and realised that qe is a disaster for the real economy and most people or are you saying british and american qe worked well but eu qe is no good? your position seems to be somewhat inconsistent. |
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so have you changed your mind
No jolly, what I said was that QE had worked for The UK and the USA, and now Europe were trying it. Then later. ''Their programme of QE as a last resort has resulted in nothing'' That's what I wrote. Which is very different to your account of what I meant. You seem to get very confused. |
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I think I do remember you explaining about the market action during 1999/2000 and 2007/08.
It was more or less the same account that I'd given you earlier. |
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i'm not confused at all crippen, you're clueless, that much is clear.
i see your cognitive disssonance hasnt improved. |
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I see your temper hasn't improved either.
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im waiting for 'helicopter money'
 seriously how fooked is economy for that to be even talked about  |
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I made most of my precious metal bars so they won't know about them.
Well as long as they don't read this forum. |
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Europe is now drowning under the cost of welfare bills
When she isn’t shipping in more Syrian refugees, or trying to find new ways to destroy the Greek economy, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of quoting an alarming statistic: Europe accounts for just 7pc of the world’s population, and 25pc of its GDP, and yet it also accounts for a massive 50pc of its welfare spending. The point is an important one. Europe’s welfare spending is out of control, and is on a scale that is both lavish and unaffordable compared with the rest of the world. There is a problem, however. Neither she, nor any other political leader in Europe, has the will to do anything about it. Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, has this week published updated figures on the total welfare bill across Europe. It is rising, and in some countries is getting up to a quarter of national output. Meanwhile, the percentage of spending on stuff like infrastructure or education, which increase an economy’s potential output, is falling. So long as that is true, it is very hard to see anything other than a bleak future for any of Europe’s economies. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/23/europe-is-now--drowning-under-the-cost-of-welfare-bills/?WT.mc_id=e_DM102489&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Cit_New_Tue_9Sections&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Cit_New_Tue_9Sections_2016_03_24&utm_campaign=DM102489 |
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And with the UK's government backing down on benefit cuts again, we're in the same boat.
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