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China stockmarket down 7 %
China stockmarket down 7 %
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down 1% end of close
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Talking of China - I wouldn't wish to be a millionaire or billionaire company owner over there now. How many company executives have 'disappeared' recently?
These dozen or so billionaires won't ever be seen again in my opinion. The authorities have probably murdered them and then incinerated the bodies so that no trace will ever be found of them, ie. get rid of the evidence! |
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saw a analyst om CNBC TV last week
said 2016 market would jump 15% Cry And I bet he'll be shorting it like mad ....  |
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Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.
 In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point. |
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RBS Advice
 . Time to buy like men |
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Chinese stock market about the same now as it was a year ago.
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The difference is that a chunk of it is now owned by the Chinese government.
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ftse100
nearly same price as 10 years ago |
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In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.
cracking financial advice from the banks  |
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If you want to read a very boring book read this
http://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-Financial-Investment/dp/0471389455 Read about over 400 market crashes over the past few hundred years, and the signs of market boom and bust. |
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thx
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China does have the advantage of having seen how the West handled a few recessions and we can expect their state to intervene much earlier than our shower did in 2008.Europe folllowed suit long after us and see where the EU is now.
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Chinese proverb "paper can't wrap fire".
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sell off today
rumour Asia margin calls forced to sell off soon |
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xmoneyx
12 Jan 16 15:27 Joined: 12 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 32,003 | Blogger: xmoneyx's blog ftse100 nearly same price as 10 years ago Silly In nominal terms yes, but if you had been fully invested over the period and re-invested dividends then it would be a lot higher. |
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I'm a nominal guy
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Dow 2200 below 2015 peak
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You can go back nearly 18 years to find the FTSE100 at the same level if you like.
Or pick a major bottom like the one 6 years ago and then the rise looks pretty good. |
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It was always said in the long term stock market was good investment. 18 years and no change seems to be stretching that statement a bit.
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Stupidly I downloaded the Dow daily index since it started in 1896.
I'll post here in a day or two the highs and lows from 1896 to now, and the percent changes from tops to bottoms to tops. It will give chit chatters an idea of where we are on the market rollercoaster. |
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thx
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How the Dow Jones Index (DJIA) has moved over the years since it started in 1896.
I could have made mistakes in spotting the market highs and lows as the file has 32,650 days. The DJIA has come down 11.8% from its 05/2015 high. 17 market highs had an average of +170.6% from the previous low. 16 market lows had an average decline of -37.5% from the previous high. (Note that a doubling of the DJIA from a low to a high is +100%, and a halving of the DJIA from a high to a low is -50%.) Mth/Year____Dow___Hi/Low___Yrs___% move 08/1896______24.4___low_____________ 06/1901______57.3___high___4.8___135.3% 11/1903______30.9___low____2.4___-46.1% 11/1916_____110.2___high__13.0___256.7% 08/1921______63.9___low____4.8___-42.0% 09/1929_____381.2___high___8.1___496.5% 07/1932______41.2___low____2.8___-89.2% 03/1937_____194.4___high___4.7___371.6% 04/1943______92.9___low____6.1___-52.2% 05/1946_____212.5___high___3.1___128.7% 06/1949_____161.6___low____3.1___-24.0% 08/1956_____521.0___high___7.2__222.4% 10/1957_____419.8___low____1.2__-19.4% 12/1961_____734.9___high___4.2___75.1% 06/1962_____535.8___low____0.5__-27.1% 02/1966_____995.2___high___3.7___85.7% 05/1970_____631.2___low____4.3__-36.6% 01/1973___1,051.7___high___2.7___66.6% 12/1974_____577.6___low___1.9___-45.1% 09/1976___1,014.8___high___1.8___75.7% 02/1978_____742.1___low___1.4___-26.9% 04/1981___1,024.1___high___3.2___38.0% 08/1983_____776.9___low___2.3___-24.1% 08/1987___2,722.4___high___4.0___250.4% 10/1987___1,738.7___low___0.2___-36.1% 07/1990___2,999.8___high___2.8___72.5% 10/1990____2,365.1___low___0.3___-21.2% 07/1998____9,338.0___high__7.8___294.8% 08/1998____7,539.1___low___0.1___-19.3% 01/2000___11,723.0___high__1.4____55.5% 10/2002____7,286.3___low___2.8___-37.8% 10/2007___14,164.5___high__5.0____94.4% 03/2009____6,547.1___low___1.4___-53.8% 05/2015___18,312.4___high__6.2___179.7% 01/2016___16,151.4___now___0.7___-11.8% There were some short lived lows where the market then continued upwards e.g. 10/1957; 06/1962; 10/1987; 10/1990. If you exclude four these falls are about -40% to -45% in bear markets. Perhaps the DJIA will fall from its 05/2015 high of 18,312 to 11,000. Historically market average time moving up is about 4.9 years, going down about 2.8 years. |
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chinese market now in a bear territory
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Today's action appears to be different to other days when the index has fallen.
The usual routine is a rapid mark down on opening then sell at that level with the market recovering somewhat towards the close. Then lock the new buyers in with another markdown the next day or later. Today it is genuine selling that is pushing the market down with no support coming in so far. |
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panic
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_48216510.?1452863666 |
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The best ski slopes this year are the stock charts
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It's dropped another 47 points since I wrote that this morning.
The support level around 5875 which had looked so solid has gone. I'm afraid I can't see any cause for optimism now after yesterday's encouraging spring has been followed by further weakness. |
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whats best to look at
DOW or S&P? |
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the dow is the top 30 companies whereas the s&p is the biggest 500. imo a broader measure is better as it will be less biased by large movements in a relatively small number of stocks.
however they have both been artificially boosted by all the money printing in the last 8 years so are detached from reality. the fact is the problems that surfaced during the first stage of the crisis were never addressed and so the inevitable has merely been postponed. i dont know if this is the start of the next stage but i'm sure it will come. as i type this some doughnut on cnbc is saying 'no one with any credibility is forecasting a recession', the problem with that is that the people he refers to never do forecast recession. its amazing that they wheel out these so called experts to pass comment who didnt predict the worse financial crisis since 1929. there are people out there who did see it coming but the mainstream dont give them a lot of air time. |
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cnbc--all coming on trying to protect their positions
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Leon Cooperman says "the market I grew up with no longer exists."
that will cheer up his investors  |
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indeed but they arent that worried as if and when it all goes tits up the politicians will take money off you and me to save the banksters
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http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/lowest-ever-the-baltic-dry-index-plunges-to-394-as-global-trade-grinds-to-a-standstill
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nice work kincsem. imo the baltic dry index is the best leading indicator out there which means we are f*cked
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Unemployment,war and starvation coming to the commodity producers next. Trouble for western banks with exposure to this?
They kicked the 2008 can down the road with QE. How much further can they kick it? Western world leaders have allowed the banking system to become a massive ponzi scheme and now they are in a corner and that what has to be done will cause war and famine. |
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you dont need the the experts to tell you
according to the torys,media etc we were a basket case 6 yrs ago,since then ireland,greece,portugal, spain etc all the countries we were compared to have had massive recessions, cutbacks,massive house price cuts etc,in comparrison we,ve had massive house price rises,more hikes in government,personal debt, so till we stop kicking the can down the rd and have a massive correction of our own,we,ll always be 12 months or the next unforseen cisis from meltdown,2 of the countrys gideon pinned the uk badge on are either in recession or close to it,china,brazil |
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That site, phew they're certainly pessimistic.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ Have they ever been optimistic? Plenty of books on sale all playing the same tune, which is hardly surprising. |
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https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sanctions-middle-east-stock-102835505.html Iran sanctions: Middle East stock markets crash as Tehran enters oil war Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply. All seven stock markets in Gulf states tumbled as panic gripped traders. Dubai's DFM General Index slumped 4.8pc to 2,682.56, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index collapsed by 7pc to 5,409.35, its lowest level in almost five years. |
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they trade on a Sunday?
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could be a nasty day
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