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Chit Chat
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Can we keep this to betting as opposed to the campaign - like proper gamblers
Puzzled by the price on here 4.4 Yes, 1.29 No. I have a small red on this at the moment, obviously puzzled because of the closeness of the polls...so I have stayed away from it for the moment.
Anyone care to venture an explanation?
Update, via twitter, from William Hill is intersting 70% people betting on YES, but 70% of the money is on NO.
NO price to come under pressure?
Puzzled by the price on here 4.4 Yes, 1.29 No. I have a small red on this at the moment, obviously puzzled because of the closeness of the polls...so I have stayed away from it for the moment.
Anyone care to venture an explanation?
Update, via twitter, from William Hill is intersting 70% people betting on YES, but 70% of the money is on NO.
NO price to come under pressure?
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The Scots will bottle it.
People tend to lie to pollsters and opt for the status quo when they're in the polling booth. |
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thought the same last week and had some yes at 3.5
 happy to see it through as think the prices are wrong. From watching the market there does seem to be some big hitters on the No side, 40 and 50k popping up and moving around.No will always be fav imo, so much has been matched at lower prices that will take something definitive to move it out, like the actual result.  Will the market remain open untill a result? ie after polling stations close? |
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I'm bawdeep into the no vote.
Zero chance they will vote yes.. |
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got to be more than zero shirley? Momentum with Yes, polls closing. reckon with the pro No media that has to be more value in yes than no, thats my feeling
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I love value Brendan. So went in about a week @ 1.42. I thought that was value.
Swings and roundabouts, mucker. As for the voters, i just think reality will hit home to the ditherers (and the SAS knocking on doors) |
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yes good luck with your bet, i dont think we will have much chance to trade back and forth which would have been fun
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Agreed. And good luck with yours.
Last time i did that on Politics it was the last Presidential election. I was seeing triple by the end.. |
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..... I think it may be "no", but still anticipating some nervousness in this market- I just decided to go in again, laid "No" - I really can't see much a downside to be honest. Though I have been known to be wrong
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Hi wallflower,
I started a thread about the referendum market on politics a few days back - for pretty much the same reasons.  The tentetive feeling then was that "no" might go up as high as 1.5 This is by far the most I've wagered on any single event: I've laid "No" for thousands at everything between 1.15 and 1.44, traded out on most of my bets already and would be happy if "No" hits 1.5. However, I now think it will go beyond. I think it really is closer than the bookies and exchange odds would suggest, and if I had a small red on "No" as you say, I'd press the "keep" option on whatever green-up position you've taken, wait till the polls open, and enjoy the ride. |
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*Sorry - you didn't specify that your red was on "No", but you get the point anyway.
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The pricing does seem odd.
FWIW I do see people changing their minds to yes, it boils down to what proportion of the vote are those quiet no voters. Maybe those in the know... know that it's a **** vote |
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**** r i g g e d
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The unemployed YESs voters have more time on their hands to protest on the streets and speak to pollsters imo
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...I had levelled out equal red.....just couldn't figure out what was going on; I had laid at 1.49 (yes, I know pretty high - but thought it would only go up) - when it went back to 1.25 /26, I just levelled out at a loss (not much really).
But as I said - can't see it going lower at 1.3 - so went again and laid that for more than before. And happy at that. |
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n the Scotland Independence Referendum, scheduled for 18th September 2014, will there be a majority ‘Yes’ or majority ‘No’ vote result?
The proposed referendum question is: ’Should Scotland be an independent country?' This market will be turned in-play at the start of voting on the day of the referendum. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are solely responsible for their positions at all times.Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market once an official announcement regarding the result is made. However, once Betfair becomes aware of an official announcement regarding the result, the market will be suspended. Subsequent events would not affect on the settlement of this market. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Profit to be made up to and after the result is known. Could be an entertaining Thursday/Friday. Result expected around 7am Friday. |
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.....as a matter of interest - how is it counted, manually or electronically?
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Are there any financial markets that we can use as a proxy to track the polls, ITKs etc. Guess pound is obvious one, no change with that today
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Currency market is waiting on movement of the Betfair referendum market.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11098848/Betfair-pays-out-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html
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.....still puzzled why little or no movement towards "Yes" (and obviously a bit disappointed
) - still happy in shouldn't move in the opposite direction over the next couple of days - so still consider a free-ish lay of No...........but I wish the panic would start quicker |
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Thnaks Schalke 04, figured it was manual - as it is live on tv throughout the night, didn't know the mechanics. Great for viewing / trading if close.
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"And a punter initials AS from West Lothian who wishes to remain anonymous scoops £750,000 win" (on bf sportsbook)
WALOFS  Like they accepted a minimum £1million bet on NO, then pay out as a winner before the result is known. Who writes this bollocks?  |
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Can't be Calvin as he's gone...
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Unbelievable that it is a manual count.
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thats incorrect shalke04 NO POLLING PLACE OPENS A BOX ,the cardboard boxes
 ,are taken ,to a central counting point ,of which there are 32 one for each council region ,once the count is done the info is sent on to the Chief Counting Officer "Across Scotland's 32 local authorities, there will be 2,608 polling places in local schools and halls, with a total of 5,579 individual polling stations inside. In most areas, a maximum of 800 electors have been allocated to each station, a significant reduction in the allocation for an ordinary election in order to accommodate the expected numbers." THERE IS NO CURRENT LEGAL MECHANISM FOR A RECOUNT AFTER DECLARATION UNLESS FRAUD IS UNCOVERED . whats the odds on it being very close and carnage ensuing ? would not be surprised if it ends in court ,not sure the polling/counting process is secure as they make out . |
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The Betfair Sportsbook is paying out a substantial six figure sum on the NO vote three days before the market closes, fully confident that the Exchange will once again be the most accurate barometer of a political vote...
Bizarre. Or nonsense. |
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the cardboard boxes
Always been metal boxes anytime I've voted, and that's been often enough. |
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Ignore the polls. Huge numbers of people will vote who have never voted before. Anything could be underneath the surface. The Betfair "barometer" takes no account of that, or the fact that the polls were well out for the '97 devo referendum, and even further out for the 2011 Holyrood election. I'm Yes so you could say I'm biased, but there are so many unknowns and variables. Lump on No at 1/4 if you like, but the result could be anything, there is no reliable form.
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will there be regional declarations throughout the night as per a general election or do we have to until the morning for just one final result ?
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I've backed No as a consolation prize.
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Separate counts will take place in 32 local government areas, which will then report their results to the chief counting officer at the Royal Highland Centre at Ingliston, near Edinburgh, who will verify them and authorise local announcements.
A final declaration of the national result will be made by the chief counting officer in Ingliston, following receipt and verification of all 32 local totals. Above from BBC website. Not sure if it can be trusted.  |
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Sportsbook max stakes:
YES @ 1/4 £1,000 NO @ 11/4 £363.50 The "NO" Propaganda payout is all about money placed on the exchanges, not one mention in the article of how much has been placed with Sportsbook! WALOFS |
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Is this just a PR stunt by Betfair or are they hoping to influence the YES vote not to bother turning out for a foregone conclusion? Surely not
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from last friday but still relevant
.http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2014/09/13/scottish-independence-polls-margin-of-error/ Polls for the Scottish independence referendum come with a margin of error. Usually this is about three percentage points, which means that for all of this week’s polls, both ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ fit into this margin of error. In some ways polling on the independence referendum is a lot like figuring out whether a coin is fair or not. Toss a coin once and you’ll get a single head or tails; ask someone how they’ll vote in the independence referendum — assuming they will and they’ve made a decision — and you will get a single yes or no. One result is not enough to make a judgement in either case. But do it a thousand times and you’ll have a pretty good idea. Of course, it’s unlikely the coin will come down on heads exactly 500 times out of a thousand even if it is fair. Likewise, if Scots are split perfectly down the middle and you randomly interview a thousand of them, it’s unlikely you’d end up getting exactly 500 in each camp just because it is a random sample. Now imagine if we did the interviews a hundred times. If the Scots were split down the middle: we should expect that, in 95 out of the 100 times we did the poll, we would get a ‘Yes’ value of between 47 and 53 per cent. Only in five times would we get a response outside of this 6 per cent range. This is the so-called 95 per cent confidence interval: the size of the margin of error is half of it, 3 per cent, which can be either added to or taken from the poll’s headline result. So what do this week’s polls tell us about the likely outcome of the referendum? Polling ought to follow a normal distribution, commonly called a bell curve. For the latest ICM poll, which was released on Friday, I’ve plotted this curve. The headline result was a 51-49 split in favour of ‘No’. Both a ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ result in the actual referendum are consistent with the poll, as both are within the margin of error.  But the vast majority of the curve is above the 50 per cent needed for ‘No’ to win. Which means that in probability terms, a poll showing a ‘No’ share of 51 per cent is equivalent to about a 75 per cent chance of ‘No’ being the final outcome. For Thursday’s YouGov poll the difference is even more stark. It found that 52 per cent of voters intended to choose ‘No’, which means there ought to be only a 10 per cent chance of a ‘Yes’ vote. So, what do the polls tell us? First, a ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ outcome are both within the margin of error; neither is inconceivable. Second, this doesn’t mean that we are stumbling around in the dark: the majority of polls have put ‘No’ in the lead which means that it ought to remain the favourite by some distance. As I write this, (at about 4:30pm on Friday) the Betfair online betting exchange has implied probabilities of about 80 per cent for a ‘No’ victory and 20 per cent for ‘Yes’. Given the calculations I’ve just done with the polls, that seems about right to me. However, the polls could systematically be wrong. Their predictions could be incorrect due to more than mere randomness. As the first election of its kind, there’s no way at all to judge how reliable they are. With a record turnout expected, 16- and 17-year-olds voting for the first time, as well as some concerns of ‘shy no voters’ unwilling to admit that they intend to vote against independence and a significant number of Scots reporting they still haven’t decided, there are plenty of sources of uncertainty. |
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It found that 52 per cent of voters intended to choose ‘No’, which means there ought to be only a 10 per cent chance of a ‘Yes’ vote.
3 or 4 polls out today all show 52% so YES price should have collapsed to 1.1 Something strange with the polls or the betting then |
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.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1beb09a0-3dcc-11e4-b175-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DY9hIyfN
A survey by Nomura found that most of its clients thought the market was pricing in around a 20-30 per cent chance of Scotland leaving the union – but that their own perception was of a much higher risk, of around 40-50 per cent. Nomura think its 40-50%, what do they base that on then |
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High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f82b0e00-3daa-11e4-8797-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DYBC0yVw
The opinion polls may be close but as far as the betting markets are concerned, the result of the Scottish referendum is clear: the No camp is going to win. One punter with William Hill is so sure that over the summer he put £800,000 on the Scots rejecting independence, thought by the bookmaker to be the largest wager on a political event in modern history. Even at the short odds on offer – his first bet of £400,000 was at 1-4, meaning he would only win £1 for every £4 placed – he stands to win more than £173,000 in total. More ON THIS STORY Polls put No camp’s lead at four points Salmond urges Scots to seize the day Cameron faces showdown over Scots vows Brown endorses new powers for Scotland Barnett formula risks English backlash ON THIS TOPIC Scotland rejoining EU ‘will take years’ John Kay Scotland can prosper Punters take a gamble on Scotland sticking within the union “We initially thought this would be a niche market and if we took a five or six-figure sum [in wagers], fair enough,” said Graham Sharpe, spokesman for William Hill. “Now we have already taken over £2m and this is the biggest political event we’ve ever been involved with – we’ve taken as much as the last UK general election and last US presidential election combined.” Alex Donohue, spokesman for Ladbrokes, said: “This is on course to be the biggest political betting event in history with an estimated £40m bet across the industry. We took over £100,000 worth of bets this Monday alone.” On the comparison site Oddschecker, the best price on a No victory is 1-4 while the equivalent for a Yes win is 10-3 (meaning that a £3 stake would earn you £10). Broadly speaking, those odds have held for several weeks. Even the September 7 YouGov poll showing the Yes camp had edged into the lead – which sent hordes of Westminster politicians scurrying north of the border – had only a temporary impact. “Up until and including August, the price for No was around 1-9 or 1-10 – much shorter than now,” said Andy Lulham, Oddschecker’s head of marketing. “When that poll came out you saw odds like 7-4 for Yes and as big as 4-9 for No. But we never saw Yes become the favourite – in betting terms, that is still a significant differential.” Betting markets have a good record at predicting elections. “Betting tends to differ from, or is more polarised than, opinion polls,” said James Midmer of the betting exchange Betfair. “In polls people are asked, who they are voting for, whereas with betting people are making a more calculated financial decision in saying who they think will actually win.” Several bookmakers reported a clear geographical divide in betting patterns. Ladbrokes have seen a 70-30 per cent split in favour of Yes in Scotland but the reverse in the rest of the UK. Yes bettors tend to place smaller stakes, perhaps reflecting a perception that there is more value in that side; by overall UK volume, therefore, Yes bets are in the majority, but No stakes tend to be much higher. Aside from William Hill’s high roller, one Ladbrokes customer wagered £200,000 while a Betfair punter recently placed £55,000 – both on a No victory. About 85 per cent of wagers placed on Betfair are for No, even at the unattractive prices on offer. According to Leighton Vaughan Williams, professor of the betting research unit at Nottingham Business School, political bettors are looking at previous elections in concluding a No result is looking likely. “History tends to suggest that polling overestimates the likelihood of a big change, and that voters tend to back the status quo at the last minute,” he said. William Hill’s Mr Sharpe was similarly dubious about the tight polls. “If the polls putting Yes in front are to be believed, people should be banging our door down and helping themselves,” he said. But even with the more favourable odds, “we’re not seeing the sort of money that would reflect that”. . http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/f82b0e00-3daa-11e4-8797-00144feabdc0.html |
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messed up the last post
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