Scottish Referendum / Betting

TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!

what is moving it? ITKs how do they know

Weighed in!

the market is absolutely brutal when it moves

1.06. gsm

be utter humiliation for salmond if they get less than 45%. a landslide for no really if that happens

...its not an exit poll.....madness

yougov, "99% chance of no vote victory" predicting 54,46

hit the market before it hit the news, good old betfair

Must be folk trading out. 1.06 shots (which have been beaten before) should be winning by a distance but this is going to be a close call.

polsters are saying its all over, scots bottled it

Is the sword sharp Brendan?

stings a bit

Good win for the chaps anyways..

Could have been 4-12 mind..

yes surprised how easy it was, hopefully we can see off the rest to

In the last month or so out of all the Scottish people I have spoken to (admittedly none lived in Scotland) not one person said they would vote yes.

Come on slippy, you are an intelligent man, do you honestly think they would say YES ? They have to live down there. Wouldn`t want to alienate their neighbours and friends.

Can we have a spread on what time Salmond concedes defeat?

Dulwich sweatys don't count..

All they care about is their castles and moats..

themightymac 18 Sep 14 22:39 
Must be folk trading out. 1.06 shots (which have been beaten before) should be winning by a distance but this is going to be a close call.


whoever had a 65k lump on no about 10 minutes after the polls closed was not trading out.

No, but the people laying it probably were.

brendanuk1    18 Sep 14 22:41 
polsters are saying its all over, scots bottled it Plain

No need to wait for the polls to know that.

Better to stay as they are as that means they can continue to blame the English for everything.

this is a highly liquid market and you can be sure that someone has got:

i. their own exit poll information 

and/or

ii. information from counters.

1.06/1.07. Graph looks like Man U had just announced the signing of Messi Ronaldo and Jesus.

If anybody thinks this is a foregone conclusion they are in for shock. This is going to be close. NO backers at silly prices will be sitting on the pan all night

Its the yougov poll done today with 54% Yes, 1800 surveyed online. Yougov guy quite bullish with 99% chance of no victory. Sticking his neck out if hes guessing, seemed confident enough

Fair point Mac

No moats around these parts guinness2dear although we do have a duck pond in Tollgate Road. Salmond is gunna get a well deserved bloody nose out of this and if he has any Alberts whatsoever he should walk the plank.

agree with themightymac ---  its absolute boll*x to be 99% sure - not even an exit poll.

yes could be nice little RAMP

Someone doesn't like the feel of that sword..


Word is the Engerlish now want a referendum on leaving Scotland..

Not yours Brendan btw. Yours is up to de hilt..

Why is market so confident on no? Big turnout may suggest otherwise.

exit polls can be wrong, werent they predicting a victory for Kinnock , but thats just why it isnt 1.01, 1.1 translates to 52% yes, so there is still some caution in the market and not taking yougov 99% victory or 54% yes vote at face value.

Nothing has come out concrete for yes, since the sunday poll the other week, only anecdotal stuff and twitter over excitment

Keep dreaming brenda

Brendan: Salmond looked like a broken man last night. Some said he was tired, but the rottweiler who is his deputy was full of life.

He was talking about 'whatever happens - there is work to be done' I think the fishy leader will soon change from a salmond to a sturgeon..

Yes, I think she's the power behind the throne.

Seems like she's read Macbeth.

the bloke who said 99% certain No is currently putting his house on at 1.1

as long as we don`t get a Farage

Hey MM, he will be deputy leader next year and making a kilt tax up..

It wouldn`t surprise me g2d mate

.....there is going to some silly swings in this yet.....for example  a constiuency may be 53-47 for YES, then price shortens for YES, but in fact it was quite a poor result for YES because it was expected to be about 54/55; and vice-versa for NO type constiuencies (and to be honest nobody even know if there is such a thing).

Also, Orkney could be first - but is probably irrelevant in the scheme of things.......unless it really really close...so market movement on this will over-react an then settle back in all likelihood

SNP woman on bbc saying some SNP voters might have voted NO, ffs 

fog delay fog delay fog delay fog delay

* delay due to fog in Western Isles *

fog delay fog delay fog delay fog delay

1 0200-Comhairle nan Eilean Siar
2 0200-North Lanarkshire 
3 0200-Inverclyde   
4 0200-Orkney 
5 0200-East Lothian 
6 0200-Perth & Kinross   
7 0200-Moray 
8 0230-Clackmannanshire   
9 0300-West Dunbartonshire   
10 0300-Dumfries & Galloway   
11 0300-Angus   
12 0300-South Lanarkshire   
13 0300-East Renfrewshire 
14 0300-Dundee 
15 0300-Falkirk   
16 0300-Renfrewshire   
17 0300-East Ayrshire   
18 0300-Aberdeenshire   
19 0300-Stirling 
20 0300-Midlothian   
21 0330- Argyll & Bute 
22 0330-West Lothian 
23 0330-South Ayrshire 
24 0330-Shetland 
25 0330-East Dunbartonshire   
26 0400-Fife   
27 0400-Highland 
28 0430-North Ayrshire 
29 0500-Scottish Borders
30 0500-Edinburgh 
31 0500-Glasgow 
32 0500-Aberdeen

29 0500-Scottish Borders
30 0500-Edinburgh 

big no vote ?

jesus christ, what on earth is flabbot wearing

Abbot talking about the mid lothian question Normal politics has resumed, unlucky scotland your back to being fooked

that was desperate Redwood and Abbott - at least Andrew Neill had the good grace to hammer both of them.

is that lad 16 or 17

he looks early 30s

I tend to agree that ECK will be reasonably happy with a respectable defeat
that way he gets to continue blaming Westminster for anything bad.

Surely its not surprising that some snp voters would vote no. When they normally vote snp its for other things than independence.

If you don't care who wins its very hard not to pile onto no after the pollsters said it was 99% certain. I appreciate these guys numbers don't always translate to true betting odds but 99%......

I think the SNP's popularity might suffer a bit if the NO campaign emerges victorious tomorrow.  This referendum was a ridiculously ill-conceived idea, certain to cause much unrest in the coming months, and voters will remember that next time around.

okay, I am officially calling it as free money.

Electoral fraud in Glasgow

BBC reporter says that Better Together are forecasting near 60% No
in East Midlothian, it should be noted that  that area would be well down
the target ones.

[   This image is no longer available.   ]


Wherever she goes......

"I think the SNP's popularity might suffer a bit if the NO campaign emerges victorious tomorrow."
If the Big Clunking Fist Brown enters Scottish Politics as an MSP, Salmond will find out very quickly what its like to have to deal with an actual quality politician again. He's got used to being the only big fish in a small pond and bullying the little fish.

I'm not the biggest fan of Brown but he reminded a lot of people the other day with that speech that he's got gears he can change to that the likes of Darling or Miliband etc can only dream of having.

Sorry remembered this is a betting thread, don't want an argument, but I've typed this .. so submit ;)

yes vote thrashed in east lothian.

if they can get that result out first the no price will be long gone

There's something about a road accident and the lorry full of votes is stuck in the middle of nowhere for a couple hours? Hope trusted police are guarding it, room for banana republic style tampering in the dark!

Extra few boxes of votes appear?!

someone just had 90 quid on Yes: 60.01%+ at 199/1.

and they want to manage their own budgets. jesus.

1.04

When does it hit gubbsville?

First result getting near...someone must know the count

Gubbsville reached.

That was a shock result really.

form an orderly queue...

a last gasp
just gone back to 1:02

the YES fight back start here

Would need a Hattie Jacques style belly flop to cause any ripples now

Have greened up on YES at 48. Clackmananananshire is so tiny, I'd rather go to bed now and sleep soundly.

1:01 again

1.01 isn't based on that result alone. 

someone knows (much) more.

very probably

1.01 because the 30,000 david cameron's who registered to vote all said no

Because the market is open "in play" it's quite easy to imagine that info is creeping out from the counts that will influence the markets. In fact I'm fairly sure that'll happen, having followed previous elections on BF.

Edinburgh looks home and hosed for NO

East Renfrewshire also a big no.

Not surprising. There was reports on the news of City firms phoning up pretending to be other media firms to get heads up on the new newspaper polls to gain an edge on the money markets so no surprise to think that people would be doing the same to find out to make small change on a betfair vote and then also use it on the markets before.

Aberdeenshire looks a near 60% NO

**** I knew I meant to do something but forgot as was busy.

I'd actually meant to join tradefair and take a position on scottish companies with a view to them rising.
I think we have to open a new account don't we?

Fife which is Gordon  Brown territory also heading for NO

Add Stirling to the NO list 55% or so

SNP heartlands cant even pull in a Yes, ffs Angus, what a bunch of fannnies they must be

When will Salmond or Darling concede defeat?

After 5am was 7/4 with hills. Shortened into 4/9 before they pulled the plug.

reasons for rejection are always a laugh,

"45 left no mark from which a vote could be decided"

Nice one scotland you daft fookers

well thats that.....



NO

2,001,926

55.30



YES

1,617,989

44.70



TARGET TO WIN

1,809,958





After 32 of 32 counts




Electorate 4,283,392

Turnout 84.59%

Rejected ballots 3,429


Away the Jocks....

CNN showed their mathematical credentials during the coverage
.
[   This image is no longer available.   ]

The 'No' party got 52.51% of the votes.

A 1-4 chance that ran at almost evens.

I wonder how many 'No' voters were the youths aged under 18?

A pleasing result. I shall now order a boxload of my very favourite Irish whisky....

Nice one HH...

Oh and send Brendan a wee dram, of course..

themightymac


         themightymac   






  18 Sep 14 22:56 
Joined:   05 Apr 02      | Topic/replies: 10,008  | Blogger: themightymac's blog   



If anybody thinks this is a foregone conclusion they are in for shock. This is going to be close. NO backers at silly prices will be sitting on the pan all night


That's cos they were pi55ing themselves laughin at how easy it was mac.

CNN gave 110% to the coverage then HH

yep, just goes to show it IS possible

How they voted: 16-17 year-olds 71-29 for YES, 65+ 73-27 for NO. Labour voters 63-37 for NO.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/512890984255205376

Expect massive funding cuts to the NHS

guinness2dear
18 Sep 14 23:16
Joined:

19 Jan 07
| Topic/replies: 15,459 | Blogger: guinness2dear's blog

Brendan: Salmond looked like a broken man last night. Some said he was tired, but the rottweiler who is his deputy was full of life.

He was talking about 'whatever happens - there is work to be done' I think the fishy leader will soon change from a salmond to a sturgeon..

A pity there was no market for this..

" A pleasing result. I shall now order a boxload of my very favourite Irish whisky"

Don't the Irish call it whiskey