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Scottish Referendum / Betting

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Replies: 230
By:
everythings gone green
When: 17 Sep 14 09:21
‘shy no voters’ unwilling to admit that they intend to vote against independence


This is significant
By:
Wallflower
When: 17 Sep 14 09:31
Well......hasn't gone the way I thought.  Trade out for a loss now?

I've decided I won't - this might not even be that close -----  it's Yes. I just feel it.....they are winning the war on the ground if not the media.

I have these images from Godfather II when Michael Corleone see the rebels in Havana and becomes convinced they will win......despite the media attack the momentum is clearly there. Also the polls will presumably have ignored the newly registered voters (nearly 30% of electorate) - they registered to vote "No"??? I don't think so.

Hanging tough here.Happy
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 11:14
Most polls have undecided voters between 10-25%. I just don't see how someone who says they are undecided at this stage are going to vote yes.  These undecided voters will pile in behind the no vote. The polls are going to have to be seriously wrong for the yes campaign to make up the difference when these "undecided voters" vote the way you would expect.
By:
Wallflower
When: 17 Sep 14 11:21
@TimReidBBC
Pollster Peter Kellner from Yougov: am I absolutely sure that no is slightly ahead? "No I'm not"



Standard methodology for polls excludes new registrations - its so high here, record levels of registration - I'm convinced this is mostly "Yes", I also believe the "Yes" campaign have made great inroads into the female vote (which was mostly No).
By:
guinness2dear
When: 17 Sep 14 11:49
Brendan hanging on by his fingertips..Laugh
By:
guinness2dear
When: 17 Sep 14 11:51
Yougov had the 'yes' in front all last week, did it not?
By:
DartsnBooze
When: 17 Sep 14 12:02
Out of curiosity, how many Scottish 16 year olds are on the electorate?

There is a single question on the ballot sheet is:

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"


The defining thing for me as to why the "NO" vote will win is:

The Westminster politicians have turned this into a "stay with Britain" plea, and not "stay with England."

This is an important factor that will keep the Union together - IMO.

Then again, who are we to judge how the majority of Scottish voters think? Confused

Good luck Scotland.

NO 2/9
YES 19/5
By:
Alias
When: 17 Sep 14 13:03
everythings gone green 17 Sep 14 09:21 Joined: 17 Nov 02 | Topic/replies: 15,710 | Blogger: everythings gone green's blog
‘shy no voters’ unwilling to admit that they intend to vote against independence


This is significant


Significant ONLY if you believe it. From three months of telephone canvassing, I can assure you there are not many that shy! That said, if you want to bet, my advice again is, ignore the polls. There are far too many unknowns, like the huge number of people newly registered to vote and the expected high turnout. Add to that the pollsters' significant errors in the devo referendum in '97 and the Holyrood election in 2011, and you have the potential for a surprise score either way.

As for Betfair Sportsbook saying they're paying out a "six figure sum" early, good luck to them. They've likely laid the punter 1/6 and had it back on the exchange at 1.4+ the weekend before last.Laugh
By:
Alias
When: 17 Sep 14 13:10
..they are winning the war on the ground if not the media.

Unwinnable war with the media Wallflower, with only the Sunday Herald out for YES and most of the rest full of lies, but his could be the first major political event in which social media has played a very significant role in combating the massed mass media.

Hang on, you're right. Easy for me to say though, I laid No at 1.16, 1.17 and took a chunk back at a much higher price.Grin
By:
Alias
When: 17 Sep 14 13:13
These undecided voters will pile in behind the no vote. The polls are going to have to be seriously wrong for the yes campaign to make up the difference when these "undecided voters" vote the way you would expect.

Sounds logical. but.......

Standard methodology for polls excludes new registrations - its so high here, record levels of registration - I'm convinced this is mostly "Yes",

Will they cancel each other out? Are there really that many undecideds?
By:
brendanuk1
When: 17 Sep 14 17:02

Sep 17, 2014 -- 5:49AM, guinness2dear wrote:


Brendan hanging on by his fingertips..


Laugh yes waiting for the 60% YES exit poll to put the cat amongst the pigeons, play to whistle and all that Grin

By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:25
Agree a sizeable majority of new registrations will vote yes so there will be a cancelling out affect. However, I think some people who have said they will vote yes when polled will change to no and that's a two vote swing for every defection. The voters who said no when polled will not change their vote.
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:30
How can you say the no voters are not "shy" Alias. If you believe the polls there are more people in favour of the union but many of the no voters have been left cowering and afraid to express their true opinions. Proof of this is how many undecided voters there are. I don't believe many if any of them are truly undecided. Its a cop out to avoid saying they will vote no and be labelled unpatriotic by family and friends.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 17 Sep 14 17:36
paddletoe..I agree...a lot of these "undecided" voters are victims of the No campaigns scare-mongering
ie..I wont tell you that I will vote No because someone will attack me or my property...sad but true.
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:36
The rousing speech by Brown this morning which I am sure will make the headlines on the television news tonight was a direct appeal to all these undecided voters when he said if they have any doubts they cant vote yes. I think his speech will also win over some people who have said they will vote yes. It was the best speech I have seen in this whole campaign.
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:38
I would not go as far as to say there was any implied threats to no voters. I think its more a perception of appearing unpatriotic.
By:
pumphol.
When: 17 Sep 14 17:39
Is it possible some voters are just to embarrassed to tell anyone they are voting no ?
By:
erse2
When: 17 Sep 14 17:44
You know, this whole "nationalist strong arming" thing, you hear more about it from outside of Scotland than in it. There are obviously idiots on either side but anyone with intelligence respects the fact it's up to the individuals voting preference.
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:46
Exactly pumphol. In some ways its understandable and I don't think the yes campaign have done anything wrong. Its just the age demographics of their supporters and staunch nationalists are more vocal and visible on the ground. They were always going to shout louder. I am in favour of independence but I am disappointed lots of the no voters seem to be lacking the courage to say what they believe.
By:
Wallflower
When: 17 Sep 14 17:49
Probably - I'd be embarrassed.Cool

Anyway - I started this thread and hoped to keep this purely about the market itself, so my apologies.

Latest Poll is out:

Scotland - @IpsosMORIScot #IndyRef poll:Yes 49%No 51%


>>  I am absolutely sure the 30% new voters who won't have been polled are predominately yes, I would be shocked to be wrong on this
>>  I have my suspicions that the obvious Westminster panic has to be fuelled a bit by internal polls they are not making public
>>  The text of the question "Should Scotland be an Independent Country" is a small but a positive for YES, and small things matter here


Still not trading outHappy
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:56
Is 30% of new registations not having been polled a fact? And even if it was and I agree they will nearly all vote yes its surely a small number when comapared to undecided voters who will vote yes and swamp those relatively small number of people who have not been polled. That 30% of non polled voters ( even if true ) is 30% of new registrations while undecided voters (varying from 10-20% is a % of the total voters.
By:
paddletoe
When: 17 Sep 14 17:57
obv mean undecided voters will vote no.

And don't fool yourself if you think all those people polled who said yes will tick yes when it comes the day. Every one of these yes voters who changes side will be a two vote swing.
By:
pumphol.
When: 17 Sep 14 18:00
Personally the Westminster crowd has done the No vote no favours whatsoever & their desperation in the last week comes over as indeed very desperate.
By:
guinness2dear
When: 17 Sep 14 18:05
4.8 available for any ditherers. Go to the sound of the guns chaps..
By:
Wesdag
When: 17 Sep 14 18:07
The vote tomorrow won't even be as close as has been touted.

I reckon about 55% NO to 45% YES.

Too many NO voters are afraid to raise their hands or voices due to intimidation.
By:
guinness2dear
When: 17 Sep 14 18:08
Brendan: Did ye make any money on the devils club last night?

You could have written that script @ half-time.
By:
tictacman1
When: 17 Sep 14 18:20
Turnover on the Scottish Independence Referendum has been surprisingly high but the market suggests the result of tomorrow's ballot will be 'no'.

We told you yesterday how Betfair Sportsbook had paid out to those backing 'no' and today that outcome has continued to shorten.

It's now a general 2/9. William Hill will give those who want to back a 'yes' result 19/5.

Hill's claim to have had a punter back 'no' to the tune of £900,000 in total over the past few months. The man will make a profit of £193,333.33 if that is the outcome.

If the main market looks all over bar the shouting, there are plenty of sub-markets on which you can bet.

The percentage of the vote the 'yes' campaign receives is a popular one. Sky Bet and Paddy Power both now have under 47.5 odds-on at 8/11.

Firms are also betting on the turnout of the voters and it looks set to be high.

Sky Bet, William Hill and Ladbrokes all offer a series of options and all three firms make between 80 and 85 per cent their market favourite with the latter offering a best of 2/1.

bet365 disagree though and have over 85 per cent as their 13/8 market leader.
By:
themightymac
When: 17 Sep 14 19:13
shy no voters’ unwilling to admit that they intend to vote against independence

More ashamed than shy.
By:
akabula
When: 17 Sep 14 19:19
shy no voters’ unwilling to admit that they intend to vote against independence

More ashamed than shy.


Or not wanting a half brick through their window. Alias has a 95% strike rate. Laugh


BETTER TOGETHER so VOTE NO
By:
Wesdag
When: 17 Sep 14 19:20
Whatever happened to freedom of choice? Laugh

Thankfully there's no intimidation in the voting booth otherwise YES might stand a chance. Cool
By:
themightymac
When: 17 Sep 14 19:30
Only intimidation is in the media. Scaremongering at it`s worst. Thankfully it`s backfired. Many undecided voters voting YES now because of it. Real Scots don`t like getting bullied. Grin
By:
themightymac
When: 17 Sep 14 19:34
Off to the pub now for a few glasses of SCOTCH and a HAGGIS supper on the way home. Crazy Cheers
By:
akabula
When: 17 Sep 14 19:41
Mac I've seen loads in the streets and mostly aimed at people wearing NO badges.
A neighbours car covered in paint as was their driveway. Maybe it was just a coincidence that they were showing a NO poster in their window eh.

Look on here.
Calls of cowards, sheep and insinuating that people are ashamed to admit they are voting NO, we even had one saying he'd like to shoot all NO voters.
I don't see the same vitriol towards anyone voting yes.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 17 Sep 14 19:46
accie thats prob cos most no voters have as much passion as fencepost.
By:
akabula
When: 17 Sep 14 19:54
accie thats prob cos most no voters have as much passion as fencepost.

LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh Proving my point.
By:
Wesdag
When: 17 Sep 14 19:57
Correct akabula,

that's how the anti-English bile usually manifests itself.
By:
Shrewd_dude
When: 17 Sep 14 20:42
http://www.buchanobserver.co.uk/news/local-headlines/referendum-signs-vandalised-1-3542353
By:
DickTurpin
When: 17 Sep 14 20:48
I'm a NO voter and there is zero intimidation, total bollocks that line.........................
By:
brendanuk1
When: 17 Sep 14 20:49
Your filling out an online survey or answering the phone, not broadcasting it out your front bedroom. These "shy Nos" are seriously over played imo

No didnt partake with the redsh!te. They will be seriously struggling without Suarez
By:
DickTurpin
When: 17 Sep 14 20:50
and NO will win easily.....................
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