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I agree Rease .
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You could have 11/1 after he won the KG. I am not sure today proved much, except that there is a minor worry about his control of his back legs... would not be bombproof landing at downhill fences imo.
I think he is a leading contender... but I wouldn't take fives now. I am not sure he will be shorter on the day. |
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all his RP ratings at Cheltenham are similar or greater than the ratings he was getting at other tracks at the time, I am not remotely concerned by the course form. He has improved massively this season, a totally different animal
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Presenting Percy shorter than Clan Des Obeaux even after yesterday's performance? Bookies need certification, and sectioned for sure!
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I thought one that went under the radar was Anabile Fly yesterday. Thought he ran well and surprised nothing was said afterwards.
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anibal fly did run well, a good prep ,it looks a case of if the 2nd season chasers are superior to the established chasers if ya think its one or the other then it narrows it down but its still a puzzle to sort out ,i am favouring the 2nd season chasers myself ,clan des obeux ,bellshill,elegant escape ,kemboy barring the betfair chase have took the won best trials and with improvement probable i will favour last seasons novices just the matter of sorting which one ,already backed shattered love and elegant escape .
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Clan Des Obeaux is still has a leg at each corner, which is all yesterday's 2/5 romp by the King George winner confirmed (mind you, that's more than we can be sure about serial absentee and ante-post favourite, Presenting Percy). Will he act on the course, will he get up the hill as he tries to win beyond 3 miles for the first time? Maybe; maybe not; yesterday's win over Terrefort gave us no evidence. I cannot see why you'd be moved to back him now, if you were not already on after Boxing Day.
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I'm a big fan of Percy but CDO is a serious competitor in this, said before but the impressive part of the KG was through the race, they were going a stride too quick for him throughout, that's what gets stayers who need a stiffer track beaten, he suffered that and still had the quality to survive and finish the race off, coming back on the bridle if you will!! That's a real sign of his class IMO.
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The price of CDO is contracting contrast to PP, and only a few decimal points separate them; later today the rightful fav will probably emerge, I hope, to reestablish the proven criteria of form over sentiment, and bring confidence back to the market.
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I don't think Anibale Fly went completely under the radar as the pre-race 33/1 is no longer available. I thought that was the closest thing to any value in the market.
With a little bit of cut (the ground wasn't that testing on Saturday) he must have a chance of equalling last year, if not better. Might Bite is no certainty to beat him again. I am not sure Native River has had as good a preparation as last year. He has basically hit his head against a wall in two unsuitable races. Presenting Percy could be the class act but it is hard to argue he has had a great preparation and Gold Cups are rarely won by horses with his run style. There has never been any value in his price since he crossed the line in the RSA. |
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Gold Cups are rarely won by horses with his run style.
what do you mean by this post differentdrum? |
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Two out of the last 3 have won with his run style haven't they
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A horse who sits off the pace and cruises through on the bridle.
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a huge amount of horses have won with his run style differentdrum so i think you are talking nonsense
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best mates first 2 victorys held up in rear
kauto star held up in rear synchronised held up in rear lord windermere held up detached the sample also has most held up, so his run style is no negative imo |
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in fact the spread over runners since 2000 is fair whether you are a front runner, prominent runner, mid division runner or a complete hold up horse, so pretty fair all round
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What do we think of the Mullins horses....
- Kemboy - Al Boum Photo - Belshill - Invitation Only Law of averages suggest Mullins must be due to win the Gold Cup |
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Bellshill big chance imo.
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2 horse race for me now, PP and CDO, unoriginally first two in the market but there you are.
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If this was a 2-horse race it would be NR and CDO ie the defending champion against the pretender; PP does not even come close, I firmly believe unless one is a supporter.
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PP to win and NR to place.... Kemboy is a fly in the ointment and Elegant Escape could stay on for a place at a big price. So many second season chasers, I wouldn't put people off any of them.
CDO is a place lay for me all day... his graded form around Cheltenham is not good enough.... 8 times fave and 3 wins in his career.... he has small field form all over the shop (only one run in a race with over 10 runners = 6th)... KG always has to be respected whatever the result but really, wins that at 10's then gets in a 4 runner race at 2/5 on and is now near fave, I just don't see it. ![]() ![]() |
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I couldn't have Kemboy, his big piece of form was a joke race, they crawled and in a 3 mile chase coming off the home bend you could throw a large horse blanket over the whole field.
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Not sure the form was a joke duffy, Monalee and Bellshill have come out and won since....granted you will no doubt pick holes in those races as well, as they cut up, but it at least showed the well being of the horses in graded races.
And you might have thrown a blanket over them turning the bend in the Savills....but not at the finish line! |
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Not arguing that a hold up horse cannot win the Gold Cup but I don't think any of those mentioned won their Gold Cups in the same style to Presenting Percy cruising round on the bridle in last year's RSA.
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I believe CDO is a different horse to his juvenile days, and he's still only 7. The KG was a 1st hint he's matured and progressed; the Denman was confirmation. And, his pulling-away from Terrefort at the business end was eye-pleasing (accused of idling once infront), and augered well for the Cheltenham hill.
As for PP, I shall leave his connections to their own devises; the Savill Chase's form is inferior. |
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Take a day off
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I get the impression Mullins thinks Belshill is his best chance despite Kemboy being shorter in the market.
Wouldn't surprise me if it is a Mullins 1-2-3 as he's got 4 great chances imo. |
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More likely 4,5,6.
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impossible123, I don't want to get in the way of the tussle you and irishone are enjoying over PP, but I do take issue over one thing.
You keep repeating, ad nauseam, that PPs RSA win should be downgraded because he 'only beat a non stayer' in Monalee. Take Monalee out of the race and look at the form again. Ballyoptic went on to get touched off in the Scottish National, a race in which the first and third were both very well treated at the time. And Elegant Escape, whether or not quite up to Gold Cup class, has strung together some unimpeachable in the Ladbroke, Welsh National and at Sandown. I am a fan of PP, but I am not for a second claiming the price is right. But for you to keep insisting that there is no form case to be made and it is ALL just hype, does not stand up to examination. |
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I cannot remember saying the RSA should be downgraded. However, I've consistently said PP beat a non-stayer in Monalee (I firmly believe that), and I read somewhere even his trainer hinted he'd have run him in the wrong race last Cheltenham. On the other hand Ballyoptic (B) and Elegant Escape (EE) are stayers, the latter a big fancy in the Grand National, and improving progressively.
PP could turn out to be a very good horse, but not until he's actually battled with Gold Cup runners; a Listed, RSA and Gd 2 hurdle winner does not automatically make him fav for the Blue Riband; he needs to find at least 7lbs to match NR, and probably CDO on what he's achieved so far. Tiger Roll won The Triumph (Gd 1); Grand National; a Gd 2 hurdle. Does that mean he'll be fav for the Gold Cup (if running)? Of course not despite having much more experience than PP. However, one can safely and confidently deduce PP was "well placed" to stay unbeaten post his RSA victory. |
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impossible 123 Fair enough, and I appreciate that, unlike many on here, you are putting the effort in to assess them on form and make a judgemment. Just looking at the race again, I think we could be in for a superb treat this year.
I think the Mullins trio are all interesting in different ways; think Native River might give it a right go and think Presenting Percy may well prove the real deal, especially if the going is good ish. But the more time goes on, the early bet J am most excited about value wise is Clan des Obeaux. The way he pricked his ears and went back on the steel when he turned for home, and then picked up when shaken up, is as eye catching as anything I have seen this season over fences. I can't wait. |
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It's a discussion board for horse racing thus all opinions are welcome, and accepted as genuine and sincere and nothing personal.
I hope once again I'll have my two principal runners battling it out at the last fence similar to last year; the reigning champion vs the young pretender and King George winner. And this time I may do a rfc. |
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Yes but a lot of what you come out with cannot be genuine because if you knew the trainers involved there's no way you could reach your conclusions.so in that sense your opinions are not genuine in any way whatsoever.
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I agree with muse here, Clan des Obeaux for me, at 7 years of age there is still more to come from him and the way he won the Denman, albeit against horses he should have beaten suggests there may well be more to come from him, backed him a few weeks ago at 10/1 each way and I'm quite happy to sit on that.
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What a load of tosh.
So because one does not know a trainer he cannot have a genuine opinion??!! An opinion can be wrong.....obviously,dont mean it aint genuinely meant. |
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I agree with buddeliea. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
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Past experiences tell me to stick with what I know, what works and what brings me reward which in this "game" are form lines, potential and and prep eg running in the best and relevant trials; horse racing is only a game. As such do not over complicate matters - either a horse wins or it does not.
Last season I'd big bets for Might Bite (MB) going into the King George (5/1) and Gold Cup (8/1) after he won the RSA. Nevertheless, the emergence of Native River as a strong contender - NR won some good races prior to running 3rd at 7/2 to Sizing John on good going - and the none-to-convincing win of MB in the KG forced me to I rejig my bets and include NR - he was only 7/2 against Sizing John on good going the previous year - but unloved here at 16/1 (I only got 10/1 and 8/1). And the rest is history. I hope the emerging horse this season CDO can emulate NR next month at the same Festival. |
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Very frightened of CDO now but I have Native River as my ante post bet and still think he is the one to beat. Tizzard is in very good form recently and the King George is not his race. I also think that Thistlecrack is still right in the mix.
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I’m of the same opinion Sage. I still need to see CDO run to the same level away from the “park” courses before I believe it.
Thistlecrack and Anibale Fly are the value at the moment. |
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Watched a preview show yesterday and there are concerns over CDO's jumping to the right. On a left handed track with 22 fences it is expected to cost him 11 lengths minimum. Personally if he does jump right on the day I have noticed that when they get tired it costs them even more than that. All these little corrections become exponential. Not saying he can't win but the minimum winning number has to be OR170 - meaning he will need to run to 181 and more likely 190! Kauto Star was rated 193 in his prime with Denman a miserly 182. That is the measure of the task for CDO. A visor may help.
ODC current BHA OR is 173. |