Cheltenham Festival
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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2019
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2019
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Competitive? A premonition say no; another decisive winner, I believe. Whether from a new winner or the reigning champion Native River successfully defending his crown, who knows for sure.
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I suppose native river, sizing john and mite bite all coming would have made it a great one .
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I'm disappointed about Sizing John, him and PP were my two against the field at the start of the season, must be too late for SJ now.
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At least SJ could still turn-up, mine Our Duke (RIP) was sunk ages ago.I'm hoping for an all English affair.
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All English affair .....that will be the day....Gordon, Willie and Joseph will absolutely slaughter ye.... As for that d1ck yesterday greatprix ....I have the best horse in England and Ireland..... Despo !
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I put up Bellshill yesterday as that was a very solid run.
However I watched Kemboy's last race today, and that was stunningly impressive. If you didn't know the result, you would assume monalee would have got past him easily approaching the home bend, but then the Mullins horse just seemed to pull out another gear. he just strode away and destroyed a decent field. I think he'd win the ryanair doing handstands if they ran him in that, but I wouldn't be too concerned about him staying the gold trip. You don't run away from them like that if you're a doubtful stayer. anyway after watching that I'm not longer interested in backing anything else in the race.  |
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Agree, good horse, highly rated
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Disagree........both appear happier pulling back on the farm.
Vitriol (IRE).....violent hate and anger expressed through severe criticism Not amongst the entries yet ...... Plenty of it on a few threads. |
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Visually Kemboy was impressive and he may well win the GC but I personally don't believe that we saw anything in the Savills chase relevant to the GC.
He ran away from them because he was essentially a quicker horse and was best placed in a race that posed no stamina question at all, the race was slowly run, coming off the home bend in a 3 mile chase you had 11 horses within 4 or 5 lengths of each other even the jockey himself questioned it. Yes he may stay and win the GC but that piece of form didn't show it IMO. Out of the two new kids on the block I'd much prefer CDO whose performance in winning the KG deserves extra credit as through the race he was never really at ease, they were always just going a half stride too quick for him around there, but his jumping and it appears , class, kept him in the mix and the further they went and stamina began to play a part he ended up back on the bridle and in the process defying what nails most horses who have to go too quick too early, it didn't do for him, he's very classy. I don't think he'll win the GC as I think PP is something special but CDO would comfortably be 2nd best for me and a danger. |
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Good horse, decent stayer, made mistakes when second to guitar pete but got round, needs it heavy side of soft , but question .....has he won on anywhere thats not a galloping track ?
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Don't think he has.To be fair though we do get horses taking to Cheltenham,and don't think that is a reason not to back him. Nor is the ground imo, he has won on decent ground,and think good/soft or soft would probably be best for him.
Not had a bet on CDO,but hes an improver and was impressive last time for sure. One I really like now is Bellshill,and I do have a nice price for him thanks to the Dublin/Cheltenham double offer. I thought that was a great prep the other day,and hes one that has improved a lot from his novice days,jumps well and stays well.The Gold Cup could just be tailor made for him. Like said before though, very competitive race and quiet a few could win. |
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If ground was soft or worse on the day the reigning champion NR would be the one. Next best could be CDO and (PP or Kemboy) after. I just cannot see Bellshill in the frame as he was put in his place by Kemboy; his win against RTR (who needs to be held-up but unable to) was mediocre, I firmly believe.
Like always this game is mainly about opinions when formlines are not available and/or comparable. |
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It's hard to form a strong opinion on this one.
If it came up soft, you'd want to be with Native River again, but he looks like that battle last year may have diminished him somewhat. I'd fancy Elegant Escape to run into a place and maybe even grind them all down on soft, if it's going to be a shock Gold Cup, he's the one I would expect to deliver it. Which of course brings PP into the equation, but having missed the prices I couldn't take him now on potential alone. I wasn't convinced by Kemboy or Clan Des Obeaux at Christmas, I think the races fell into their laps, but it's easy to see why others like them. Mite Bite looks done. It's a fascinating renewal. |
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Yes Imp,Bellshill was beaten by Kemboy,i expect them to reverse in March.
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i thought very difficult to evaluate the strength of sundays win as Road To Repect barely jumped a fence was beaten a sh and must have given away 10l on the way round.
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Not sure about 10 lengths,but i get your point.
Still think that Bellshill will be the best of the Irish in the Gold Cup.....unless PP is as good as some say. |
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think it was abt 10 Budd several fences 2l up going in came out level but the best of the irish if not Percy will be TEP
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Also we can say that Bellshill jumped really well and gained ground during the race,maybe that losing ground by RTR was a mixture of both?
Ah yes, i forgot about your fella lockup, wish you luck. |
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yes you are correct there but i think if i owned RTR i would be disapointed with his jumping going forward to Cheltenham.
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A fascinating renewal as stated above, lots of ponderables. I feel much like I did before the KG, some brief thoughts atm.
Presenting Percy: Potential star, very impressive in last years RSA, stormed up the hill. He's the one I can see win easily, not a backing price for me this far away. Not concerned about his prep so far, plenty of faith in the trainer. Native River: Has not looked the same horse to me this year, I appreciate he's not had his ground but I've seen him perform better on the type of ground he's encountered this season. Has had plenty of tough races in his career I fancy they are catching him up. CDO: Young, progressive and the King George winner, plenty going for him, 8/1 is a very fair price currently. Kemboy: The longer trip seems to have unlocked plenty of improvement with this one, and is firmly in the mix, only slight niggle for me is his chelt form is not great. Bellshill: Very good performance the other day, but he is not a Chelt horse for me, has had a few goes and did not get up the hill in the RSA. Thistlecrack: Ran well in the KG and I can see him run well in this, but an 11yo? His time has surely passed. He'd bring the house down if he did mind you. ABP: Not convinced this one is a stayer, unproven at 3m as yet, certainly impressive last time. One for Ryan Air maybe, given trainer has other liklier candidates. Might Bite: Nowhere near as good this year as he was, last years GC may have took him to the edge. RTR: Good run last time out, but not jumping as well this season. Likes the course though and could run well if he gets his ground. Frodon: You can currently get 20/1 for this 169 rated chaser, and that could look really big afterwards, seems to have progressed again this season, still only 7, I like him. Sizing John: I think time might be running out for him, would be a big ask to win this coming back from injury, need to see him run beforehand. Elegant Escape: Will get tapped for speed but can see him staying on past beaten horses into a place. Invitation Only: Bellshill will run in this, so he'll end up elsewhere I fancy, has plenty to find. Definitly Red:Trained with this race in mind all season, and can see him run well, decent ew price. BDM: Surely not. Nothing else worth mentioning I dont think. If I was betting right now it would be the Nicholls pair I guess. Not to far away, exciting times. |
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I’ve dumped my Road to Respect bet and moved it onto Waiting Patiently in Ryanair. Think Native missing Saturday could be a good thing if Percy gets into a duel.
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GI MAC - I agree with much of your analysis. But Frodon was at the limit of his stamina the last day; this is another half a furlong and will almost certainly be better run. I think he will get found out as a result.
FWIW I only stopped backing PP when there was no 6/1 left. Nothing I have seen this year makes me want to change that position, though I would rather not see very soft ground. |
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You may well be right muse, jockey is adamant Frodon was idling; who knows, were all guessing until he tries the trip.
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They do seem to like to use the word idling!
Im on the side of running out of stamina in Frodons case,but yes we are guessing really. |
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Aye. It's the race I'm looking forward to most this year I think, lots of ponderables.
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Let me nail my colour to the mast. If Frodon wins the Gold Cup I'll walk to the Epsom Derby for the next 10 years!
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Classy performance that from CDO.
Of course should have won well,but plenty to like with this one,certainly improved a lot as the seasons gone and probably still is. |
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Pretty much perfect prep i would say.
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A stronger pace would have seen him win by a lot further too I think, a very big player.
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Yep,totally agree, strong traveller and very econimical jumper.
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Should be clear favourite, had a we bit of 7/1 with unibert
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That was a good performance; cruised along and jumped well; button pressed, whoosh...gone. He's 7/2 with 'betvic**, 7/1 with cowboys. I firmly believe he ought to be clear fav, I firmly believe; deserves it, and most important of all...improving leaps and bounds.
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clan des obeaux won't win the gold cup. flat track horse all day long.
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I have only backed Native River so far but if I didn't have an ante post bet on my book I would be backing Clan des Obeaux.
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I believe we may have seen the winner today ie Clan Des Obeaux (CDO) esp if Native River (NR) does not get his ground or underperforms. As for Presenting Percy (PP) bring it on Mr Kelly! You cannot wrap him in cotton wool much longer; his day of reckoning will arrive soon.
I expect CDO to usurp PP at the head of the market over the next few days; 11/2 with 'sly' (nrnb) is value personified, I firmly believe. |
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no doubt a very nice prep performance and agree will now go to the head of the market but still not sure Cheltenham his track but has improved immensely this year may well come there pulling a train the race gets more and more intriguing.
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Not sure Tizzard was that bothered watching today. Kelly maybe.....
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Thought it was an awesome run from CDO,the only way to knock it is maybe not quite top notch opposition and the small field,still facile.This GC looks the most open for a long time,confused cup.com for me anyway.
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CDO's Cheltenham course form looks perfectly respectable to me - not outstanding but respectable - two of the horses who finished in front of him in Ivanovich Gorbatov's Triumph were Apple's Jade and Footpad with the likes of Frodon and Sceau Royal finishing behind him.
The day he just got beaten by Whisper in the Dipper (albeit in receipt of 5lbs) was the day he turned 5 and he was still only 5 when 2nd in the Caspian Caviar off top weight. Admittedly he has no Festival novice chase form as a reference point but personally I would n't hold that against him. I was a little sceptical prior to today but it's clear he's progressive and there's very likely more to come. A major contender. |