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I hope you're right cyclops- would like to see kemboy win, and mullins win in general- only because I feel this would be a glaring omission on his C.V.
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btw what do you think of al boum photo mate?
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thing is with Kelly he will either look a genius or get slagged off for not running percy over fences.
reminds me a bit of best mates prep, wrapping him up in cotton wool. |
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must admit the more I look at mullins three runners in this, the more kemboy strikes me as the only one who can win
if you look at the savills race Bellshill made some sort of move in the straight but wasn't really gaining on the leaders at the line. al boum photo ran a decent race in the RSA but made a few mistakes and when he fell he was clearly held. unless he's improved a lot he's not going to be good enough. kemboy is the one who's improved imo. |
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Ruby to ride Photo if ground
SOFT ![]() |
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surely no one will be brave enough to bet against mullins breaking his gold cup drought?
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Belshill all blue on oddschecker.
8s with 2 books. |
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Kemboy powered away from them.
No one was making any late gains on him either to my eyes. |
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I think it's the Walsh's effect - he's chosen him; the Exchange prices - apart from PP - are out of kilter with the high street bookies.
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TIZZARD'S are flying at the moment
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Will NR retain his crown? Will it be a day of reckoning or jubilation for CDO and/or PP? A clean and sound race for all, I hope.
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its not just about the 3 at the head of the market imp! there are plenty with a chance .
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gonna be a true stamina test ,native river gotta pour it on and bris de mai likes to be in the van whatever wins gonna need to stay every yard .
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Native River is friendless (8.4 and still drifting) similarly Presenting Percy (slight drift) both possibly due to the drying ground. But, money for Clan Des Obeaux (5.6 from 7), and he'd start fav.
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My thoughts on the day :
Bellshill is my choice as the most likely winner ,he looks tailor made for the battle up the hill. Clan Des Obeaux , poor record at the track , don't see him finishing well. Native River , thrown at ever fence last year and got away with it , don't see this happening again. Kemboy , don't see him staying. Thistlecrack , too old now. Invitation Only ,could place like Djakkadam who came from the Thyestes Presenting Percy , the word genius will be banded about if he wins , don't think he will. Double Shuffle - will not stay. Yala Enki - will stay and finish out the rear Al Boum Photo - reminds me of Total Recall , not a good enough jumper. Shattered Love - not good enough Definitly Red - under the radar this year , if it is a slog he is the outsider for me Elegant Escape - Run in the right handicaps this year . Might Bite - Can't see how a slog in soft ground will suit him as he has emptied the last two runs. Bristol De Mai - Trainer interview will be great if it wins this . Anibale Fly - Light prep for this at Aintree, worst outsiders. 1 Bellshill 2 Definitly Red 3 Invitation Only 4 Elegant Escape 5 Anibale Fly 2pts win Bellshill 10/1 2pt e/w Definitly Red 50/1 Ante post bets to win Anibale Fly 60/1 Kemboy 55/1 Al Boum Photo 36/1 Bellshill 27/1 Shattered Love 32/1 Bristol De Mai 60/1 Clan Des Obeaux 29/1 Thistlecrack 34/1 Good luck to all with their punts. |
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I'm puzzled as to why so many commentators and professional pundits think this is an open Gold Cup. Is it?
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At least six of them would tempt me but so far I am on Native River ante post, Clan des O. today and Thistlecrack place only. In addition to those I would give a chance to Might Bite as the ground is less testing than last year when he looked long odds on at the second last, Bristol de Mai who is such an enigma that he could finish anywhere and that is without any of 5 Irish possibles. The ones I can't quite see are Elegant Escape, Definitely Red, Double Shuffle or Yala Enki.
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is it ? look at the betting if you can see past the front 3
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my 3 are elegant escape ,invitation only and shattered love ..................good luck all !
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If I do not win I hope some of you do. Good luck! And I hope every runner returns safe and sound - that's the main objective.
Post this race, an anti-climax for the NH season (Aintree and Punchestown no comparison) very similar to post King George until this week. But no worries, the Guineas Trials will be upon us soon. |
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well done winners great race
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Yes was alas my bet never got further than 1st and 2nd PP not good enuf £100 ew and £100 win but still up a monkey but better year's when been more conservative when I'm front but thought have a go also had £50 ew invitation but there you go roll on Bun Doran
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Well done backers, and long overdue for Townend and Mullins. CDO and NR ran their hearts out...just not good enough on the day for differing reasons, I believe - another day for them, I'm sure.
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Only just watched the race (other than the GN I don't watch any racing live)
The main point I have is the very poor quality of jumping. Only Bristol De Mai really travelled and jumped. The winner travelled well but did not clear all the fences well. Presenting Percy was never going and was always stuck behind a horse. Invitation Only and Bellshill jumping was very poor. As expected Might Bite did not finish well and Clan Des Obeaux does not come up the hill. Anibale Fly placed in 2 Gold Cups and a GN finished very strongly and will be one of the 3 favs with Rathvinden and Tiger Roll. The mare and Elegant Escape ran well to the straight. Final thought: The way Al Boum Photo was jumping ,I have a feeling he may have been very fortunate the 3rd last was not jumped. |
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annoyed got sucked in by this bellend horse.
knew that he wasn't anything much around Cheltenham. the supreme novices run was a big clue, a future gold cup winner doesn't finish closer last than first in that race no matter what self-appointed forum guru buddleia might say. should have read more into the Cheltenham form, al boum showed up well in that race last year. in future festivals will be looking at Cheltenham form much more because of this. should have backed al boum photo anyway, said a mullins horse would win just didn't follow my instinct. |
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A general observation. The majority of the GC horses had only run once or twice this season including the first 4 home. So don't expect much form to go on in 12 months time
It may well just be a coincidence but trainers will take it as an endorsement of the light preparation. I actually think that Native River might have been a bit closer with a prep run but it didn't seem to help Clan des Obeaux. |
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At LR
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Self appointed forum guru
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Whilst it is upsetting that LR does not agree with me re Bellshill I do take comfort in the fact that Ruby Walsh did.
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Bit of advice LR,go with your own judgement and not some self apolnted Guru such as myself.
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Well he would be in the poorhouse
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that's true, I would be in the poorhouse, but then so would over 90 percent of punters.
was only playing with you budd mate, you're one of the good guys on here. although tbf I think your enthusiasm re Bellshill rather lead me astray this time ![]() |
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ABP must be a really good winner of the race IMO, despite jumping less than fluent at any number of fences including a momentum stopper at the 2nd last he had still been at that point pretty much on the bridle and immediately picked up again after that, whether or not other horses had run their race or not or whether they are simply not that good, it takes a lot of doing to win the race the way he did.
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cheers LR,and sorry for my part in helping you lose money!! To be honest i did not think my opinion would make much difference.i hope your bet on him was not too heavy.
I genuinely thought his two Grade 1 victories over 3m plus his run in the Irish National gave him a real chance of running a big race,and the jockey choosing to ride him gave me even more confidence. As it happened the jockey chose wrong and i was wrong. Dont help when you clout a fence early!!! |
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As for ABP,he travelled so well and looked the winner some way out to me.
Hes improved massively from last year,which obviously does happen more with some than others. The money came for him on the day,so their was confidence behind him. Personally,he was one i thought could not win,BDM was another,and they were probably the best horses travelling during the race. I did take note of the money and had a saver on ABP,but only because of the money,and not my judgement. I have to say......i got the race completely wrong. |
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Don't think Walsh had a choice btwn 4 only 2 Townend was always on ABF and supreme probably wanted David on Kemboy
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Is that so? sorry i was not aware of that.
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Dirty scummy aftertiming from the self appointed forum guru
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i accept that.I did admit though that it was not my judgement.....more a case of following the money in a desperate attempt to salvage something from my antepost attempts!! |