Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
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I wrote on the antepost forum that defeat yesterday could be the catalyst for Angels Breath to be diverted to the Ballymore but the nature of his defeat means I've changed my mind!
Worth noting though that if they do split them it will be Angels Breath in the Ballymore - Al Dancer is not entered in that race. However, Henderson only has three Supreme entries left - and we know he is n't averse to running more than one. As ACStafford points out the collateral form from yesterday stands up with the Tolworth - also Scarlet Dragon was beaten pointless having only been beaten 9 lengths in the same race last year by a decent horse in Global Citizen. It's likely the first two yesterday are both potentially very good, Angels Breath had everything against him (track,ground,experience) and still went very close - I think he'll run in the Supreme with a big chance. |
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Yeh,thinking about it a bit more,as i like the Tolworth form then it makes sense to keep an open mind with AB.
Hes tied in with it,and its proving solid form,just hope its winning form for the Supreme!! He could well improve some as well for that race. |
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I really like the the chance of Fakir De Doodars, but what a knee action!!!!.... very like Taquin du Seuil's was. Any concerns here?
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Has anyone got any information on the record of second-season hurdlers in the Supreme?
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Paul Nicholls media day today, from the RP, here are his comments on his Supreme Runner.
Grand Sancy He's a real tough one and is now rated 152 which is high for a novice. He's had a great season. He's won his smaller races and he won the Kingwell at Wincanton the other day. He really toughed it out for a novice and looks a proper horse now. He is every bit as good as Al Ferof and Noland [Supreme winners] but is quite a big price and we think he is in with a great chance. He gallops on and he has done nothing but improve, he is versatile in terms of ground and we're looking forward to running him in the festival opener. |
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Ac Stratford
When was itchy feet beaten by vision des flos ? |
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Just had another dabble Itchy
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Greatwood day.
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Sorry, just realised my mistake. Elixir de Nutz rather.
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I thought that’s the horse you meant just wanted to clarify.
Good luck |
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Cheers ronnie
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Tizzard hasn’t got a jockey for EdN yet!
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Anyone got any info on the record of second season hurdlers in the Supreme?
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Was Getabird a 2nd season one? If so, he was made fav but the nature of Cheltenham proved his downfall.
A good performance by Rouge Vif who was beaten by Mister Fisher (MF) - another of Hendo; the fav Getaway Trump (GT) did not uphold the form of Al Dancer (AD) either. And, with 3 possibles from Hendo (with one owner having dual ownership) could Angels Breath (AB) be diverted to the Ballymore given he'd could with a trip? I read what Hendo said about AB nevertheless, I'm far from convinced this is his race or the preference of the dual-owner of AD and AB. I believe Mister Fisher has better credential than AB, and could be overlooked. |
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Don't think Hendo will fancy going to the Neptune with his own Champ lying in wait.
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Champ (C) is not cast-iron as the Irish have Battleoverdoyen and Klassical Dream. Also, it's no certainty Nico will choose AB over MF (here). And I know what I'd do if I was a part-owner of AB; AB can beat C, I think.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ho7796-au8U
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What do we reckon re Getaway Trump yesterday?
Form of Al Dancer and Champ the 2 novice favs takes a knock. My take on it is that hes not finished his race off for whatever reason,and would not be too worried if i had bets on these two. |
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I still don't know why Thomas Darby is 25/1,his form keeps getting boosted by all around him. Personally I make him a 10/1 shot so that double the price is value
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Agree Budd.
He (GTrump) is usually a smooth traveller and the season may just be catching up with him. I expected him to lose in his usual Harchibald way but that was too bad. If that form is true then ALL the British novices may as well stay away lol. |
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What would you have said if he'd won hard held?
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That's the only way he can win lol - he is a bridle monkey!!
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How good and reliable is the Betfair form? I understand Al Dancer won easily, but in beating a bottom weight handicapper and not shouldering top weight, personally, he's not one for me. He also ran rather freely, and will have to give Fakir D'oudaries a hefty 8lbs wfa; not keen on Angels Breath either given his last run - he definitely needs further. But the one I like and fear most is Mister Fisher who, I think, could give FD a fright on a formline with Rouge Vif, Thomas Darby, Windsor Avenue and Al Dancer.
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Very big difference between official ratings where there are any, RPR and the market.
Official ratings: 145 Elixir du Nutz, The Big Bite and Mister Fisher. 143 Grand Sancy, 142 Rouge Vif, 141 Al Dancer. RPR: 159 Al Dancer, Grand Sancy, 158 Angels Breath, 156 Elixir du Nutz, Fakir D'oudaires, 154 Felix Desjy. A bit farther down on 149 is Brandon Castle. An experienced flat handicapper used the be the sort to look for in this and Sausolito Boy was another ex Andrew Balding winner. Massive at 90 if intended runner. On those figures it should be 6/1 the field. |
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AD BHA152 EDN 153 GS 152 these are new ratings others the same
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the price of Angel's Breath now is ridiculous, nothing like the form in the book of some of the others. I think Elixir de Nutz is the one to be on, I keep topping up, my only worry is Fakir Doudaries
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Yeah, he looks too short now. He must show much more at home than Mister Fisher.
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not being funny the bloob but i really do think that fakir doudaires form is worthless, i believe they based the figure on the third horse home but basically he did no running at all that day, along with rest who had no form whatsoever going into the race, he should be far bigger in the market in my book, we will see i suppose but he isn't for me even with all the allowances
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reading tizzards views about EDN flying in a gallop,going to go from the front sounds a perfect ride for cobbden in his current form and tizzards obviously hoping he can get him to ride but says he no,s he,ll probably ride one for pumpkin,would obviously be a big price reduction if cobbden does eventually decide to ride him, tizzards bullishness has got me on board
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Cobden on Grand Sancy appeals to me at the price. The Wincanton win against experienced horses was very impressive and in most years, the Supreme winner is well inferior to the first 4 in the Champion Hurdle. Vision des flos has since won a good race. He was beaten 1/2 length by Elixir but if Cobden rides, Grand Sancy would be my choice.
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so how is itchy feet double the price?
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nineteen....agree totally with Itchy Feet....I'm on at decent odds. I am hoping to hear something positive about any improvement from a preview evening. I know that there is no issues with him, but as he has not raced since November my bet is in the hope he would have improved since then.
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also trainer seems to think he prefers decent ground so rain wont help
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The form looks interesting but Grand Sancy has improved by stones since the autumn and Elixir beat Itchy Feet. It is a very long break from his last run.
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beat it getting 5lbs.
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Just been tempted to have £2 at 96 on Brandon castle (purple) Unbeaten over hurdles, RPR 149 last time but won very easily. 100 rated flat handicapper and at 7yo not too old to learn new tricks. Could be Bryony Frost's ride.
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I'd completely forgotten about The Big Bite until I looked at the confirmations and saw Fehily already jocked up!
He was well beaten at Kempton but trying to give 3lbs to Rouge Vif and Thomas Darby and 8lbs to Mister Fisher. That trio are 4/4 since Kempton so the form looks decent. Trainer thinks the way the race panned out and the track did n't suit at Kempton - of course he would say that but it's certainly not impossible he'll be seen to better effect off a strong gallop and at level weights in the Supreme. Not backing him (yet!) but he's 40/1 and you could n't dismiss his chances, just an illustration of how tricky the race is. |
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Backed The Big Bite as mentioned below at 40/1 e/w NRNB when I saw N Fehily jocked up.was impressive in a Class 2 at Haydock then made a couple of mistakes at Kempton on Boxing Day.hopeful of a place maybe-at the price doesn’t cost a lot to find out!!think it’s an open race.
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Elexir De Nutz @7s most books,with a clear
round wins this. GL ALL |