Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
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Replies: 253
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Both the first 2 looked like AB horses to me today.
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Neither will be quick enough for a Ballymore on quicker ground, Rhinestone doesn't jump well enough either, I've backed him for the AB before today so might be biased, but it looked that way to me.
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I've backed Rhinestone in the AB too, there has been a bit of an underreaction to the performance today, people don't seem to realise that Rhinestone was giving weight to the winner and would have won off levels. 33/1 is still available although there would have to be some doubt about participation, although with Champ being Ballymore bound then JP may want to split them up
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Got Birchdale too, but he didn't look like he wanted to go further last week.
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JP has also got the relatively inexperienced Dickie Diver in the mix for the Albert Bartlett.
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Valdieu's very small bubble quickly burst. A pathetic performance. Weak in the market, never travelled fron the off and bungled virtually every hurdle. Not bred to be that good and isn't. Sensible to now give up and leave the race until the day.
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Yep, beat from the word go, betting suggested it too.
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fakir D'oudairies could be heading this way after the impressive win of his stablemate Sir Erec (same ownership) today.
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It isn't, unless it has been very recently purchased. Ran in the Twinlight colours.
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Sorry, I was thinking of another one of Joseph owned by JP. Nevertheless, his trainer does not know if Fakir D'oudairies has the engine of Sir Erec.
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Regardless of who owns it, Fakir Doudairies may well end up in the Supreme, nothing stands out after this weekend and the stable might want to split these two up, he's a powerful galloper and was very impressive last week.
Crucially he looks to want a bit of juice in the ground and he's most likely going to get that on day one rather than day 4, I thinks 20's on here is way too big even allowing for the Triumph being favoured right now. |
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Fakir D'oudairies (FD) is 20 here with Match****(awful website). Not only does he get an 8lb wfa allowance, he's the highest rated too; a small nibble from me at that price.
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Good luck but why if you are second favourite (with course and distance form) for the Triumph would you not take that route? The ground he won on wasn't that slow and the first day although given as good to soft is quite often towards the good side.
Some of us have already backed three losers in the race. If you could get 14/1 NRNB it would probably be worth a dart. |
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Fakir d'Ouderies -- like many here, I've had a small interest at 20/1 but now I think we may have done our money because while there are a lot of pundits saying he should go for the Supreme, often based on the false premise that JP owns Fakir as well as Sir Erec, there is nothing from connections.
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Blue on oddschecker for Fakir today in the Supreme market.
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Ladbrokes would not let me include Thomas Darby in my retirement ante-post yankee today so I don't know what that is all about.
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I think it would make sense if FD is pitched here as he's an excellent chance of winning this race given his 8lb wfa allowance against his elders. If confirmed I think he'd be challenging for favouritism with Angels Breath who's 11/2 after one race jumping just 4 hurdles (4 omitted) at Ascot due to atrocious ground.
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Nice call on the 20's for Fakir lads. I think there is a big chance he goes here as he's much more experienced over the obstacles then Sir Erec. Also can't see JOB running both in the Triumph.
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Fakir is blue across Oddschecker atm.
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as duffy said earlier
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Blake wouldn't have put you off on the ATR festival chat this afternoon either, he said that the horse had had plenty of experience in France, jumped a fence already which would stand him in good stead for this race and he noted that a couple of 4 year olds that had tried it previously and gone into the race with a live chance were Binocular (2nd) and Hors La Loi (1st), so they have looked into it for sure.
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Oh, and the 8lbs would come in handy too.
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Duffy "crucially he looks to want a bit of juice in the ground and hes most likely to get that on day 1 rather than day 4"
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Is that a long term weather warning duffy ?
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I can't see why Fakir wouldn't take his chance in the supreme. Why have 1st & 2nd in the Triumph when you could have 1st in both potentially as Sir Erec is a worthy Fav
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irishone
 , you know what I mean though, the usual way of things( last year aside), dry week with them really making an effort to get a bit of juice in the ground for day 1. |
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So Irishone is your anti post bets based on Good ground or not ?
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My bigger bets arent based upon ground at all. Wouldnt back anything ground dependent unless i was told different by connections.
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Wheres your evidence that you get more juice inthe ground day 1 duffy ?
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Angels run tomorrow, Emitom in race
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Nico is onboard Angels Breath tomorrow at Huntington, and he needs to win otherwise Fakir Doudairies will usurp him for favouritism, I think. As yet no betting.
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Surely Elixir De Nutz is v.good Grade 1 form in the bag. Tolworth G1 winners the Supreme with regularity and he beat an Henderson hot-pot on that day. He's also won twice at Cheltenham (Supreme C&D) - am I missing something?
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Fakir was bought by JP so now an even bigger chance he goes here. Cut to 7/1 here. Nice AP lads.
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Fakir D'Oudairies' action suggests he'd prefer a bit of cut (something JJ Slevin confirmed after the race). Given the clerk's remit to provide Day 1 going with the word "Soft" in it, it probably makes sense to target him towards Tuesday's Supreme rather than Friday's Triumph.
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Also, Fakir has a Supreme entry whereas Sir Erec doesn't.
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irish
My evidence (and I could only be bothered to go back 10 years) is that it's softer on day 1 than it is on day 4 on more occasions than vice versa, it's usually drying up by then but on day 1 claisse is always trying to maintain a little bit of cut which is diminished through the week, the official going descriptions are for the most part softer at the start than at the end. Anyway, it looks more and more likely that Fakir is going to run in the Supreme. |
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I would argue that this year out of all years , given the welfare hue and cry and the Leopardstown experience its even more likely to be softer than in past years on day 1 (ignoring the weather ).
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Looking increasingly likely now FD would run here after JP's purchase, all being well. Of course, there is still the option of The Ballymore/Neptune but doubt it personally; 8/1 best now, but I'd not be surprised if he's fav tomorrow should Angels Breath not win convincingly 2pm tomorrow at Huntingdon.
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Thomas Darby for me atm Supreme still some 20s about looms appealing
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looks
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