Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
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Replies: 253
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Will it weave in between b4 hitting the front
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Fakir D'oudairies is rated superior to any entrant here including Angels Breath - 7/1 still available. Similarly, Sir Erec in The Triumph, and he's 6/4, and only 2lbs superior to FD, according to Blake (probably Irish rating).
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That was very impressive yesterday, goes straight in to the charts at number 1
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Al Dancer clearly has plenty of ability but isn't the best of jumpers and I worry about the jock on that score, particularly in a much more competitive race. He managed to get away with one at the fourth last yesterday.
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Al dancer was impressive (visually), but to jump the head of the betting queue, I'm mot fully convinced. He'd done more than Angels Breath, what about Fakir D'oudaries? Nevertheless gonna be a big player, I'd imagine.
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AHH, we've had the annual eye popping Betfair hurdle winner that gets everyone excited for the Supreme then have we, what's their winning record in the Supreme again?
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I like the Tolworth form,and franked nicely yesterday.
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Getaway Trump 4th puts a line on Champ - probably making Al Dancer 3lb his superior if we were being strict - although Getaway Trump (it can be argued) is a bridle monkey and Champ was finding plenty..... pffft ....The question begging to be asked is are the UK novice hurdlers just crap - I keep reflecting on the shock of Fakir Doudairies shooting down the flower of the British youth. :'-(
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I can't believe the over-reaction to Al Dancer and under-reaction to Grand Sancy yesterday. Al Dancer was effectively chucked-in off his mark, and although he won well I wouldn't get carried away. To put Grand Sancy's performance into context:
Sceau Royal rated 154, giving 2lb and 3/4 of a length would approximate Grand Sancy to 156/157 Vision des Flos rated 150 off levels and 1 1/4 length would approximate to 151/152 Unison rated 146 giving 2lb and 5 lengths would equate to 153 take the mid-point and that puts Grand Sancy at around the 153 mark, can't be far off Supreme Novice winning level |
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I don't think there was much strength in depth to the Betfair but I would take Al Dancer over Grand Sancy by a fair margin.
Grand Sancy has done well to win a small field conditions race but you could easily argue about the solidity, or otherwise of that form. A Supreme would be an entirely different challenge. He was pulled up at last year's Festival and I don't think it is coincidence that the majority of his form is on flat tracks. I don't think the Tolworth was much of a race. The third has been turned over since and the favourite on the day was abysmal. As for UK v Irish not sure the Irish Grade 1 form is up to much either. |
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The Irish have an ace in the pack ie Fakir D'oudaries who'll be receiving 8lbs from his elders.
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Think the front two in the Tolworth are going to be pretty good horses to be honest,and probably wont be much between them again at Cheltenham.
I like they way they got up that hill at Sandown in soft ground,and that experience wont do them any harm in a Supreme. Slightly prefer EDN and hes got nice Cheltenham form on decent ground as well. I can see them being similar to last years Tolworth first two, but weather they can actually finish in the Supreme as they did?,well don't know that of course,but I suspect they well be thereabouts at the finish. The ratings have Al Dancer and Grand Sancy pretty close to each other,and Grand Sancy and EDN are at bigger prices than Al Dancer and imo good value for those prices. I have backed EDN and will add GS. Then hope I am right!!!  |
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Angels Breath is the one I'm on, along with Klassical Dream. I know Angels Breath has only jumped 4 hurdles, and the form doesn't stand up to a whole lot of scrutiny but I really haven't seen a whole lot else on either side of the sea that's made my jaw drop open. The way this one quickened up away from Seddon and Danny Kirwan was very impressive, and while I'd have liked him to have had another couple of runs, the fact that he hasn't gives the price some juice, and its not like the horse has had a setback, its just been a victim of circumstance. Entered into the 2m novice hurdle at Huntingdon on Thursday against a couple of decent looking rivals, could go back to the top of the market with a win. The thing I like most about this horse was that it went straight into a G2 on its rules debut and won it well, and shortened beforehand. That says to me that Henderson knows he has a serious animal on his hands here. It looked professional and uncomplicated, and a decent jumper (obviously that hasn't been fully tested). Given a reasonable level of improvement from 1st to 3rd start (assuming all goes ok on thursday and it gets there in one piece) this could be the one they all have to beat.
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Is he a certain runner being in the same ownership? I know Henderson has Champ for the longer race but that's JP.
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buddelia I agree with you regarding Elixir de Nutz. I haven't actually backed Grand Sancy for the Supreme, it's Elixir that I'm on
given the course form, and the fact that he beat Grand Sancy when the stable were totally out of form has got to be a big plus. At a similar price at present the value lies with Elixir de Nutz another interesting contender could be Itchy Feet, entered at Kempton on Saturday. He has the beating of both Grand Sancy and Elixir de Nutz (allowing for weight) based on early season meetings |
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Yep, spotted that mate,cheers.
33/1 nrnb,too big compared with EDN and GS. Going to Kempton Saturday,be good to see how he looks and gets on. |
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Itchy Feet 40/1
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Not now though, best price 33 that i can see.
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DD - my money was down before Al Dancer came into the picture, but to me the fact they're running AB over 2m at Huntingdon, and in fact all his entries, even the ones he hasn't taken up have been 1m 7f or 2m, which to me says Supreme is still the target - or at least they aren't looking to step up in trip.
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Haha - although having said that he is entered for races over 2m 2.5f and 2m 3f on Friday if he doesn't take up the Huntingdon entry
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Connections of AB and Al Dancer (AD) might need more than 2 bullets to battle against FD probably the horse with the best novice hurdle form.
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Surely after today's performance by Angels Breath (AB) despite giving 5lbs to the winner Southfield Stone (beaten by Elixir De Nutz) and having his 1st proper race he cannot be considered a serious contender for this. I think he was tapped-for-toe 2 out - he made up good ground after the last - but the winner won despite a big wayward at the finish.
AB and Al Dancer are in the same ownership, the former re-routed to the Ballymore perhaps. |
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Maybe rerouted to Maralin
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Another boost for the Tolworth form.
Not sure what to make of Angels to be honest. Maybe just simply not good enough. Aintree? |
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Elixir de Nutz beat Southfield Stone 3 3/4 off levels. Angels Breath was beaten 3/4 length giving 5lbs. Strictly speaking, there's not much between them.
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True,but Southfield clouted the last and lost ground on the run in yesterday.
I just dont think they will throw both AB and AD at the supreme,and maybe save AB for Aintree? |
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Yeah, that's a possibility. Al Dancer is clearly the owner's best hope for the Supreme now. I think he looks short though; I'm not convinced that Betfair Hurdle was much good.
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Wouldn't be writing AB off yet watching that back.
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AB will want further imo, Itchy Feet a good shout and had a dabble, only entered in this race, bit surprised not run since last year
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Nicholls post race comments re respective merits of Grand Sancy and Southfield Stone were interesting.
Unusually I think he might have missed a trick - Southfield Stone not entered in the Supreme and will surely now end up with a big weight for both the Imperial Cup and the County Hurdle. There was n't that much between them in the Tolworth and Cobden rode Southfield Stone - Grand Sancy has run in 11 hurdle races but Southfield Stone only 5 despite being a year older so surely still scope for further improvement. All Southfield Stone's best form is on Good or better so he probably did n't appreciate the surface in the Tolworth - appreciate it's traditionally on the soft side on Day One of the Festival but it surely would have been worth entering Southfield Stone and chancing him if it's Good to Soft. |
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My initial reaction after the Dovecote was that Elixir De Nutz was to be backed for the Supreme, but, after watching back, I'm with Marychain: that wasn't a bad a run from Angel's Breath. He tugged really hard early on. If they could get him to settle he could be dangerous. He did seem to get left behind just after the bend, but I wonder if that was Cobden timing it just right and De Boinville a little slow to react. I'm not sure where to go with this race at the moment. The front two in the market look far too short to me. Itchy Feet is interesting at the price. I remember backing him the time he was beaten by Vision Des Flos, but there's no time to get another run in to him now. Anyone know why he hasn't run since?
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Hendo said AB took a blow (I think he meant a breather) at the wrong moment (could be just after the bend) thus seemed left behind. And I do not think that was Supreme winning form despite giving 5lbs to the winner and breaking the track record; Fakir D'oudaries is receiving 8lbs from his elders.
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quite a nice run from angel breath i'd say considering his inexperience, the speed favouring track didn't really suit but they got the run into him, which was needed..quite an attractive price tbf with improvement very likely and race run in quite a good time. certainly of interest at 12/1 imo im going to have a few sheckles at that price
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Will they run them both in the same race though?
If one moves up it will surely have to be AB, because despite his keeness he looked to get a little caught out initially before staying on nicely again at the end bringing the longer trip into the argument. The most important factor though could be that AD could not possibly go up in trip as the pace they'd go early doors in the Neptune would have him positively blowing his head off. |
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on reflection not a bad run from angels breath will have learned a lot from that and closing well at the finish, cheltenham should suit better and he should improve a fair hendo seemed to hold him in high regard prior to kempton and he knows what is required nrnb is the way to go .
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harry who is he 12s with ? having trouble with oddschecker on my p.c thanks
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coral and unibet but not nrnb i'm afraid
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I think the owners of AB and AD will split them. What would be gained by running them in the same race when clearly AB would be done-for-toe over 2m? JP and Joseph will undoubtedly split SE and FD with SE heading for The Triumph and FD The Supreme.
I'd fancy AB (8/1 with 365 nrnb) in the Ballymore as I believe he'd have a better chance against Champ than in The Supreme. I'm not sure about the form of Battleoverdoyen either even though he looked good in his latest win. |
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Ronnie Bartlett doesn’t own a share in AD 123
Forty |
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harry c
corals go nrnb bet from Tuesday all races expect to see more cuts than Henry Coopers cornerman. regards Ronnie. |