Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2019
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Replies: 253
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His two mile win was in a bumper.
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Sorry 'diff..', must learn to pay more attention to title of race next time. Could CoF be doing the donkey work for Felix Desjy on sunday then? Whatever, I cannot fancy Buildmeupbuttercup.
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It seems you got it right first time. Commander Of Fleet pulled. A very peculiar ante-post market and yet again bookmakers get a result before the race even starts.
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Bookies have tended to skinny price of alleged fancy (and probable) non-runners deliberately to hoodwink naive punters, and they have done it again despite your insistence Elliot stating CoF would be step-up in trip; CoF is down for the Pharma Nov Hurdle on 3rd Feb.
The betting for Moscow Flyer on sunday: Harrie 2/1 (Ruby); Swordsman 11/4 (Kennedy); Buildmeupbuttercup 7/2 (Townend); Jetez 11/2 (Power); Feli Desjy 6/1 (Russell) |
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The race you mention for Commander Of Fleet is over the minimum but he is also entered in the 2m6f that Tower Bridge won last year. Seemingly, it is very difficult to find a 2m4f race. You would think they could consider something over here if options are so limited that they have to run him over the 'wrong' trip again.
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Think CoF will end up in the Martin Pipe myself.
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Why?
Clearly he was considered their best or close to their best novice at the start of the season. He has been beaten over the wrong trip on only his second hurdle run. Those in front have franked the form. Why would they think he suddenly a handicapper? |
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Just my view dd. Could well be wrong.
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They might not think he's a handicapper, but they might still take the view that they may as well take advantage of a decent mark if they can get one with him, we automatically look and punt the obvious novice races for horses through the season, then when the handicaps arrive and if a horse has put in a run that holds down a potential mark they end up in one of those races and we've done our dough.
The appeal of a decent mark is hard to ignore and the attitude of a winner at the festival regardless is still a winner, especially with novices, they can still go on to fulfill their potential in open company in time if they're good enough. |
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Exactly my thinking Duffy.
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It’s also a race Gordon likes to win for obvious reasons. CoF definitely doesn’t strike me as a Supreme horse and Battleoverdoyen will likely be fav for the Ballymore.
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Also worth noting Gigg have won it 4 times in the last 8 years. Don Poli and Sir des Champs we’re good ones. Think they target it with a highly rated novice who ends up with a decent mark and CoF could easily fit into that category.
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JB posted a really good article regarding Giggi and the Martin Pipe hurdle last year, rinse repeat....
http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30993815/martin-pipe-conditional-jockeys-hcap#flvWelcomeHeader |
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Quick grabin out of the festival
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Disappointing but not entirely surprising - he was conspicuous by his absence from some big-race entries.
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Backed angels breath.
IBased on the supreme market I can’t understand why he is isn’t fave for the haydock trial, and mister fisher is ? Likely non runner at haydock ? |
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Mister fisher was around 7/1 when the betting opened it seems a lot of punters guessed Nicky might not have been telling the whole truth when indicating angels breath would be running at haydock.
They may be right they may be wrong |
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The money always tells the truth,Hendo at his work again. I can remember last year him blatantly telling lies on Racing UK about an injured horse
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Are you sure quevega I thought Nicky was a good egg
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Apparently he knew nothing about the drift on Betfair then low and behold the horse is out
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It’s quite amazing how punters can guess about one of nickys before the poor man realises himself.
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Perhaps he's asleep. Teofilo anyone?
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The betting market rarely gets it wrong eg Hendo and Mullins, and it looks it is happening again on saturday with Hendo regards Mister Fisher and Angels Breath (the original even money fav) - their market position have swapped. Money speak louder than words!
I've backed Angels Breath for this nevertheless more in hope than confidence; his win at Ascot over 4 hurdles (I believe) and the withdrawal of probable fav Thomas Darby because of soft going is a concern as to the depth of that race. Mister Fisher could jostle for fav if beating Thomas Darby easily (again) on saturday. |
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Nicky is such a liar, him and Mullins are as bad as each other, just assume whatever they say the opposite is the truth
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Thomas Darby is 9/2 against Mister Fisher (evens), and is 8lb better off too for 2.5 lengths. Good value if running, surely.
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it's 8lb better off for 5 lengths, but still that's about 3lb in hand (1lb per length is a good approximation over 2 miles)
the only worry would be Thomas Darby not running, I agree it would look a good bet, but I don't think it will run (entered at Taunton on Saturday with Aiden Coleman booked to ride) |
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I'd have thought the Betfair then Supreme would be ideal for Thomas Darby
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The horse pulls for miles
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'the bloob', I must try and read the form properly. It's 8lbs for 5 lengths indeed. I think Thomas Darby might not run despite his price has contracted with 3 bookies eg Commander Of Fleet last sunday; 9/2 into 2/1 for Elliot, and he scratched him.
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I'd not partaken in Irish Racing since the farcical race involving Noble Emperor; I'd also not backed Mullins' charges antepost running in Ireland as the disappointments tended to outweigh the rewards especially when he'd more than one fancied runner in big races eg Melon in the Irish Champion Hurdle last season, and Yorkhill - someone always seemed to know which one to back and lay.
I'd been laying Mullins' Cheltenham antepost shorties since the defeat of Min; post Vautour and Douvan Mullins had missed the bullseye more often than I care to remember. And I've not backed any of his this season for the Festival. |
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You are 100% right impossible,I know it's hard getting one anti post but trying to get a Mullins or Hendo horse right is deadly
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You have to bear in mind the sheer number of people that work in these big outfits. It would be a miracle if they didn't leak.
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Having backed two losers for this - Eldorado Allen (unlucky) and Rathhill (not good enough) - have tried to salvage things with Valdieu.
This market has still to evolve and I think whoever takes the novice at the Dublin Festival will be close to favourite. If it is Valdieu he goes from 33/1 to single figures. Even a decent run will probably see a cut. He is a strange one in that it took him seven bumpers to win one but he bolted up in that race and it was a similar story on hurdling debut. Hopefully, he is a late developer on a roll. I find it hard to believe he isn't better than the 121 that the Racing Post have given him. Meade/Flanagan not the greatest Cheltenham records but at the moment that is factored into the price. I know Vision D'Honneur looks the part and has a big reputation but on racecourse evidence he shouldn't be so much shorter than Valdieu. Fingers crossed a week on that I haven't got the hat trick up. |
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Is it likely annamix will appear again before Cheltenham? Is Cheltenham still on the radar? Hard to believe after all that hype that his debut over hurdles is the best he had in the locker
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Valdieu for me too, looked potentially a bit special last time out I thought, it's a wide open year and Meade didn't hide his regard for him after the race speaking in terms of thinking he's a grade 1 horse.
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Should have thought about this first but I think Valdieu is definitely a good ground horse. Lot of unsettled weather around this week and that might wreck his chances next weekend. Gigginstown don't often pull them out on account of the ground. Whatever happens he will want the ground on the good side of good to soft for the opening day of the Festival.
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Had a look through the market this morning and was really taken watching the replay of Thomas Darbys 1st run of the season, readily accounting for Elixir De Nutz over the Supreme course and distance run in a very good time, he fairly charged up the hill, at around 20/1, you could do a lot worse in an open race.
His two subsequent defeats read week enough on tracks that might not have suited and being unable to get settled either time. Don't know about anyone else but I'm usually against novice hurdlers running in hot handicaps like the Schweppes / Tote Gold Trophy before the Festival. It's often too much too soon for them and hardly an ideal prep for a competitive race like the Supreme, for that reason I hope this fellow doesn't run. |
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Entries today 29/1 for the novice hurdles. Time to tear up those early ante-post slips?
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Never really thought there was any prospect of Commander Of Fleet turning up in the Martin Pipe. You don't intentionally aim a Grade 1 horse at that race. Step up in trip did the trick but because they couldn't find a 2m4f race he will probably end up in the Albert Bartlett even though today was a better performance than anything Battleoverdoyen has so far produced. It is very bad luck on those who backed him for the Ballymore - he was the original favourite.
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