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Cheltenham Festival

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Mystic Wind
08 Nov 18 11:07
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Date Joined: 21 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 412 | Blogger: Mystic Wind's blog
The hype horse at the moment is Annamix, but a single-figure price about a horse who hasn't run for over 2 years and hasn't won a race yet makes very little appeal.

That said, Willie Mullins is one of the more obvious places to start when trying to find the winner.

He has his usual raft of last season bumpers to throw into the hurdling mix. At the end of last season I thought that Tornado Flyer was the most likely of those to become a 'Supreme horse' but I note that he's not among the trainer's 16 (yes, 16) entries for the Royal Bond. Perhaps he needs more time, perhaps he needs further, who knows?

One Mullins horse who does hold a Royal Bond entry is Quick Grabim, and I was pretty impressed with his recent win in the Joe Mac where he beat a host of in-form horses. The form of that race is holding up well with both the 4th & 5th winning next time out (the former a decent contest at Cheltenham).

Quick Grabim is due to run in the For Auction this weekend, where it looks as though he'll come up against Gordon Elliott's Felix Desjy who is currently the general second favourite for the Supreme. Elliot has won the last 2 runnings of the For Auction and the well-regarded Felix Desjy will be getting 7 lbs from the penalised Quick Grabim. If Quick Grabim wins or goes close on Sunday then I think he'll have to be considered a serious Supreme contender. I think he will and despite his age being a bit of a trend-buster I've had an early dip of the toe.

0.4pt Quick Grabim @ 25/1

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Replies: 253
By:
Quevega06
When: 08 Nov 18 19:03
Personally I thi k Felix will hammer Quick Grabim getting 7lbs. Felix if settling over hurdles will be a machine this yr,pulled for a country mile in the bumper but just ran out of steam
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 11 Nov 18 12:17
Poor ride from Ruby there imo, sitting out the back in a slowly-run race. You can't afford any mistakes if you're trying that tactic but Quick Grabim flattened the 2nd last just as he was quickening up and that put paid to his chances.

Felix Desjy looks like one to treat with caution after that run.
By:
Quevega06
When: 11 Nov 18 14:44
I thought that was bad from Ruby as well,maybe he's still trying to find his feet with the return as it looked like a badly timed run
By:
sageform
When: 11 Nov 18 14:59
Eldorado Allen one of the best novices in England so far but early days.
By:
Hanx
When: 13 Nov 18 15:38
Thought Epatante looked a bit special at Kempton yesterday

Wonder where she is in Hnerson's pecking order for the Supreme after that rout?
By:
irishone
When: 15 Nov 18 17:21
Only two things to worry about
The going and the willie\gordon harse
They wont fail to an english handicapper
Two years in a row
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 02 Dec 18 13:43
Quick Grabim is back in the game after that.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Dec 18 15:05
Looks like the bubble has burst for Annamix who was beaten at Limerick into 2nd spot. Angels Breath (Hendo) has been promoted to 7/1 fav as a result.
By:
differentdrum
When: 28 Dec 18 17:11
I would have thought the same had the horse won twenty lengths but I can't see the point of backing a horse purely on a statistical basis. It was guesswork as to the actual merit of the horse. If you had a top class animal why would start off with a slog round Limerick?
By:
irishone
When: 29 Dec 18 09:30
Vast majority of class animals start with a slog around a point to point over three miles , in ireland its usually a boggy slog , thats exactly where you find out if they have any class.
By:
The Dragon
When: 31 Dec 18 10:31
quick Grabim now 14/1 so your 25/1 shout is looking good

Had a go at Angels Breath at 7/1
By:
differentdrum
When: 02 Jan 19 15:29
Having got the course and distance win I would have thought Eldorado Allen would have been a certainty to at least get a Tolworth entry.

He hasn't so my guess is all is not well and Tizzard just hasn't bothered to tell anyone.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 02 Jan 19 16:22
Came out he’d had a setback a few weeks ago dd. Said he wasn’t out of the Festival but wasn’t a defe8nite to be ready in time.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 02 Jan 19 16:41
Eldorado Allen is reported to be on the road to recovery after undergoing surgery for a injury sustained in a dramatic incident at Aintree last month.

The Colin Tizzard-trained gelding ran loose after unseating his rider when badly hampered at the first flight by The Grand Visir in a novice hurdle over two miles and one furlong.

Eldorado Allen was sent off odds-on favourite for that race following a winning debut at Sandown in November, having moved from France.

"He bolted up at Sandown. We took him up to Aintree and a horse cut across him and brought him down. Then he ran round the racecourse," said Terry Warner, who co-owns the gelding with John Romans, owner of Welsh National hero Elegant Escape.

"He might come back at the end of the season. We don't know yet. He will be all right. He chipped a bone just above the knee. There were little bits of bone. We had it X-rayed and he was operated on. We saw him afterwards and he's fine.

"He's got to have box rest for eight weeks and then he'll need eight to 12 weeks to get him fit. We'll be lucky if he runs again this season, but long term I don't think it's done him any damage. The Sandown form has worked out well because several in the race have come out and won since."

Actually just seen this update!
By:
differentdrum
When: 03 Jan 19 10:38
Thanks, as suspected. He had been lukewarm in the market. They are basically saying he is out for season.

It was bad enough what happened at Aintree but to compound things by getting injured is massively unfortunate, for both horse and punters.

The Supreme has always been a nightmare race for me.

At least we can stop anyone else wasting their money.
By:
differentdrum
When: 03 Jan 19 12:29
Despite it being 'old news' I see that bulletin was only released yesterday. Presumably, it was only a case of someone putting two and two together as I did otherwise Tizzard would have sat on it for even longer. It is the most annoying part of ante-post betting that some trainers will give nothing unless asked.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jan 19 19:26
Still a damn side better than Mr Mullins regarding Killutagh Vic who slid on his belly after pitching at the last fence one January; he was still hinting Cheltenham Festival despite someone close to his stable phoned Chapman to say he might not race again let alone making the Festival. The horse was out for nearly 2 years months after Walsh's winning at all cost mentality.
By:
Ramruma
When: 06 Jan 19 04:07
Elixir De Nutz won the Tolworth to follow up his two wins at Cheltenham including the Supreme Trial and yet that is three successive 5-runner races. Whether he can make all at the Festival is less clear, but he's flopped when held up.
By:
duffy
When: 07 Jan 19 14:44
I was quite impressed with VALDIEU yesterday, quite a bit novicey at times but looked very classy I thought, Meade holds high hopes for him, speaking in terms of him being a grade 1 horse and is targeting the Dublin festival next.

He's only priced up with Hills so far for the Supreme, but with that race looking quite up in the air, the 33's they were offering was good enough for me.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Jan 19 15:08
You could do worse. I already have done. It has taken the horse quite a few sighters but he has been good the last twice. Visually I thought he was more impressive than the Graded winner. I think a quicker surface would also be a plus. That said I wouldn't have too much faith in a Flanagan/Meade combination come March. Has Flanagan had a Cheltenham winner?
By:
Govan Spoonful
When: 07 Jan 19 16:42
A question: are horses which have run on the flat allowed to run in this race? I ask because Brandon Castle, a winner of five races in one season for Archie Watson before transferring to Noel King and easily winning his first two outings over hurdles, isn't included in any market for the race.
By:
Outlaw1
When: 07 Jan 19 17:02
Govan- Yes of course only rules state a horse needs to be a novice and 4yo or older , prob not priced up because noone has asked, fire off a request at sky/hills/365 etc someone will give you  price for him.
By:
Govan Spoonful
When: 07 Jan 19 17:12
Thanks for confirmation, Outlaw. Thought that was the case but surprised not to see the horse anywhere on the evidence of his form.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Jan 19 11:30
Can anybody understand why Itchy Feet is 40/1 and Elixir de Nutz is 12/1? Not only when you consider the time when they met, but also the formlines with Grand Sancy. Appears to be absolutely nothing between them to my eyes!

Olly Murphy has confirmed the Supreme Trial at Muss followed by the Supreme. 40/1 looks a brilliant price to me.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 08 Jan 19 12:39
If Itchy Feet even gets placed in the Supreme I will never post on here again, and unliket that ****  I123 I will be a man of my word.

Keep you fingers crossed lads.Laugh
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Jan 19 13:16
Presumably you think Elixir de Nutz has no chance of placing either then?
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Jan 19 13:17
I'd say the Liverpool thread will now be cheering this horse on come March.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Jan 19 13:50
Even if you take Seddon as your yardstick. Now obviously Angels Breath beat him easier than Itchy Feet did... but IF was giving the horse 5lb and beat him 3 length. Angels Breath beat him 8l. Now I accept that was on debut and he will likely have more improvement but AB is 6/1 fav. The formlines all tie in fairly well between EdN, IF and AB.

I think IF should be 20/1 max... and even that would be reasonably generous.

I'll await your reasoning as to why the horse cant place based on the formbook uncle....
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 08 Jan 19 14:25
Extrapolating that logic, what price should Thomas Darby be then? He beat EDN on his hurdling debut by over 3 lengths.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Jan 19 14:58
Yeah Im on TD as well (and for the Ballymore) but with the cash out option with Bet365. He was my main fancy until his last run. Looked a bit quirky and wasnt mad on his head carriage tbh.

But they are looking at stepping him in trip now I think, and you'd have to think Olly Murphy will split these two up wouldnt you?

At the end of the day is 40/1 so has to be taken in that context, just interested to hear why uncle thinks he has absolutely no chance when his form ties in with the fav and second fav
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 08 Jan 19 15:20
I backed TD @ 25/1 to win any race after his debut. He still has a chance in an open Supreme as a faster pace will suit.

Stepping up in trip might bring improvement, although I wouldn't fancy his chances of beating Battleoverdoyen personally. He's on a mark of 140 presently, perhaps a tilt at one of the handicaps might be an option.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 08 Jan 19 15:23
I agree MW and covered him for both just because I thought the trainer might split them up. I think TD would have more chance in a fast run Supreme of the two races.
By:
Quevega06
When: 08 Jan 19 16:53
I like the look of TD myself and would be keen 2 bet him in the Supreme before running in the Greatwood. In my opinion Darby is still to green for heading over further
By:
Quevega06
When: 08 Jan 19 16:53
I think a fast run 2mile will really suit him
By:
differentdrum
When: 08 Jan 19 19:37
Elliott has entered Commander Of Fleet back over two miles on Sunday. It strikes that he just throws darts at races rather than having some sort of future plan. I thought from the comments after his last race that even he had accepted that he had made an obvious mistake in running the horse over the minimum trip. It seems not. Yes, they might have the Ballymore second favourite but this would surely be square peg in a round hole stuff.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Jan 19 20:09
Commander Of Fleet "could" run but I do not think he'll - he's 6/1 with Sly and 4/1 (here); another one of Elliot's ie Felix Desjy is only 11/4 (here) but 7/1 with Sly (too big I think) - he would be the one for Elliot; Vision Dhonneur could be Elliot's 2nd runner.

The fav Buildmeupbuttercup is 4/1 with Sly but only 5/2 (here). The gulf in opinions between traders of these two betting entities is humongous.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Jan 19 08:36
I hope you are right but Elliott is running out of time in getting some two and a half mile experience into Commander Of Fleet. Ideally you wouldn't want to throw him into a decent Grade 1 at that trip. Sunday's race would have been ideal.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Jan 19 17:03
Market now has Commander Of Fleet favourite so it appears the Elliott dart throwing just continues. Perhaps they have fitted a new engine since he looked woefully outpaced over two miles.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jan 19 18:06
The market has changed markedly. Maybe CoF had an-off day as he did win over 2m. The one I like is Felix Desjy his stablemate who was 'evens' fav against Aramon and Quick Grabim but had an eventful journey that day.
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