Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 358 comments are related to the topic:
*** Arkle Chase ***
*** Arkle Chase ***
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 358
|
By:
Kalashnikov @ 10/1 looks the bet to me.
Easy to excuse his last two runs imo. |
|
By:
hardline 2nd fav on hear !
|
|
By:
good news !
|
|
By:
HEARD WORSE
|
|
By:
think this ornua has been completely underestimated- hardly anyone has put him up. all the tipsters raving about glen forsa, hardline etc. Ornua got beat by dynamite dollars at sandown, but he beat lalor easily that day and that one is more than twice the price of the debromhead horse. conditions will also be similar tomorrow with same sort of ground. And yet that was the excuse being put up for Lalor being beat- in fact I recall his trainer afterwards raving about how we will see a different horse in spring ground.
think you will need experience, and toughness tomorrow as will be a difficult test for these novices in the wet and windy conditions. ornua the value for me. |
|
By:
should have said "more than half the price"
 |
|
By:
Totally agree Lewisham.
Jumped em ragged in the Henry 8th and set off like a cat on a hot tin roof, with some spectacular leaps. Only just getting caught up the run in Ran a time nearly 4 seconds quicker than Altior in the Tingle Creek an hour later. Crazy price @ 16s should be 1/2 that. Only down side it had been campaigned early season as clearly thought as a good ground horse but Sandown was soft As a back to lay in running in Does it come any better than this??? |
|
By:
yes Geoff although if it tries to lead a few might take it on in this
not sure if that would be a good thing |
|
By:
The race looks to have plenty who'll want to get on with it,this race could fall to bits late on as horses who have cut each others throats early doors fall away, it looks tailor made for something to sit and come from behind, Glen Forsa for me to do just that, he doesn't need to lead and although would have a question to answer with regards to having sufficient speed in a top notch Arkle, that won't be such an issue in this renewal.
There will be a battle up front, he will be able to travel in behind as he is a smooth traveller with a decent cruising speed, his jumping has been impeccable and when the pace collapses his stamina will come to the fore.IMO. |
|
By:
best of luck with glen forsa , i couldnt have him . i think hes been massively flattered by kalshnikov a horse whom has every right to be at the top of the betting but for whatever reason seems gone . for me hardline looks to be the one
|
|
By:
would the 7 in front of ornua in the betting all finshed in front of him if they ran in the Henry 8th and hed ended up in 9 th with all others running in excess of 4 seconds quicker.
Extermely unlikely imo. If all the field had ran against Glen Forsa @Sandown would Glen Forsa still have won?? Unlikely imo. But that is what the market is suggesting. As Gpz suggested based on a flaky line thro Kalashnikov. They reckon Glen Forsa put up a good time @ Sandown but still 2 seconds slower than Henry 8th time. Different days i know But 1 is 16s tother is 5s. |
|
By:
i backed ornua at sandown and thought he had it won ,just got worn down by a decent horse, may have went off too fast ,have hardline and glen forsa at double figga prices but a bit doubtfull that forsa will have the speed and ornua at 16s looks a decent call
|
|
By:
Too difficult for me as I can't split Knocknanuss , Hardline and Glen Forsa . I do agree that the Glen Forsa form is flakey .
|
|
By:
Cannot recall ever not thinking one of the first 5 in the betting will win,in an Arkle!!
Backed Paloma Blue ages ago and will add Ornua and possibly the Moore horse, whose a bit of a nutter but talented. |
|
By:
If the rain stays away until post race the chances of Lalor will increase many folds, I believe.
|
|
By:
think Hardline has huge chance and will start favourite
race looks set up him there is loads of pace, he has won over further and on the soft |
|
By:
Can't remember if anyone got the winner, but there were some good ante-post tips put up on this thread
(in terms of getting a run at a decent price). Good luck for the rest of the Fest. |
|
By:
Can someone plz enlighten me on who won The Arkle? I've genuinely forgotten (I'm not kidding!).
|
|
By:
defi du seul...................................................................................no only joshin ......duc de genievres
|
|
By:
Oh yes, DDG - the Irish one. Now wonder I'd already forgotten.
Not a good Festival with no run from BD (fell); Benie (fell at the last); Champ and Santini (2nd, after losing another shoe); Paisley Park could redeem (hopefully). All these in doubles and trebles with (Tiger Roll). Now Tiger with TDH. |
|
By:
equine flew • February 25, 2019 12:34 PM GMT
Now looks like me if Defi du Seuil will be re-routed to Arkle, leaving Lostintranslation a certainty for the JLT Eventually it turns out that these end up 1st & 2nd in the JLT.....(antepost is tough - just saying)  |
|
By:
LALOR and the ‘outside of top two finish last time out’ Arkle stat…
If Lalor is to justify Arkle favouritism then he’ll need to become only the third horse in the last 22 renewals to win it off NOT finishing in the first two last time out… The Arkle is slowly starting to fall apart as we edge closer to the big day, with both Dynamite Dollars and Le Richebourg posting sick-notes in recent weeks and Defi Du Seuil likely to be heading for the longer JLT option. Lalor himself has missed a couple of engagements due to the fast ground but as things stand he’s bang on course for the big day and he sits snuggly at the head of the betting, despite finishing a well-beaten third when last seen, in the G1 Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December. And it’s that defeat that has me slightly concerned, particularly when you dig into the trends of the previous 21 winners of the race… 19/21 finished in the top 2 on their final start before winning the Arkle Only Contraband and the mighty Moscow Flyer won the Arkle having not finished 1st or 2nd last time out. The stats for those horses that lined up in the Arkle off third or worse placed finish are… 2/69 | 3% S/R | -£54.50 LSP – W&P 11/69 | 16% S/R – 45% below expectation Not great reading for Lalor fans… Also worth noting that 14 of the last 15 winners of the Arkle had 1 or 2 starts in the last 90 days, Lalor has been off the track for 94 days… Just a few niggles that might make you think twice about lumping on the Arkle fav… The defence… His victory in the Arkle Trial at the track in November tells us the fences hold no fear for him and in winning that race he put up one of the best novice chase performances of the season. There’s no doubt that on his day he can win the race… but has his preparation (forced in some way by the ground conditions) just been all wrong for him? Conclusion… That last time out effort is a worry and the stats for finishing outside the top 2 last time out don’t make for pleasing reading. It’s not the only trend, on my race trends anyway, that he’ll fall down on either. Just depends on how many of the others come into the race with a stronger profile (I know at least one will come in with full marks on my final NTF figures)… |
|
By:
TTT - who fancies what for 2020?
|
|
By:
For what it's worth I'm having an early speculative bet on Felix Desjy and might have a tiny
investment on Global Citizen |
|
By:
Really like Thomas Darby @ 25/1.
|
|
By:
PeteTheBloke 13 Jul 18 18:53
Every year everyone seems to know the winner ages before I do, so I'm starting this thread in the hope that I'll get a share of the shrewd ante-post info and win on this race for once. I have just gone through the whole thread and unless I missed it, I did not see the winners name mentioned under any context at any time within the thread pre race !!! Not once  |
|
By:
Darby @ 25/1 for me too.
|
|
By:
duffy16 Sep 19 15:32Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 21,132 | Blogger: duffy's blog
PeteTheBloke 13 Jul 18 18:53 Every year everyone seems to know the winner ages before I do, so I'm starting this thread in the hope that I'll get a share of the shrewd ante-post info and win on this race for once. I have just gone through the whole thread and unless I missed it, I did not see the winners name mentioned under any context at any time within the thread pre race !!! Not once I suspected as much. Let's hope we do better in 2020. (2020 foresight?) |
|
By:
Laurina confirmed as going chasing... she's 14/1 for this with the bet365 cash out option so seems a no brainer.
Also backed the following all EW: Thomas Darby 25/1 Al Dancer 33/1 Rouge Vif 33/1 |
|
By:
I was all in on Laurina going into the CH and I was desperately disappointed, despite it being handed to her on a plate she was dreadful, I think the big question about her i.e. does she have the pace was answered with an emphatic NO, there was no gear change with Walsh stating that she was never travelling despite what a few thought, she's got a question against her on better ground, all the more so now with a bigger question against her with regards pace and that's before we even see how she takes to fences.
I may be overly against her because of how disappointed I was after the CH but we'll see. She'll certainly bump into a good few decent novices in Ireland through the season where the trials will be far more competitive than over here so we'll have a really good idea about her going into the festival. She hurt me    |
|
By:
Wouldn't get too involved with Laurina for any chases atm, Not blowing anyway away at home with her fencing.
|
|
By:
anyone away*
|
|
By:
Thomas Darby needs 2.5 trip
Hasn't the scope for an Arkle  |
|
By:
I cashed out my Thomas Darby bet after his run (same for both Rouge Vif and Al Dancer!). Agree he looks more of a JLT type...
And the stable already have the Arkle winner anyway |
|
By:
Laurina-fav makes his debut over 2.5 at Gowran on
SOFT ground tomorrow |
|
By:
Angels Breath impressive at
Ascot |
|
By:
I have just read an article on atr app from TG about Summerville Boy. My post is nothing at all to do with the horse and his arkle chances but more that it serves as a benchmark for other trainers to aspire to in terms of providing clear and transparent information to the public. I read the article and felt that I completely understood the plan, strategy and trusted what he said. Like I say imo many other trainers could take a leaf out of his book. It can’t be that difficult right.
|
|
By:
City Island going to LepRDSTOWN
Xmas meeting |
|
By:
Got a new fav
Notebook beats Fakir while Laurina breaks a blood vessel Don't think the true fav has YET been revealed |
|
By:
I think Fakir D'oudaries will gain his revenge here given a more enterprising ride than at Leopardstown earlier today.
|