Cheltenham Festival
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*** Arkle Chase ***
*** Arkle Chase ***
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I'll eat my hat if it's soft ground.
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It's good at the moment with plenty of rain forecast between now and then. And the JLT is on wednesday. What price for this ground with bookies?
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It'll be soft enough on day 1 whether it be from the skies or courtesy of Claisse.
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What site are you using for the forecast? I haven't yet seen one that makes me think he won't need to water. I don't buy the it'll be soft after Claisse has watered it argument. Standard times are regularly beaten on day one. The first day is softer than it used to be, but I think Claisse generally does a good job of achieving true good to soft ground.
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www.myweather2.com
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The safety issue has an even higher degree of importance than normal with last years fatalities, whatever he'd normally put on for day 1 you can add a few more buckets on top for this year IMO.
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It was bottomless last year though. Surely that was an argument against overwatering?
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I do not think there is any need this year...the heavens will see to that; the going's changed from good to good/good to soft for both courses.
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There is enough rain in the forecast to justify waiting until at least Wednesday before watering. The other issue could be damage to the tented areas and temporary stands if they get the 60mph winds on Sunday but they should have time to repair it.
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A lot forecast there on Wednesday & Thursday, more than I've seen on other forecasts. Might not quite materialise in those numbers however and Cheltenham dries quickly in normal years and this one has been very dry. Maybe my previous comment was a little premature, but I'm still going to assume good to soft for now.
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Who gives a toss about the tents? I'll be watching it on the box with the mute button on stand-by; selections and going are the key to a successful and rewarding Cheltenham Festival punting.
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Well we don't want to lose a day to the wind like that day a decade or so ago.
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Given the forecast of highly inclement weather prior esp this wednesday and next would Defi Du Seuil be running in The Arkle (tues) eventually instead of The JLT where he's 2nd fav (deposed from fav) and given the injury to Le Richebourg? He barely stayed 2m 4f on good to soft, on soft or worse unlikely surely.
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They need urgent medical attention if they not run in this
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I'd concur esp if it comes up soft or worse on wednesday, and the possibility of Lalor being an absentee here, if so.
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Lalor out to 6.0 on the exchange, do we have a problem?
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Inclement weather - he finds it difficult to jump off sticky ground.
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11/12 age 6/7
10/12 ran within 52 days 10/12 winner lto 9/12 min 2 chase wins 10/12 rated 152 or above 11/12 min 3 runs current season 9/12 min 2 wins novice campaign "He finds it difficult to jump off sticky ground" 101 Reasons to question this horse,yet we get that. His form figures left handed....... 1,2,13,1,1 Unknown ground is the least of his worries. One of the least appealing profiles of any entered. 1/5 and 3/6 in two chase starts,not been seen since. A race where jumping will be key,having experience of bigger fields can be a big positive. Getting a clear sight of your fences,being able to go short or long. Handling the undulations when the heat is turned up. A top class novice trainer,and a pilot to match. That left handed profile could be the key to him,who knows. Struggling to see the positives this end. |
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thanks for putting up the stats noc,....handy .........liking the look of hardline if he lines up, has a few engagements and decent consistent form decent form in ireland although he misses the last time out win trend he meets a fair few others .
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biggest negative for me is no festival runs,his run at cheltenham in november is possibly the best form,as long as it doesnt go really soft he will be okay he won a grade 1 hurdle on soft at aintree,he goes well fresh and at this time of year (get the feeling he is like the wife and prefers warmer weather) with 2 wins at aintree and his race will be the first race on the chase course which may help as it wont be cut up,although looking at weather forecast dont see it being soft
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Defi is still in, and would be a near definite along with Kalashnikov if Lalor is out should the heavens open with a vengeance, I reckon.
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If it's proper soft Defi would have to run here I would have thought.
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^^
If so, Lostintranslation could be gifted The JLT, I reckon. |
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Theres more than two with a chance in the JLT.
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As I'm a Glen Forsa supporter even though soft would most definitely suit him I'd would be very scared of DDS running here, he would have the real class edge in this field on that ground.
DDS had a problem organizing himself at his fences in the race that Lalor was so impressive in, slower ground would help in that respect, he jumped so much better going a shade slower over further subsequently, if they waited and encountered softer than ideal ground in the JLT then his stamina would be brought into question...who knows  |
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Would be hard pushed to find a lower ranked hurdler than Glen Forsa that won an Arkle .
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Fair point Paulo47 ......does he have the inherent speed to win an Arkle.
Channon may be the name under the trainer column. Everything about this horse suggests the "Henrietta" touch has been applied. Brought along very slowly,they had one thing in mind for him,a chasing career. Hard not to be impressed with his jumping,clean and accurate,joy to watch. Just what does she do with them,Mr Whitaker in the same ownership is very similar. Brings to the table a progressive profile,but so too will a few others. Very prominent in his chase starts so far,will he get a sniff early doors? Channon 3/48 cheltenham J Burke 0/46 cheltenham Again the trainer/jockey question,are they both grade 1 material,is that factored into the price. 6 of the last 7 Arkles won by odds on shots,this looks much more like it. Top class novice chasers at speed .......always a wonderful sight. |
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backed ornua at 14-1
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I've got Lalor at 33/1 for this but not at all confident in the prep. Would also be on that wants ground no slower than GS. Given that, I'm looking elsewhere and the two I am drawn towards are Hardline 10/1 and Us and Them 16/1 both NRNB. Hardline has excuses for his defeat LTO and Us and Them has been a bit unlucky to bump into Le Richebourg.
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If soft or worse, only one I'll be interested in ie Defi; still 15 here (only 7/2 nrnb).
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No way Defi goes to the Arkle even if its bottomless imo
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I'm on GF at 33's but am worried about the class edge, especially if DDS rocks up here, softer the ground the better for GF but it would drag Defi into this race I think.
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If it's soft or worse - it seems it will be softer on thursday than tuesday given the forecast - Lostintranslation would have the edge over Defi, I firmly believe, and connections would think so too. Similarly, Defi would have the edge over Lalor, his main adversary here, I believe, given the latter dislike for boggy ground.
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Hobbs knows the JLT is more suited to DDS,especially with the amount of pace in the Arkle as it stands.
Be amazed if he goes Arkle myself. |
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What about the Clondaw supp? Unexpected.
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I'd concur if the ground was decent - Defi would have little chance against Lalor - but on slower/boggy ground a different kettle of fish; the JLT on boggy ground will sap his stamina too much, I reckon, against Lostintranslation.
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marychain1
06 Mar 19 08:22 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 28,689 | Blogger: marychain1's blog I've got Lalor at 33/1 for this but not at all confident in the prep. Think it would be a great story if he won, wouldn't be a dry eye in the house if he did. Cheltenham always seems to throw up these stories. would though find it uncomfortable backing a favourite at cheltenham when it's last race was a stinker. It's almost as if that is being ignored. |
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on a line through us and them hardline comes out a similar horse to le richeborge who was fav before being ruled out .
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Ground will be no worse that G/S, so don't think there is even a question here any more.
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Kalashnikov @ 10/1 looks the bet to me.
Easy to excuse his last two runs imo. |