Cheltenham Festival
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stayers hurdle 2018
stayers hurdle 2018
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^^done Apple's Jade, and Samcro just incase the going is heavy.
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How does heavy ground make them run here?
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He's backed Samcro in every race he can think of (including the Mares Hurdle, most likely)
I wouldn't let it concern you AC. |
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What I meant was should the ground come up heavy Samcro could be diverted to the Supreme instead.
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could miss the boat over too.
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This is looking good for Yanworth with the likelihood of softish ground (at best) which would stretch the stamina of Supasundae to the limit; Yanworth is also a higher rated hurdler than Sam Spinner.
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Very soft ground will just make Yanworth even slower and mean his mistakes are even more costly as making the ground back up will use up stmaina.
He might even fail due to lack of stamina anyway given he has mainly be campaigned over 2 to 2 1/2 miles and only ever raced once at 3m on good ground on a sharp track. Clearly soft ground isn't in Supasundaes favour but there are plenty of proven stayers in there. |
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Unowhatimeanharry is gradually creeping back into contention. His price has contracted significantly the last few days. A forgotten horse, he is no longer, and only 12 from 22 here.
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Not sure why!!
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The Sizing John/Djakadam effect perhaps.
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You mean the fact his proven to be high class and acts well at the Festival.
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Sam Spinner tonked him and i cannot see that being turned around.
Could be an e/w shout i guess. |
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His trainer reckoned Unowhatimeanharry was turned out again too quickly post his seasonal debut victory. I hope he's correct; Unowhatimeanharry was my banker for this at the outset of the new season.
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In what world was he a banker?
 He got well beat last year and is getting old.PS: not saying he can’t win and depending on other results I’ll be cheering him on. |
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Yanworth is high class. Won over the trip. Far from ideal prep but he is the class act and has beaten supasunadae over the trip.
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He also got beat by Beer Goggles who is below the required level.
All in all his form this season is not good enough,and as Uncle says hes getting on a tad now. Tough stayer on his day though. |
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Yanworth hard to read but has more ability than all these combined. As such, will take a chance.
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Yep,Yanworth the one to beat imo.
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Has this ^ thing had an outing over hdls this season?
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The horse has not.
Not at all bothered about that. |
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Sometimes they jump a bit big after reverting tho
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47 horses have ran in a Grade 1 hurdle at the festival having NOT ran in a hurdle race lto.....All lost
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im on penhill but i see sam spinner as a very big danger
penhill has the toe and s s has the stamina great race ahead |
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Supasundae going to take an awful lot of beating for me.
Yanworth only just beat him at Aintree and Jessie said she felt he was slightly over the top by then after a hard season. Has apparently matured, and filled out and improved no end this year. Had a great prep, wants better ground and has a great record at the Festival. Think Yanworth will do very well to confirm that Aintree form myself on the back of their respective seasons and preps. |
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I've come round to thinking Sam Spinner is overpriced for this, especially with all the rain forecast next Wednesday (if it materialises).
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Not convinced Supasundae stays. Think he flattered last time out. Not won at Cheltenham and far too short on what he has achieved for me.
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Charwell. Supasundae hasn't won at Cheltenham?! Need to re-read the formbook mate
 Yanworth beat him less than a length when they met over 3m and he seemed to stay well enough that day to my eyes. |
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Sorry CCM, meant to say at this trip @ chelt. Think the uphill finish will find him out.
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Agree re Sam Spinner, should be fav on form this season.
I do think Yanworth has a touch of class that maybe others don't,but I do fear Sam Spinner as we know he stays well and has the best form we have seen this season imo. I am also not convinced about Supasundae getting home well enough,but be silly to say he cant win. |
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I think the ones at the top of the market (unless Apple's Jade gatecrashes) that have no stamina issue at this trip are Sam Spinner, Yanworth, Penhill and Unowhatimeanharry. On the other hand, Supasundae has not won at the trip, was outstayed by Yanworth at Aintree and better on good ground. As such I'd tend to discount his chance in this competitive looking contest.
L'Ami Serge does not stay 3m either. He was outstayed in the JLT despite taking it up 2 out; he won a very weak race at Auteuil. Penhill is talented but his prep is far from satisfactory; this is his 1st race back from an injury after about a year. Sam Spinner has been running in handicap races, is improving beat and beat L'Ami Serge (travelled well but found nothing 1 out) and a below par Unowhatimeanharry. If the form is genuine he'll have a 1st class chance, but I'm yet to be convinced. Yanworth (on merit and hope) and Unowhatimeanharry (hope) are my two against the field. |
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I think with doubts about some of them Wholestone could run into a place @ 16/1 too.
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Definitely worried about Supasundaes stamina on soft tacky going (which I think looks assured).
Even on decent ground I can see him swinging on the bridle as they make the long run between the last two flights but then get done up the hill. Like Annie Power when she came 2nd. Hope I'm wrong though. |
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L'ami Serge stays every yard of 3 miles, the problem is that he does nothing off of the bridal, if I could convince myself that they'd find an answer to that question I'd back him, the race looks wide open to me and wouldn't be surprised if something from left field came and won it.
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^^I'd beg to differ. I understand his constitution is suspect and so is his stamina over 3m, I believe.
L'Ami Serge took it up with 2 to jump in the JLT but got past very soon after similarly in the Relkeel after jumping into the lead at the last. He was beaten by Shaneshill (not a 3m Gp1 horse), Agrapat , Afzal and Black Hercules; he's always flattered to deceive. I think his best run was his 2nd in the Supreme behind Douvan after a poor start and troubled passage in the race. |
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He was fourth in Douvan's Supreme not 2nd.
He's only run three times over 3 miles plus - all since June last year - finishing 123. Basically agree with Duffy - was disappointed - but not surprised - by his finishing effort behind Sam Spinner, on the other hand his effort behind Arctic Fire in last year's County should not be forgotten either. Can't see him out of the first three but hard to trust him to be in the first one. |
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I meant L'Ami Serge's 4th in the Supreme and not 2nd.
A bit strange Yanworth has been drifting a touch lately given the probable conditions he'd like next week. |
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Speaking of L'Ami Serge, I see he has been left in the Ryanair. That race looks like cutting up and I can totally see him running in it now Top Notch is out. The owners would still have Wholestone for the Stayers Hurdle.
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40/1 nrnb is a bit silly for Ryanair. He's far better than that.
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We all love these "enigmas" don't we
, I wouldn't want him in the Ryanair personally because for a horse like him, coming up the likes of UDS who basically tends to find extra on the run in forcing L'ami to seriously come off of the bridal is not what he'd want.To be honest he'd have to do the same in a stayers albeit perhaps not to the same degree, however Yanworth is a bit iffy himself when hitting the front, Supasundae is a questionable stayer and SS is stepping up in class and is fav. If we'd seen more from Penhill he'd be interesting, it's a big leap from an AB but I was really impressed with how he ran away from his rivals at the end of that race which is typically more grueling, he looked like he was just finishing off a 2 miler, Punchestown is probably his main target although he seems to be getting support, he's quite short. |
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The New One.......its all gone on the pink side!!!!
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