Cheltenham Festival
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stayers hurdle 2018
stayers hurdle 2018
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unowhatimeanharry the forgotten horse. Announced a def. runner today by Alan King. Last years running looks an awful lot better than the current lot and he wasn't beaten far.
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Paddy Power and Betfair have Yanworth shorter than Supasundae; I'm amazed by that tbh
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Uno could do a Treve, and JP gets his 1st and 2nd. Here's hoping.
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Yanworth has beaten Supasundae over 3m,and Supasundae has never won over 3m. So it should not be that much of a surprise Chief.
Not saying either will win or not,both have a fair chance imo. Out of the two i would be fairly confident that Yanworth would get home better,but of course its possible that Supasundae is now a better horse than Yanworth. Im just glad hes now in the race he imo should always have been in. Fav should be Sam Spinner,and i think he will be. |
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I am honestly surprised Budd. Yanworth has been plodding along in novice chases this year, not performing particularly well over middle distances. I know those are probably over too short a trip, but I expected him to perform much better than he did. I'd be much more inclined to support him if they pulled stumps on the chasing a while ago and actually put him over a hurdles race as a prep.
I am not reading too much into last year's Aintree run, although I'm not ignoring it as it is Yanworth's best run to date imo. There was only a length in it, and Supasundae has really kicked on since then - Yanworth hasn't imo. Yanworth's flat spots would be a concern to me too - the best of them have had them (Big Bucks springs to mind in this race), and he's vulnerable to one who can ge him off the bridle and out of his comfort zone early. I've not got a bet in this now (laid off my Bacardys bet for a small profit because concerned he hasn't ran for ages - been entered but declared a non runner), so viewing this race with an open mind. |
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Considering he has run poor over fences his actual form puts him very close and arguably in front of the favourite for the jlt
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More due to the JLT looking like a poor renewal, with a weak favourite rather than good performances by Yanworth though. If Yanworth is a true 3 miler (he must be if he's in this) he'd get nowhere near the principles in the RSA imo, which looks a strong renewal.
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He'd struggle to get near the RSA principles as he doesn't jump fences well enough, surely that's obvious. It's clear from his runs over fences the engine is still there and fine as he gave away so much ground at the fences in his chases.
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When was Bacardys declared a non runner? I know he was pulled out at Gowran in January over nasal discharge but I didn't hear anything since and he was entered up last weekend.
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Sorry well chief, misread about Bacardys.
Although the market on here is not promising for him turning up to be honest |
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Not a non runner in the Stayers, just concerned he's been entered a couple of times recently and hasn't ended up running, not the type of prep I'd like.
Could be right about the fences. It's obvious its me vs the world on this, so I'll leave it for now and just see how he runs in the Stayers and will admit I was wrong if he wins. I just think he's being priced up on an Aintree race 12 months ago; very risky strategy when taking what could be 3/1 or so. |
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I was a fan of Yanworth's after the festival bumper where I thought he was unlucky (McCoy got caught out IMO), anyway as time went on I went off him and particularly at 2 miles he simply never had the change of gear and got caught out.
However, everything has it's price as it were and the more I think about it the more I like the idea of 3 miles for him, the times that he has been caught out particularly over hurdles have been against quicker horses over shorter trips. In this race he won't encounter that type of opposition and the ability he has to travel through his races will help him greatly, he's completely unexposed at the trip and if you look back to the Liverpool win he wasn't doing a tap in front. The race looks to lack depth quality wise and I could definitely see him going off fav...I'm quite pleased with myself that I fancy him because I've proved to myself that I'm capable of fancying something that isn't "one of my horses"   |
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Everything about Yanworth,his form,watching him etc, just screams staying hurdler to me.
Whether he is good enough is another matter,but i am pretty sure this is his best chance of success. |
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Chief
He was available at 10 nrnb when trainer said they were thinking about reverting back to hurdles. Agree re 3/1 or so though. |
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Yanworth is a top class hurdler over any trip. His champion Hurdle run last year was just too bad to be true, he ran no race at all and finished well behind too many horses he had already beaten easily . It wasn't the trip it was just an off day and its just wrong to pigeonhole him as a 3 miler.
Apart from that one run he is actually otherwise unbeaten over 2 miles, hurdles and fences. This includes a Grade 1 where he comfortably beat the reliable yardsticks The New One and My Tent Or Yours, and had they gone the Champion Hurdle route with him this year I would have expected him to hit the frame, just as I would expect him to win ,or go very close ,in the Stayers Hurdle. |
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Otherwise unbeaten over 2 miles maybe but obvious that's not his trip. Prefer Sundae myself. Although Faugheen wasn't at his best in defeat, Sundae looks the improver. Would be hopeful trip, ground etc all falls into place on the day
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Well his record over 2 miles is 6 wins from 7. He has beaten supposed 2m specialists like The New One, MTOY, Sceau Royal, Ch'tibello and Charbel over this trip so, no matter what way i look at it, I cannot see how its obvious 2 miles is not his trip. The fact is, his trip is any trip between 2 miles and 3 miles. His owner also owns Buveur D'air so it makes sense that they would run him in the Stayers Hurdle
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I’ve said elsewhere that I thought that they should keep him over fences - but they haven’t and so probably think that this is the more winnable option. They may be right as the RSA looks a pretty hot race, but this one is no walkover either.
I’ve always said that the Stayers is a race for slow horses and it might just be that Yanworth fits the bill there, but it’s rarely won by anything less than a very good performance and I’m not sure he has one of them in him at the Festival. I just think he will come up short for the 4th season running, despite being well fancied in each of those races. |
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Has Supasundae improved? He was outstayed by Apple's Jade over 24f who is more effective over 20f, in my opinion; he was also beaten and outstayed by Yanworth in the Ryanair Hurdle at Aintree and adversary here (again).
I think the improver Sam Spinner would be a shorter price than either Yanworth and Supasundae but for his stable. |
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Thought Sundae asked Jade a very serious question, then to beat Faugheen (still very useful) excellent form
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The problem I (if it is a problem) always have with the Sam Spinners of this world, i.e. the improver out of handicaps is that I've got to see them do it at the highest level before I believe it, I mean his two last runs of been good but it's not long since he's been beaten getting 6lbs by Court Minstrel. 5/1...shocking price now.
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Thing is though Duffy,hes now a different horse since stepping up to 3m,and he has to be priced around that after his last run imo.
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Both Beer Goggles and Sam Spinner were overrated after beating Unowhatimeanharry but the Fry stable form might have a lot to do with that. Beer Goggles was well beaten next time and it won't surprise me if Sam Spinner does the same.
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I hope you're right, and Uno's defeat was related to a his stable lack of form. If so, Yanworth could have a 'walk-in-the-park' for a fruitful Festival (finally).
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Sam Spinner looks a much better horse than BG to me.
Certainly beat Harry a lot further,best 3m performance of the season by some way imo. |
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Could be Bud, but I still think that last years field was stronger and with the sad demise of Nicholls Canyon, Unow has the best form and the previous years Stayers has often been the best guide.
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Yanworth is firming up into jtfav (here)with Supasundae, the drifter is Sam Spinner. I think this is related to the media road show at Harrington. But I hope it is JP's money for the price contraction of Yanworth.
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The rails turn they're back on jp but sure not to worry I'll get a few 10er on ante post
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Is there only me that fancies The New One for the stayers? I've a very fair 18/1 about him for this race, level weights he must surely have a chance. The distance is the unknown of course, hence the decent price. Its a long time since he ran 21 furlongs at Cheltenham but won them all and finished a close second to Fishers Cross over half a furlong shorter, more recently finishing behind Buveur D'Air over 20 furlongs was a decent performance then giving away weight to L'Ami Serge in the Select Hurdle at Sandown after two hard races at Cheltenham and Aintree was another good performance.
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Tough one to call TT.
Recent examples like Nichols Canyon and Solwhit both offer hope and Celestial Halo finished second in the Stayers at his first attempt at 3m. I did think that The New One has a few too many miles on the clock these days, but Celestial Halo's place was his 35th race, this will be The New One's 37th. It's one of those where if he won, I wouldn't be surprised, but I can personally see him placing, but will struggle to win - they've tried this a couple of years too late in my opinion. When he was badly hampered behind Our Conor I think they had every right to try again the following year, but when he was thumped by Faugheen, I think they should have drawn stumps on 2m then. |
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I agree with all of that Wellchief, I'll be happy with a place having backed him each way. This is his busiest season ever having already had five races but he shows no signs of fatigue, that last race win was a cracking effort giving weight away to a 156 rated horse three years his junior. The going could be in his favour if it turns softer than soft, just the niggling doubt about the distance.
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Good luck with it mate - if he wins then he'd be a really popular winner.
I personally think he'll get the distance ok, he never looked like stopping over 2.5m when he won those Grade 1's a few years ago - it's the number of hard slogs that he's had over the years that'd worry me. You're dead right about beating Ch'tibello last time - no world beater by any means, but giving weight to a mid 150's is a decent run, especially over what is now a distance too short....of note, Yanworth beat that same rival by the same distance, over 2m, giving the same weight at this point last year and went off favourite for the Champion Hurdle!!! You'll get a good run for your money and wouldn't put anyone off having an ew flutter at 18's. Yanworth not one for me, Supasundae possible stamina doubts, Penhill not seen anywhere, Bacardys falling over fences, Sam Spinner still a bit of an unknown - I'm talking myself in to backing him  |
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Its a real quality field for the Stayers this year, and along with the Gold Cup and QM, these are the 3 races that intrigue me most.
I cant ever remember a better Stayers hurdle on potential. Its usually contested by horses who'd have no chance in a Champion Hurdle but Yanworth and Supasundae are proper Grade 1 winners at 2m. TNO also even if getting on in years.Harry getting on too but is consistent. Lil Rockefeller gave it a real go last year. Wholestone loves the place. Penhill and Bacardys were top class novices. Yanworth will be my strongest bet of the week. |
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Ffs boys why is everyone still fascinated with the New 1. He's been winning the Champion every yr for the last few years and now the World Hurdle. He's no chance!!
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Correct
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Being 3rd, 4th and 5th twice in the Champion Hurdle hardly has failure written all over it!! It has no bearing on how he will run in the Stayers Hurdle over an extra mile. No one is 'fascinated' with the horse, just stating our opinions, thats all.
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Fascinated? About 4 posts out of 155 in this thread relate to The New One.
Someone comes on here and tries to state a logical case for an outsider, I reckon the least people could do is hear them out and respect their opinion...it's how a good forum should work. |
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Every runner has a sporting chance especially The new One - he's credential and form but stamina is taken on trust. Yanworth is clear fav (here); he could start fav, all things being equal.
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I really fancy TNO and think he's a ridiculous price. I think he has the the touch of class that the others lack - plus he's as tough as old boots and invariably runs well at the festival.
I respect Supasundae, as he too could have the requisite class. I'll take those two against the field. After backing him the last three years, I'm finally confident that Yanworth just ain't a Festival winner. Cue romp. |
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just bet apples jade for this at 14 to 1 nrnb they can have my money for a couple of weeks but if something happens saddle slips, falls at the first in the mares, they could even change there mind i will have a nice bet
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