Cheltenham Festival
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stayers hurdle 2018
stayers hurdle 2018
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hopefully by these comments, you can talk tizzard into changing his mind joevalue to suit the bet you have struck
at the end of the day the horse can't jump and it is the right decision to go back hurdling, hell have a chance to win one at aintree |
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It's the usual nonsense from Imp, CCM.
After Yorkhill gets tired towards the end of his seasonal debut in a G1 3m chase, he's nominating about 8 other options for it - including the Champion Hurdle! Yet Tizzard should stick to the plan with FO  Anyway, there's far too much written about both FO and Yorkhill (mainly by that clown) on here, so I'll leave it at that. I do agree, however, that the Stayers looks wide open - however, one with a touch of class is TNO and he is apparently targeting it. The only concern would be if there are any further injury news regarding the champion hurdle market leaders, they might decide it's worth one last shot. |
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Presuambly they will aim TNO at the Haydock Park Champion Hurdle Trial race he has won for the last 3 years - even though he always makes incredibly hard work of it.
Then I guess his Cheltenham target will depend on the ground - genuine soft and I bet they go for the CH, good'ish and it will be the Stayers. With all these new potential runners the Stayers will end up far more competitve than the races the connections are switching them from. |
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'joevalue', you are correct. Finian's Oscar was outstayed by Bacardy in Ireland despite looking like the winner. The former might win a weak RSA eg without Yanworth or Monalee but would struggle to win the JLT because of the anticipated quicker pace and his none-too-confident jumping.
Thistlecrack should never have been targeting the Gold Cup last season when he was head and shoulders above the rest, and got injured as a consequence. Otherwise, he'd have bagged another Stayers title, I firmly believe. I'd like to see Yanworth here more than any present fencers given his owner's other once gold prospect ie Unowhatimeanharry has been proven rather mediocre this season. Yanworth would have a chance 2nd to none, I believe. |
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Yes,agree re Yanworth, and at 10 nrnb, a decent price imo.
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I understand what people are saying about Yanworth, but he's just won a dipper (beating the fav for the JLT in the process) and despite the chat, I can't see him reverting to hurdles.
They're given a year as novices for a reason and that's to improve and sharpen up their jumping without having to compete against slicker more battle-hardened rivals. He's always looked a chaser and from his bumper days the yard thought they had a Gold Cup horse on their hands - I personally was surprised that they didn't send him over fences straight after his novice hurdling campaign, but then they probably thought the champion hurdle had an easier look to it, I suppose he did start favourite. Nonetheless, I'd persevere, he will improve and could yet have his day in the sun. |
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In terms of pocket talk, then personally I'd have rather seen FO run over 3m over fences as I have an AP ticket for the TAX. However, removing personal greed from the equation then given FO's jumping his last few races this is probably the safest option.
However as has already been said, CT has not done his rep any good. Bar running the horse over 4m and the flat it's going to have run over every NH distance and over both obstacles. To my mind that cannot be a good thing for the horse in terms of winning at the big spring festivals. At least with Buveur D'Air, despite changing codes last year, he ran over the same distance. It's a bit amateurish from an outsiders view. Perhaps more importantly, getting back to my pocket. What will happen with Supasundae? I've got 16 for the Stayers and think he has (had?) a reasonable chance! With both the Potts dying (RIP) it's unclear now how things will work. I suspect CT would have been kicked up his backside were they still alive. |
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For TAX read RSA. Bloody autocorrect.
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Supasundae is the Potts #1 for the Stayers at the moment. Can't see FO doing anything to change that. Even if he wins the Cleeve i see no reason why they would switch Supasundae. He's a really tough genuine horse and still looks to be improving rapidly. Well done taking the 16/1.
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As long as Cooper is not on Supasundae (Power/Harrington) your 16/1 voucher looks pretty solid more so if Yanworth is an absentee.
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I got 16, as once we hit Xmas, usually, if I'm having a bet I'll cover it with an AP for the Fes. Means I get a fair amount of crap AP bets that go down, but I do end up with a few that are reasonable. I did Supasundae in the Christmas Hurdle and he ran a stonker against AJ so the price collapsed.
Not worried about the jockey, will be Robbie Power regardless if it runs. |
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Have you seen the Aintree race over 3m between Yanworth and Supasundae? The latter was moving better yet found little after jumping the last almost in unison.
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Something could be amiss with Unowhatimeanharry - he's been matched at 34 here with more on offer at 24, 25 and 26. Yanworth induced perhaps.
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You could be spot on with The New One... E.Gold..
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The money is pointing Yanworth this way, and Unowhatimeanharry is drifting like a barge. Is it related?
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Maybe Penny.... I couldn`t believe they have waited this long to have a go.... Grumpy Nigel finally gives in...
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Beer Goggles still looks value at around 16/1, with the horse due to run this weekend probably worth backing now as if it wins it'll go a good deal shorter
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My long shot in this, Bacardys, entered back over hurdles (3m) this week. Holding out hope he runs and wins before a tilt at the stayers.
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Good shout that with Bacardys, definitely has the profile of one that could be in with a chance and there's no standout candidates so surely a year where an improving horse will be in with a big shout, especially for connections that won the race last year.
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Beer Googles is a mega 7/1 for saturday's Cleeve Hurdle and 38 (here) for this race. I think his win over Unwhatimeanharry in the Long Walk Hurdle has yet to be fully appreciated as he is not from a top stable. Finian's Oscar is 3/1 fav but was beaten over 20f in Ireland by Bacardy; Wholestone (4/1 2nd fav) finished behind Beer Goggles in the Long walk Hurdle. I think L'Ami Serge who has another engagement at Doncaster is an unlikely runner.
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Yeah was just looking through the Cheltenham odds on here and was shocked Beer Goggles was so big, was actually about to check the RP to see if he'd been injured or something lol thought it'd be 20s at the most on here!
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And definitely agree about the odds being so big because he's not from a top stable, also the fact that not many people knew of the horse (or knew much about him) - when a horse wins out of nowhere the general mindset is to say 'well must have been a bit of a fluke' rather than accepting one didn't do their homework fully.
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I think Beer Goggles has a similar profile and improvement as Sam Spinner yet his price is 7x bigger than the latter. How peculier?
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Have added TNO to my growing portfolio in the Stayers this year. Was going to back him on the day, but on Saturday realised he won't be priced up anything close to 16 or 20.
I missed the 20, but took 16 AP and just hope that NTD doesn't change his mind again! Given I've backed for every Champion Hurdle and most races he runs in, I'd kick myself if he won and I wasn't on. Mugs betting, but sometimes you just have to follow them. |
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I know a lot of people discount horses from small trainers but I take more note of owners than any other factor and the owners of Beer Goggles also have Sykes and Ossie the Oscar so must have the resources to buy good horses. They have had 40 winners in the last 5 years.
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The form of that Beer Goggles race is poor enough.... and I hope he runs, he could easily force Sam Spinner to race faster than ideal and set it up for someone else like TNO
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To me this race hinges on Yanworth running.....or not.
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Not so sure about that Bud. I've been a huge fan of the horse since his bumper days, but he's been really well backed at the festival 3 times and not managed to get his head in front. I'm starting to accept that he might not be good enough at the top level. Whilst the stayers is a race for slow horses, it usually gets won with an impressive performance and I'm not sure Yanworth has that in him. Something will win it and win it well.
Despite thinking all that about Yanworth, I quite fancy TNO |
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I will say TNO will be a 7/1 shot on the day.
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Everything now up in the air after the sad death of Richard Woolacott. Will Beer Goggles run on Saturday?
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Very sad news regarding the trainer of Beer Goggles (BG) Richard Woollacott - he was only 40 yrs old (RIP). It puts everything into perspective. I've backed BG for saturday, run or not, that's secondary now.
I cannot have The New One (tough horse but well past it), and anything else apart from Yanworth (1st class chance); Penhill (if sound) and the unknown 7lb allowance mare La Bague Au Roi. Beer Goggles is a big price (here) and could easily run into a place. |
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Des
I just think hes a 3m hurdler,and could well prove to be a darn good one. If hes given the chance i think he will prove me right. |
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Unowhatimeanharry is still drifting like a barge (50 here) with Yanworth coming into port at 12.5 - race plan made perhaps.
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hope yanworth does run in the stayers.
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Tomorrows race at Galway could be very informative, had the intentions of backing Bacardys for the Stayers Hurdle before the off tomorrow but with the weight he's carrying it'll be tough to win, and even if the horse does win, with that weight on his back and the likely harsh ground just 6 weeks out from the festival it could be a tall order.
However, I'll probably still back it for the stayers hurdle before the off tomorrow because if he does put up an impressive showing carrying all that weight then he'll probably be 3/1 fav by the evening and much shorter on the day |
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Alpha Des Obeaux only failed to Thistlecrack at Cheltenham 2 years ago and its his first run back over hurdles for a long time having won this race 2 years back, 7/1 seems a decent price for tomorrow, wanted to back him for the stayers incase he runs a big race but cant see a price on here :(
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Diamond Cauchois another that might be worth backing for the Stayers at a big price but no odds on here :(
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good morning big field
i think you mean gowran agree a very interesting race i was looking at diamond cauchois as a possible long shot for the stayers however he is not entered. |
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Also took the 18s Bacardys (and the 5s today at Gowran).
I think one of the horses dropping back from chasing to hurdles will win the race so have ended up on: Finians Oscar 50s Yanworth nr-nb 10s Bacardys 18s |
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Barcardys non runner today
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