Cheltenham Festival
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champion hurdle 2017
champion hurdle 2017
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why not i say very open champion and the horse is certainly no mug
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Fair enough.
2 novice hurdles thus far,and close finishes to boot. |
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Fancy 16's Harry?
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Could the inclement weather forecast be a hindrance to his chance? It will certainly be in Buveur D'air's favour.
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you know what budd i think i may play him come the day if the price is right, i still see this as very open race and believe he is far better than a couple of slowly run novices...i think there is cracks in the whole of the top of the market so yes i hope they run him, i certainly do not think in this particular year he will embarrass himself, considering i am still a believer the pipes can get one ready and also believe the horse does have the abilty
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Has there been another announcement regarding Moon Racer. Last I saw he would just remain in both??
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Never mind just seen the exchanges
MR in the Supreme is by far my largest bet of the festival both NRNB and antepost Would have no qualms putting the NRNB refund back on him e/w in the champion hurdle |
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I have had my mind changed.
Your comments make sense Harry,plus watched his two races this season,he improved from Perth to Cheltenham to my eyes,and a fast run CH would be ideal I reckon. He has now won on good and soft so that's in his favour. Is he good enough though?? Well the NR ins with WH is worth taking to find out imo. So that's, Yanworth , Brain Power and Moon Racer.....that will do me now. |
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It makes sense Ricci is cool on supplementing Limini for this race; it also makes sense Buveur D'air could run a big race if the going is soft to heavy.
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tomdeane i tend to disagree with your post on the other thread...the pipes haven't had the artillery that they once had in fact i think the best horse he has actually had through his hands in recent times is un temp and he has done well with him
i think it is very easy to just lay down on the top 2 in the market but neither look very quick, for me it is a stagnant market, whether willie mullins supplements limini is neither here nor there for me with the money the owner has... and in all fairness i do believe 2 miles is her trip so i don't see her as a mares type as don't see that as her ideal trip...anyway you could of taken 3/1 the other day in a horrible race on horrible ground and now we can take 6/1 for the champion hurdle... it is horrible in my book i have always liked yanworth but i don't see the improvement at this trip and also feel he is a better horse with cut in the ground...i saw the application of head gear last time as a desperation measure in order to make him travel in his races but he still isn't very fast and it isn't his fault he is just one paced at the trip imo...he can still win and is a classy type but will need soft for me and pace to run at, the track will suit so he has his chance i also like buvear d'air and said to a friend earlier in the season he is no 33/1 poke for this but obviously went chasing, the rest is history... i also don't think he is that fast he obviously beat the slow boat of sherwoods the other day but his run in the supreme where i believe he got slightly interfered with when the pace was quickening made him a slightly unlucky runner in that race and it also paid to be prominent so i did mark him up he also would like cut in the ground, i get the impression he is probably a flat track horse who handles an undulating track...he also has his chance and i do like him, he is also no world beater brain power i actually have some 28/1 on him but it was just a a price thing...he annoys me as i think he is really good it's just his form left handed and obviously his one run at cheltenham in a hot greatwood...you can forgive him that as it was first time out on bad ground, he is a kalanisi so maybe we have to give him the benefit of the doubt... 8/1 is tight in my book but if he got ideal ground there will be no excuses and he has stepped forward markedly this season and the end of last season all right handed...we will see and i think he is very good there are still a lot of questions that need answering with him, he will also need to step up again, can he do it? he is a quirky type horse so who knows in an open heat, i would have no wish to find out at the price now... i'd say he is nearer a 12/1 poke with all the questions that need answering but i think you'll get a run for your money...would i bet him again no and i only have a peanuts wager for some fun petit mouchoir is becoming a solid type since racing up with the pace and he may have just needed the run the last day, none of his form inspires me and a flatter track would suit but he has his chance...he'll be on the front end and has improved markedly this season with these tactics...i haven't discounted him but like all at the top of the market, can he step up again? we will have to see anyway i still haven't played the race but moon racer offers some spice and he is not a slow horse and we know he was a top class bumper horse...he has no excuses at the track and has won all 3 starts at the track...the pipes are renowned for being able to get one ready and i'd say he would be a seasoned novice after being prepared all last season without reaching the track... his cheltenham novice that he won quite easily for me in a slowly run affair has been nicely franked by ballyandy and movewiththetimes and if either of those won the supreme you'd have to be more hopeful of his chance even though that was a very strange race, however he is already proven off of decent fractions in a champion bumper and yanworth was beaten by him that day easily as well... anyway his form figures say he is a 140 horse but that can be made a mockery of and he for me is a play at the price, we can get 14/1 seems fair and can see him being a punt here against these horses, he is the only one that i actually want to back in a stagnant market and with a lot of exposed types that don't inspire a bet...he may not be good enough but at least we are getting a price to find out and i hope he runs...they will be gutted if he won a supreme by 6 lengths at his age in a very open year without not thinking of having a stab...he has always been a fragile horse and they may only ever get one shot at the title so if i owned him and he was spot on you have to have a go...if he were 6 he should be running in the supreme anyway i think i'm gunna back him |
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I suppose the chances are Moon Racer might get an easier lead in the Champion Hurdle. I appreciate some of the Mullins horses have made all in the Supreme lately but they were like French bred machines and generally the supreme is a bit of a cavalry charge whereas the Champion Hurdle can be more tactical and will most likely have a smaller field.
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what makes you think he'll lead swagger? i think he'll be held up myself, at least that is how i'd want him to be ridden
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I just think he would try to make all in whichever race he goes for. He was only held up in the bumper as I think he got a bad start from recollection. He has been very handy in his races over hurdles to date.
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I'd rather back TNO @ 14's or 16's than back Moonracer at the same price!
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I'm sure they'll want TNO up front so it could end up being a very fast run race if Moon Racer tries to make it as well.
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Hope so, nice fast run race would be ideal.
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I am ready to be shot down for this but an outsider i'm really coming round to like in this years champ hdl is Footpad
 Reason for thinking that, he was staying on in Irish where they went very fast early doors, he would have won given another 100 yds, in the champ hdl they are bound to go fast again with potentially more than 1 front runner, i dont think he got tapped for toe in the irish champ i think he let them get on with it hense why he got so far behind them but can see him staying on up that hill, might run past for 3rd or 2nd but could win it too, ive said all season we could end up with a Sublimity style winner and i backed Sublimity at 25s that year, i was the only guy in Pontins Blackpool that did (worked there that year) and the shop at Squires Gate, in fact probably in the whole of Blackpool 25-33/1 worth a dabble though not sure he will be much shorter if at all on the day. |
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Now VVM shortens in champ and drfts in mares and Limini the opposite
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F'ck it...........I'm betting Douvan for it
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LOL it's crazy isn't it, VVM large 3 figs in market and now just 30 with shrapnel backing it 34+
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Its not completely out of the question that VVM would end up in the CH but there's less than 100 quid in total queued up to back her at prices up to 100-1. That's hardly a gamble in any man's language!
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Good luck harry -- I agree with most of your thinking re the main players. As we've all said pretty much it is an open race and very hard to argue a strong case for anything -- even at the prices. I have always liked Moon Racer but I do think it's asking a hell of a lot for him to win this. I will stick with Buveur D'Air, but wouldn't be surprised to see Limini run a big race.
Re David Pipe -- I agree to an extent that he's not had that much ammunition but he has a lot of horses (and some expensive purchases) and just doesn't seem to land many big prizes (even in handicaps) given his backing. This may be anecdotal in that I'm just noticing the failures (I haven't looked at a big set of data objectively) but I have noticed a lot of horses stagnating or going backwards that seemed promising as youngsters. |
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Ok
Please could someone tell me why Limini could be fancied to win the Churdle?.....if she runs. Answers that don't involve mentioning jokey and trainer would be preferable. |
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Not saying she will win it but she certainly can.She is one of ten potential winners(I am personally discounting Petit Mouchoir and Moon Racer so imo she's one of 8 that can win it).
Beating Apple's Jade comfortably puts her right in the mix and is as good a CH trial as any. She's just a 6 yo and still relatively unexposed and open to improvement.The New One and MTOY are dangers to all with better form but their age is a negative. If you go back to novice form you could take the view that she wasn't right at Aintree,and ignore that run. The trainer thinks so, that will do for me - he doesn't usually do unnecessary excuses. The trainer has always believed her to be a group standard flat horse if she ever went that route.She has lots of gears and as we saw last time, stays well. Its a week race by CH standards where the top 6 in the market were all novices last year.Its now 4 years(the novice class of 2013) since a novice,other than a Mullins horse,has broken into the big league subsequently. The best novices from last year have gone chasing and the best 2 mile hurdlers are injured. I know - I've mentioned the trainer a few times but ignoring the WPM factor is not something i would recommend! |
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A lot of people on here like ratings. So lets use her beating of Apples Jade and take it at face value which i am always a believer of.
Rated 145 before her run with Apples Jade, she put her away with ease, distance was 2 lengths but there was room for a lot more. AJ has an O.R of 153, this surely puts Limini at 155+, a 10ib+ improvement on form. It is not uncommon for horses to improve by 10ib's or more on anything they have shown before, especially at age 6. Given that mares get a 7ib allowance in the big one, this theoretically gives her a potential rating of 162 for the Champ hdl if reproducing her performance in beating AJ and putting it on face value, well Yanworth is OR164 so she only really has a couple pounds to find him, whom is race fav'!! I'm quite happy with my 20/1 thank you Is that better? No mention of WPM RR or RW lol  |
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Why discount Petit Mouchoir FTV? He would have hosed up in the Fighting Fifth had he not come to grief and has been nothing but impressive this year.
Hardly anything to find with Beveur and has much much better form this year; he also had a much fresher Brain Power behind him at Punchestown; he's the most improved horse in the field, and that shows no signs of stopping imo |
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That all makes sense STS, but that rating was over 2.5m in heavy ground, not 2m on spring ground like we normally get at the festival.
Limini may run well, and you have to respect her connections, but sometimes you have to treat each case on its merits, and I think folk are getting a bit carried away on her last run and by what colours she'll be wearing. |
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Limini won the Mares Novices' Hurdle and this race is a natural progression, I assume; she has to run somewhere, so why not here...mixing with the best is good kudos too!
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AJ now rated 151, Limini 152.
Chief, thats just an opinion I have.He was almost swallowed up by Footpad in Leopardstown. You could argue that PM and NC cut each other's throats and therefore Footpad shouldn't have been as close as he was at the finish.But you can also argue that Footpad had nothing to tow him into contention and still nearly got there. I can see the same thing happening in the CH.He wont get a freebie in front (a free running MTOY would see to that) and Cheltenham may not bring the best out of him.He was poor there last year. I really think they will set it up for the strong stayers like Yanworth, Footpad, Limini and My Tent. Thats my opinion but the good news for you is I get it wrong a lot of the time! |
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I am surprised by the support for TNO
 Does anyone else share this view? I've had him onside every year since his first ever Champ hdl attempt and on each of those occasions i've actually backed him as early as October so have had nice prices. I haven't a bean on him apart from the aggregate from the arbs i've had on other horses |
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Not MY Tent, I meant The New One!
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Haha, no worries FTV. His Supreme run last year is the one negative I have because he ran a cracker at Aintree and Punchestown, so that Supreme run definitely was an anomaly.
Re Limini, I think she fully deserves her place in the lineup, but her odds are ridiculous - she has come completely out of nowhere and is now 9/2!! That is based on one run over a trip longer, on ground softer than she'll face here. Before that race, there is absolutely nothing in her form that entitles her to be as short as he is. She won an egg and spoon hurdle at Cheltenham (a 3 legged Yanworth could have won that if he was allowed to race in it), was beaten at Aintree and then beaten against her own sex at Punchestown. Madness. |
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to be as short as she is
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Re David Pipe -- I agree to an extent that he's not had that much ammunition but he has a lot of horses (and some expensive purchases) and just doesn't seem to land many big prizes (even in handicaps) given his backing. This may be anecdotal in that I'm just noticing the failures (I haven't looked at a big set of data objectively) but I have noticed a lot of horses stagnating or going backwards that seemed promising as youngsters.
tom as you must know i like to keep it honest, just remind me of the expensive purchases and the ones that have gone backwards so i can see your thinking, i'm so hooked up in the form book i cannot remember many? |
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STS and FTV
Thanks for answering my question. Some fair comments and food for thought. I would though side with Chiefs comments about the 2,5m rating on heavy ground. That aside I don't really see anything that entitles her to come close in a CH. Improvement is something that could get her into the mix of course,and she does need that,but pretty much all the fancied horses are improvers or very likely to improve. Fair enough her running,but realistically she cannot be backed at the prices on what we know,just what we think she may achieve,and for that one would need bigger than whats available now....well I would anyway. |
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Can I just say.....
Good debate and discussion though,and although less busy,i am finding this forum more useful than last couple of year.Had my mind changed on occasions ,which is no bad thing!! Plenty of reasoned comments and opinions not getting ruined by petty arguments and insults,as has happened frequently in the past. Lets hope it continues . |
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The good news about Limini and Moon Racer possibly going for this is that we are starting to look at some real value. I am personally against both, but they are so prominent in the betting that we are already 4-1 the field, and it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up 5-1 the field on the day.
Which means you can have a decent bet on a couple. My shortlist is Yanworth, Buveur D'Air and Petit Mouchoir in that order, and I really can't see anything outside of those three winning it. I've some on PM at 9-1 already ew so think I will be able to have a decent bet on both of the other two. |
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Favourite, second favourite and third favourite CCM? Exciting stuff ;-)
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4/1 winner is better than a 20/1 loser though!
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