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pollybournemouth
24 Oct 16 23:36
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Date Joined: 06 Feb 10
| Topic/replies: 494 | Blogger: pollybournemouth's blog
I just think this Horse is the best ive seen and deserves his name in lights before he wins the next three Gold cups

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Replies: 256
By:
cyclops
When: 24 Oct 16 23:55
An 11 year old winner......
That would break a few records as he completes his hat trick.
Good luck with him tomorrow.
I don't think any Stayers' hurdle winner has ever won a Gold Cup. Have any come close?
A very different discipline and he is, of course 8, which is another factor against, not that it stopped Coneygree.
But he does look to be a late developing freak and all things could be possible. I just think 6/1 is short enough for the Gold Cup. Even if he waltzes unblemished through three or four novice chases, the Gold Cup will be a completely different test.
Fascinating, though.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 25 Oct 16 11:25
Just having a bit of fun Mister C .We all have our Fav horses and Mister T did advise Taking Betfr*ds 20-1 before winning the World H for the 2017 Gold cup .. Mister T thinks he will win the Gold cup and that's enough for me
You are Correct about 6-1 Shocking Value
Have a lovely day Polly
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Oct 16 14:48
Hills go 6/4 about him winning by 10l or more today. Seems a good bet to me.
By:
duffy
When: 25 Oct 16 15:52
Listening to tizzard after the race I wouldn't be surprised if we don't hear talk about the KG, as daft as unlikely as that may seem.Shocked
By:
shockster
When: 25 Oct 16 16:13
Can't knock what he's done today and he did jump well.  However, he was under no pressure whatsoever and this showed little more than he can jump smoothly.

It will be a hell of a lot different when he takes on the big boys at Cheltenham and he may well be up to it, but I want to see him under pressure and do it first.  I won't be backing him at 5 or 6/1 to find out.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 25 Oct 16 16:50
Great for NH Racing
By:
Satrus_Froot
When: 25 Oct 16 16:57
Sure is pollybournemouth, really hope he makes it.

Good start today, couldn't have asked for anything else in those circumstances. Next time will be far more interesting though, I'd like to see him at Newbury for the Grade 2 novice chase but there's also the 3 mile race at the Open meeting.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 25 Oct 16 17:04
Cheltenham next :-)
By:
Jb23
When: 25 Oct 16 17:12
As impressive as he may have been, he won as he should have, 40lbs well in or whatever it was from their hurdling ratings. Like Shockster says, you can't knock it at all but there are much sterner tests to be had. Today was as much about making sure he still has 4 legs and a pulse rather than convincing myself he is a Gold Cup winner. And trimming him to 4-1!? I think I would rather take a bath with my toaster
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Oct 16 18:16
A confident chasing debut from a 'star' hurdler, and what a crisp and intelligent jumper for a novice! Let's hope he could repeat today against the seasoned chasers in the races to come prior to the Gold Cup. An exciting prospect but for the moment 5/1 is short enough after just one run over fences.
By:
cyclops
When: 26 Oct 16 09:20
He could not have done it better. Even at the few where he shortened, he was quick and efficient; spectacular at others.
Fantastic, but would still echo previous thoughts and those of others here regarding his GC price.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 26 Oct 16 11:20
Don't want to jump before the Cheltenham race but if things go really well the KG would be amazing
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 26 Oct 16 12:12
I've just had a small ew bet on him for the KG, of course the Feltham is the danger and what happens with Cue Card will probably make the yards mind up as to what race he goes for over Xmas but the 14/1 betfair sportsbook offer today is too big, especially as someone was asking for a bit at 9.2 on the exchange too Wink
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 26 Oct 16 12:15
Yes I agree and did the same Excited
By:
kevinglass
When: 26 Oct 16 14:15
That'll be the last time you do that......next time you try, max bet £1...
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 26 Oct 16 15:15
Yes I agree Kevin .Not used Be*fair in 5 years so I got away with it .PP Lad Boyle SJ Coral skybet wont give me one pound . William are kk at the moment and B 365
By:
wellchief
When: 28 Oct 16 22:07
He did jump very well, but that was to be expected when only really travelling at just over half speed.

I see no reason not to follow the Coneygree path of Feltham, Denman and then the Gold Cup, with one race between now and Boxing Day. 

Now he's had an easy race to start him off, they need to up the standard of opposition fairly quickly as he'll be taking on the best of the best in about 4 races time.

I agree 4/1 and 5/1 is a joke of a price, but I can understand why he is favourite, given his immense ability, we know he'll get the trip, he acts on the track - he just needs to conquer those 4 and a half foot fences!!
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 29 Oct 16 12:20
I think Mister T has it all worked out :-)
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 29 Oct 16 19:36
I loved the way he jumped a fence, it was effortless, made the correct shape and landed running. Cant wait for him to run again.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 29 Oct 16 20:09
I agree Ibrahima he is Very Very Special
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 06 Nov 16 20:07
Douvan now becomes the biggest danger to Thistlecrack as RR will want him in the Gold Cup
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Nov 16 20:49
I think it is unlikely Douvan would be rerouted to the Gold Cup next year given his number target has always been the Champion Chase as there is already a seasoned contender for that race in Djakadam, and very possibly Vroum Vroum Mag if Djakadam (comprehensively beaten by Cue Card at Liverpool) is deemed not a worthy challenging against the likes of Cue Card (again) and/or Thistlecrack. But who will bet against WPM/RR diverting Douvan here in 2018 though if Vroum Vroum Mag is proven no match next year?

However, in the unlikely event Douvan is running here then Djakadam will not but the Ryanair instead (25/1), an excellent  chance of a win too, if so, in my opinion.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 07 Nov 16 12:47
Hiya and point taken but RR doesn't believe Djakadam can win the Gold cup !
let me put it another way If he lets Douvan go to the King George
and he wins that he will run in the Gold cup
RR is now obsessed in the nicest way with winning the Gold Cup
and he already thinks Douvan can win one
Have a great week
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Nov 16 13:31
Assuming Douvan, Thistlecrack, Cue Card and Valseur Lido turn up for the King George IV Chase - it will be a race I'd look forward to with eagerness and pleasure - and whoever wins will no doubt be a short price 'fav' for the Cheltenham Gold and deservedly so. But I doubt the former given his possible stamina uncertainty and limitation despite his superiority over the others with the exception of Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase.

I think Vroum Vroum Mag would be given the chance prior as she has good solid form over fences already; WPM/RR have many bullets for the Mares/Champion/World Hurdle races, and the Ryanair Chase in Djakdam should they choose to do so.

As always this game is all about opinions and 2nd guessing the final decisions of connections, and if getting them correct financial reward could follow ultimately (hopefully).
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Nov 16 19:10
Will Thistlecrack win tomorrow? If so, by how many lengths or will the bubble be busted?
By:
kevinglass
When: 11 Nov 16 19:31
Win, lose or draw, he'll have had 7 opponents in his first 2 races, and one of them ran both times.....so no great tests so far.

If he wins he'll be pushed in to 3/1 top price for the Gold Cup.

If he goes to the Feltham on King George day, he'll face 3 more perhaps, if he wins that, it'll be 9/4.

If he takes on the King George, we'll really find out something.

If he ran in a match against Coneygree at Cheltenham, would he be the fav? So to me the antepost prices look ridiculous.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 11 Nov 16 21:44
Yes he will win
The point is when you bet on Thistlecrack you know the horse is ok when you do the same on Coneygree you have no idea---which is why the odds are like they are
I would see him 3-1 king George maybe shorter
7/4 Gold cup . IMHO he is a wonder horse
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 11 Nov 16 22:21
Just as a point of reference, Coneygree only took on a total of 10 runners in his first two chases and only another 5 when he moved into open company on his third start. He took on as many rivals in his Gold Cup as he had in his previous three chases starts put together.

Thistlecrack also has much more hurdles experience than Coneygree (more runs, bigger fields).

Admittedly this probably says more about Coneygree than Thistlecrack - i.e. that he's a freak - so my point is that I would n't be concerned if he ran in the Feltham as long as he has at least one run in open company before the Gold Cup.

Logically I thought the King George decision would revolve around whether Cue Card still looks like a potential King George winner again after the Betfair Chase but Tizzard seemed to suggest today that there was no reason why they could n't both run in the King George and they don't seem the type of outfit to shy away from a challenge (I'm not convinced that Cue Card really likes Kempton that much but that's another story).

Still a lot of water to go under the bridge before then, hopefully no accidents tomorrow and then we'll know a bit more after the Betfair Chase as well.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 11 Nov 16 22:56
For the record I believe mister T thinks Thistlecrack can win the King George and on that basis he will have a go
By:
jasey
When: 12 Nov 16 08:04
I am sceptical about him being as good a chaser but my god i find the Thistlecrack story fascinating.I think ReaseHeath is right Cue Card holds the the key to where Thistlecrack runs boximg day.Hopefully it is the KG.
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 12 Nov 16 09:49
As the pundits would say Today will tell us a lot :-)
By:
duffy
When: 12 Nov 16 13:25
Wouldn't fancy him in a bigger field against more experienced horses, looks like they'd have to try and make the running with him to keep him out of trouble, those ballooning jumps in the middle of the pack would cost him dearly.
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Nov 16 13:27
I'd be absolutely amazed if Thistlecrack goes for the Gold Cup this year after that display!!!!
By:
pollybournemouth
When: 12 Nov 16 17:30
Duffy/ Impossible -The likes of you two are why nearly every real horseracing fan has left this forum / Shocking horse .. Cant jump .. only scrapped home ....didn't stay .Mister T would be better off retiring it .
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Nov 16 18:36
pollybournemouth,

I am sorry you harbour that thought but I am being realistic.

Thistlecrack is an 8yr old out and out novice chaser; he is also entering the chasing game quite late - he will be 9yrs old come the Cheltenham Festival. I just cannot see him winning the Gold Cup in 2017 as he needs much more experienced as today's display shows. However, he could be a serious contender come 2018/19, if staying sound.
By:
Graeme83
When: 12 Nov 16 19:46
They're entitled to their opinion, Polly. You said yourself today today would tell us alot. Annoyed because you can't lay at a shorter price ?
By:
wellchief
When: 13 Nov 16 09:45
After yesterday, it further emphasises my view that Coneygree is definitely the one to beat in the Gold Cup.  I backed him the other day to remain unbeaten this season at 66/1 after the sad news of Vautour, but that price is now 40's.  He has question marks over his injury recovery and will it be soft on the day, but if it is yes and yes, I think he is the standout horse in the field.

If Thistlecrack was going for the RSA this year, you'd say he is right on track, and he's where he needs to be at this stage of his career.  He made novicey mistakes, but you'd expect that, and he'll gradually improve with each run.  Alpha Des Obeaux hasn't been foot perfect this year, but he is being kept in novice company and having plenty of runs to learn the game against oppostion that isn't going to be too testing. 

However, the trouble with going the Gold Cup so soon, after so few runs, is that you don't really have time to gradually improve - you need to be bloody good almost instantly.  It's crystal clear he has a huge engine, but I think they need to up the standard of his oppositon pretty sharpish to see where they stand.  If he's not 100% comfortable over fences, the World Hurdle field looks p!ss poor and would be a penalty kick for him.

If he were mine, I'd focus on the RSA this year, and Gold Cup next.  I know he's a little old, but he's very lightly raced, and Cue Card showed last year that a 10 yo can be in the form of their life, and Cue Card had been racing at the festival since he was 4.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Nov 16 11:40
In his next race if Thistlecrack was allowed to make the running to ensure a pace that suited him (if necessary) and, if he still showed signs of novicey, I sincerely hoped he would either revert back to hurdles and/or begin his task of attempting to win the Gold Cup by running in races designed for novices eg RSA, JLT, etc.

I just cannot bear to see him injured as a result as he is too good a horse to be rushed and risked unnecessary and I am sure connections would have that at the fore front of their minds - it just does not have to be next year.
By:
joevalue147
When: 14 Nov 16 00:38
He is a fair enough price when you think of the engine he has and he jumps brilliant most of the time. Fair enough he's a bit brave but he showed at the water jump he can dance aswell. A few more races will reveal a lot more obviously but there is absolutely no reason to go off the Gold cup trail as things stand. If he jumps around Newbury like he did around Chepstow what price should he be?? He's an absolute machine that stays forver and has a lethal change of gear. It's a pity people like to pick holes at this stage after only 2 mistakes in two races. If he gets there safe and sound he'll be a 5/4 shot providing everything goes to plan from now on. Cant wait for Newbury. A real jumping test. Colin might actually school him between races this time.
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