Cheltenham Festival
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THISTLECRACK
THISTLECRACK
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Thistlecrack will toy with the GC field (exception of Don Cossack) if he can replicate his KG jumping at Cheltenham in March.
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The posts crabbing the proximity of the others in the King George are utter b0llocks.
Halfway between the last fence and the line Scudamore was punching the air celebrating with one hand on the reins. He never touched the horse with the whip in the whole race. Anyone who thinks he couldn't have won by plenty more than he did needs their head read. |
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well said Roger,Spot on!
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Correct roger, only a fool would measure the proximity of the others or claim cue card ran below par.
Thistlecrack toyed with them, could had won by a distance if he wanted too. |
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No need to be so touchy.
 Interesting that in all the post race analysis in the racing media pretty much everyone agrees that while Thistkecrack is a fabulous horse he is not a viable bet for the Gold Cup at anything like his current price. Lydia Hislop sums it up quite nicely in her latest Cheltenham blog: 'My instinct is therefore that the winner was very impressive in not beating much. That isn't to denigrate his achievement at all but merely to observe that the Gold Cup should be a much deeper, less straightforward race.' The fences and the extra distance are probably more dangerous than any of his actual rivals. |
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Either Cue Card ran below par or Conti and T42 ran 20lbs+ improvement on their last run/current mark. Cue Card is a 2 stone better horse than those two, so how he beat them a short head off levels says it is one of the two things above.
I know Cue Card would have suffered for taking Thislecrack on, but the distances of short head, head and a couple of lengths between the beaten horses does not stack up to me. It is true that if you take Cue Card out of the equation, Thistlecrack didn't beat anything - even if he had beaten Conti, T42 and Josses Hill by 20+ lengths - Conti's OR has been sliding downwards over the past couple of years, T42 has been well held in Grade 2 and 3 races off 153 and Josses Hill has been a very inconsistent runner. If Thistlecrack would have beaten Cue Card by a head, but those two were miles ahead of the others, I would have said the race is a more reliable guide. I don't mean to belittle Thistlecrack, he will go down in history as one of the best King George winners as he was a novice being eased a fence from home, but he is now an odds on novice in a Gold Cup three months before the race - you have to pick holes in that somewhere surely. Kempton form doesn't always translate into Cheltenham form - and as this is a Cheltenham forum, I am looking at this through Gold Cup eyes. Thistlecrack may improve again at Cheltenham, I don't know, but I'm not taking an odds on price to find out. Everyone reads these things differently, and I think it's obvious the winning margin could have been well bigger. |
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There is only one winner in my eyes at the moment
Roll up Native River A stayer who can carry weight Gets the trip and can take them along at a good clip The irish have nothing this year, last years winner has had a serious injury and we are still waiting to see and the other one should have won that lexus in my eyes to have had any chance this year. Imho there is only 2 viable betting options at this stage in this years gold cup, one is odds on and the other at the moment is 8/1 both from the same stable is the only coincidence |
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You say "There is only one winner in your eyes" Are you Special needs or what problem do you have ,,No please don't answer just get help
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I'm not sure how you get that i am crazy for thinking of him as the winner more than Thistlecrack. I certainly saw the for-sight to back Thistle for the KG at 14s, did you
 When i watch Native River i see Coneygree when he won the CGC and get reminded of Synchronised god rest his soul. I think winning a Welsh National the way he did off top weight bodes very well for a CGC You can get 2/1 a place as opposed to 4/5 a win plus you can be certain the books will want to get the fav in the satchels on the day both in the morning and on the track so i can see his price getting bigger nearer the time and on the day. |
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At odds on just against (now) I'd not back Thistlecrack even though it is the best horse in the field and certainly not on race day when he'd most likely be odds-on...because he is still a novice, after all. Also, the field will undoubtedly be larger than the four he faced in the King George; the bet-without-Thistlecrack and/or place bets for the others are better betting proposition than just backing Thistlecrack to win.
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seathestars If you said Native River was a good outside Bet I would agree but he would be the number two in the stable ( who are going for the Gold Cup )by a long way !!
Yes I took 14-1 on Sportsbook for the KG 20-1 for the Gold cup ( Betfr+d before he ran in the world hurdle ) And I'm taking 2-1 for this years KG People will laugh at that but its better rates than the bank give me ! Its trendy for people to knock these days For most now its only about money Sportsmanship is dead I didn't realise until I found out Hansie the SA cricket captain was bent ! then so many followed !! Greed !! Sorry I was rude before |
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Well for those that know me I never just back one in a race at the fez. I treat the fez as my bank roll for my summer holidays each year. I study the markets from October onwards as earlier they are just too cloudy and I try to reverse what a bookmaker is trying to do in that I back the main protagonists at miles under 100% under-rounds!
At this moment in time I can only see 2 genuine runners in the cgc. Whether they will be my only two bets in the race I don't know as it's too early to say. I am very confident I will be able to get odds against thistlecrack either the weeks leading up to the race or morning of u am waiting for that. If I back him it will put me on 45% if I get 5/4 making the book around 63%. For those who crab my method I have been doing it the last 8 years with last festival being my most profitable yet and a trip to St Helens Tasmania and sydney followed! GL whatever your method  By the way, no hard feelings!! |
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Well done hope we speak again #KeepWinning
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We still talking bollox when a few questioned the King George?
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Told ya - just praying that Many Clouds is ok.
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Don't like it up him does he
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Ghastly news.
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rip many clouds .............brave warrior ,i salute you
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awful
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Very sad about Many Clouds, proper warrior.
Thistlecrack to be fair showed great guts battling back up the hill, showing he can find well off the bridle. The extra 2f would worry me for the Gold Cup if I was a backer - he was just beaten today by a seasoned professional in Many Clouds. His engine and attitude isn't under any question, it's his jumping. When he was at Kempton he met every one spot on, but as soon as he makes a mistake, his confidence seems to go imv. Still rightly favourite, but makes the Gold Cup a lot more interesting. |
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yes some who may have thought the gold cup was a done deal may now feel different and have a go ,still going to take a big performance to match thistlecrack and todays battle expierience can only be a help to him,but the unbeatable aura has slightly lifted .
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The concerning thing is that coming to the last he was appearing to be travelling well...but got beat, it raises the question as to what he finds when put under pressure and you have to assume that the GC will be all the more grueling as well as further.
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A sad, sad end for Many Clouds, a game and absolutely fighter to the end. RIP!
Thistlecrack will be running on fumes after the last fence if the going on Gold Cup day is similar to today; the KG over-ran ie Cue Card, given today's condition will be in his element assisted by the several known front-runners. Any chance of him rerouted back to the Stayers? |
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Was that tongue in cheek?
 Despite the question marks raised today I'd have thought there is zero chance of running anywhere other than the GC. |
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Apart from one I did not notice his jumping was in question nor reason for his defeat today - it was the extra distance and uphill finish - Thistlecrack was running on fumes despite looking the more likely winner of the two up the hill.
The chink in Thistlecrack's armour has been identified thus will be exploited come Gold Cup day, I have no doubt. |
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He made a few errors. He over jumps at times and loses momentum as his back end tries to overtake the
front. I didn't think Tom Scu covered himself in glory and not sure why he didn't try and kick on but sat and waited. It wasn't that bad a performance but a very sad race in the end and I thought he stayed absolutely fine. He nedds to use his mid race pace to better effect next time imo. Maybe should do a Denman on them  |
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He was going the best before and after the last fence and I think the extra 1.5f plus the uphill finish that did him today. And with the Gold Cup being an extra 1f, I'd not take 3/1 about him.
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Alarm bells should be ringing today for all the people that have backed him or intend to back him
Looked like he found hardly anything off the bridal and was beat by many clouds (rip) a Grade 2 horse.It is also madness to blame the jockey or the ground. A better hurdler than a chaser me thinks.Everytime I see him run I think to myself this horse can't win a Gold Cup,5/2 is still a crazy price imo.Native River Should be fav he does everything that Thistlecrack doesn't. |
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Looked to me like Thistlecrack was going well within himself because Tom Scu did not want to leave the Gold Cup behind today -- until the end of the race when Many Clouds came back at him. I'd not be tearing up my antepost slip just yet.
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Get a jockey that can actually settle him and he'll win. If they work on settling him in the next weeks and Scudamore works at it, he'll still win. He's the best horse in the race by so far its funny.
Walsh or Russell would win the Gold Cup on him. |
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Still wins the Gold Cup, not like he was peaked for the day, either. Settles a bit better and he definitely wins.
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even though native river seems made for the gold cup, as he's a solid jumper who just finds and finds, I have a theory he's better on flat tracks.
All his best performances have been at places like kempton, newbury and chepstow. he's 0/3 at cheltenham and although you could certainly make a case that his form has gone to a different level this year, he doesn't seem a value bet at 4-1 I thought thistlecrack jumped well in the main although if he has shown any vulnerability in his races this year it's on the stamina issue. with better ground though I think he's still the one to beat at cheltenham |
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Wouldn't blame the jockey at all, it was the same jockey that had many on here proclaiming after Kempton that the horse was one of the "greats" top 10 of all time etc etc, well at least we're back down to earth a bit on that score.
It would have been more comforting to his fans if he'd had been under pressure from further out and only just got beat, because it would put to bed that he found under pressure and even offset the staying question a bit. However it is always a worry when you have a horse travelling noticeably better than the other horse at the last only, for whatever reason to find little on the run to the line. The GC will be harder still with a host of bold jumping front runners all of whom having shown their wellbeing recently prepared to serve it up to him, he'll have to jump, stay and dig to win and he has question marks on all three counts. |
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Will take a while to recover from yesterday's effort. Obviously stays fine, but could have left the Gold Cup there.
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Don't think his current price accurately takes into account yesterdays race.
No way am I backing him. Bubble burst. Many clouds(bless him)should be getting beat by a Gold Cup shortie. |
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Didn't jump anywhere near well enough for me and that's what ultimately cost him the race.
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Yeh,maybe he needs to have things his own way up front(King George)but not sure he will get that in the Gold Cup,and after yesterday others that may have avoided the race will now be having a re-think I would imagine.Plus would they front run if they have any doubts about the extra distance of the Gold Cup?
He still could win, after all hes still learning and has lots of ability,but he is now proved to be beatable. I for one will definitely be looking elsewhere,especially at the prices. |
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Worth pointing out that the first two were 17L ahead of Smad Place who in turn was 27L ahead of the rest.
It's not bad form but a worry for backers that he got out battled when looking like the winner I reckon if he could run it again Scu would have kicked on after 3 out rather than sit & wait and the plan in the Gold cup will be to try & put some distance between his nag & the rest coming down the hill. Whether he can jump well enough to do it is the question. I wouldn't worry much about stamina just the jumping. |
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So if you worry about the jumping.....is he value??
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