Cheltenham Festival
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THISTLECRACK
THISTLECRACK
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Though he is not my idea of a gold cup winner, I thought he ran a good race yesterday and was just out worried by a more street wise and experienced horse. More to the point, it's only for weeks since Tizzard had him primed for the King George or Feltham, so it should be no surprise to see him beaten yesterday. He's got 6-7 weeks to peak him again, but I fear he could be another One Man.
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pre race interview on itv 4 tizzard notably so , very quiet ,said he was a bit nervous , possible (understandably so ) thistle undercooked ,or doubts about the trip if it turned into a battle ,
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Can't see the One Man comparison playing up but possible over the extra furlong I suppose.
One was weird tho as he went from looking imperious to just emptying within in a few strides. |
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I think he will be a stone better come March ,and have little doubt now that he will win the Gold Cup.
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I fear he could be another One Man.
The horses are poles apart. One Man(I have a huge drawing of him winning the QM in the hall  ) was the finest travelling horse you will ever see in the Gold Cup , but as we now he stopped to nothing.Thistlecrack was beaten in a photo finish by a superb jumper of fences. Nothing will get close to him come March. |
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The relevant horse to compare him to is Florida Pearl as stated earlier in the thread.
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Both wrong. The horse to compare him with is Kauto Star: clearly the best but operating at the outer limit of his stamina, and fencing not cast-iron.
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If he repeats that yesterday,plenty will come close and some will beat him.
Getting beat by Many Clouds simply is not Gold Cup winning form. |
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Kauto Sta.Ramaruna I take that as a joke.
Thistlecrack should be giving Many Clouds weight and a beating. Smad place got smashed in the King George by 17 lengths and the Gold Cup by 38 when in better form. |
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Kauto Star was an excellent jumper.
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Well its a matter of opinions.
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Agree with budd, if you had told people today's result immediately after crossing the line in the KG you'd have been laughed at. Back then those that questioned the KG form were ridiculed and accused that excuses were being made to devalue the performance, fast forward 4 weeks and the same people are having to make their own excuses to defend yesterday's performance, you can't have it both ways.
If you want to give it the "hail the conquering hero" you have to accept the questions when it goes wrong. |
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anyone putting his defeat down to the ground at all? i didn't think he was that fluent out of that glue pot...i have to say i wasn't as disappointed as many others with how he performed, although i thought smad place never travelled in the race..he got an education in behind and must have some engine considering his jumping wasn't that quick
i suppose some were thinking he would improved more than he did but how good was his form going into the race from a handicapping point of view, i had him capped at 170 pre race unlike the racing post who had him at 178 |
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Ground, settling better, jumping better, improvements in the above by 5 or 10% will see him home in this. Many Clouds clearly outdid himself, the effort he exerted was unreal. He'll still win the Gold Cup for me, he is by far the best horse. This is the first time since the novice hurdle at Punchestown he has had to battle, it won't be lost on him.
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Remember Kauto star and L'Ami in the Newbury trial a month before, that could've gone any old way. We shouldn't let results completely dictate the analysis here. Could've been different and people would then be saying that we found out he could battle. It's a very very poor Gold Cup.
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Kauto gave L'ami 10 pounds that day m8
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Apologies, that is very relevant.
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I ask a simple question and its not meant to be in bad taste but had Many Clouds been fine after the race on saturday owuld he be vying for favouritism for the Gold Cup as surely the extra furlong was gonna suit him even more. Yes the ground may have been quicker but it would have relatively in terms of race time been a similar test of stamina especially as very likely to be strongly run.
I ask this because surely now others can see Thistlecrack can get beat and can get outstayed. Yes he deserves to be fav but 2/1 and under? Surely they will turn up and make it a decent size field and take their chance now. |
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@racingguru MC would be vying for 2nd Fav @ 5/1 with Native River and Thistlecrack pushed out to 5/2 or so by the bookies. imo.
The way i see it MC ran the best race of his life, with everything going perfectly, so there would have been a doubt on whether he could have produced a run like that again. Sadly we won't get to see.  Thistlecrack was still traveling like the winner going down to the last but just got outstayed. No excuses on the day. His jumping is just too erratic to back him with any great confidence. Expect he'll closer to 3/1 on the day. GL |
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swap thistlecrack for any of the other contenders and people would be laughing about their chances of winning a gold cup after being beaten by many clouds even though he was a very decent horse
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Two questions could legitimately have been asked about Thistlecrack before Saturday, (other than "does he stay?" which some may still consider unanswered).
What does he find off the bridle? What will happen when he's up against a top class horse? The answer to the first was not a great deal. The second, which is perfectly legitimate if you accept that Cue Card did not perform to his usual level at Kempton, was perhaps more revelatory. He has never yet, over hurdles or fences, come up against a true Grade One opponent. He's had a wonderful, but extremely easy, ride. And, with all due respect to Many Clouds, he still has not encountered a top class horse. The issue, though, in assessing his Gold Cup chances, is whether this year's winner will need to be top class. It looks as weak a field we've seen for a while. With Cue Card quite possibly in decline, Djakadam is the only proven, top class, staying chaser, but even he has failed to convince in any of his outings since last year's Gold Cup. Thistlecrack is eminently beatable, but by whom? |
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Most probably by Cue Card, if there's give in the ground. The evidence of him being in decline is insufficient. The way the King George was run didn't suit him in this instance. He's shown amazing strength and ability in the past to bounce back. The long break could work for him. Thistlecrack had a very hard race on Saturday. It remains to be seen how this might affect him next time. Cue Card pretty much guarantees to be there with at least a shout, 2 fences from home. I know which I'd prefer to be on, in a battle after the last. I have backed both in all sorts of multiples.
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I think Cue Card's going to run in the Ascot Chase before the Gold Cup this year though? Saw quotes from his owner to the effect that they thought the break was too long last year.
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cyclops 30 Jan 17 12:23 Joined: 11 Apr 02 | Topic/replies: 642 | Blogger: cyclops's blog Two questions could legitimately have been asked about Thistlecrack before Saturday, (other than "does he stay?" which some may still consider unanswered). What does he find off the bridle? What will happen when he's up against a top class horse? The answer to the first was not a great deal. The second, which is perfectly legitimate if you accept that Cue Card did not perform to his usual level at Kempton, was perhaps more revelatory. He has never yet, over hurdles or fences, come up against a true Grade One opponent. He's had a wonderful, but extremely easy, ride. And, with all due respect to Many Clouds, he still has not encountered a top class horse. Cylops, you need to watch the race again m8. Also is Thistlecrack top class horse inn your opinion? |
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I think he is. But I still believe he has that to prove over fences.
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Agreed but to be fair to the horse he did win a king george on his 4th start over fences as a novice! Many Clouds is undoubtedly a top class horse also, he must be if he beat another on Saturday not to mention winning a grand national off a mark of 160!!
To me.. looking at the race Scudamore was holding onto Thistlecrack as long as he dared knowing he was going to battle it out up the run in with a proven stayer. Do i think Thistlecrack came there swinging on the bridle? not a chance! Scudamore imo knew there wasnt a whole lot of petrol left in the tank going to the last, Thistlecrack went into the last about a length up, ran down the fence and came away from it nearly a length down, battled back to half a length up and was reeled back in and outstayed going to the line. The horse found plenty imo, both of them did. Do i think Thistlecrack would win a soft ground gold cup? maybe! would he win it on good decent ground? probably! would i be confident of him staying the gold cup trip on either?.....No! |
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Don't disagree with much of that. However, Scudamore didn't go for his whip until halfway up the run-in. When he then gave him five cracks, there was no response.
No criticism there, but it does perhaps revise the view of Thistlecrack that he could have doubled or trebled some of his winning margins. He simply gives it all on the bridle. As ever, these things are subjective and your opinion of Saturday's race depends really on whether you believe Many Clouds ran very much a career best. As someone else said, would he now be short in the betting for the Gold Cup if he'd survived? |
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the defeat means that we should have a 14+ runner gold cup ,with a few who perhaps had other targets now fancying their chances of at least a place ,did he stay ? well he was only beaten a head by a seasoned battler , what it has shown is that he can be outbattled ,of course he may have been undercooked but the winner had the national as his target so not hard to assume he had something left to work on .
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thistlecrack got beat by a horse who when in the form of his life got beat over 20l in a gold cup,who i dont recall ever running close in a grade 1 race,we could do with thistlecrack winning the gold cup has racing has lost a few stars this season but it doesnt look good
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Agree Foyles, every top staying handicap chaser should be running in it.
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what i am getting at is pre cottswold chase some connections may have been considering giving the race a miss beleiving that they were running for a place at the very best and some would have been ridden to pick up the pieces , a different ball game now and more will be put into the race more prominently knowing the fav has chinks in his armour !
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Think they'll all be lining up now Foyle, Bristol de Mai, Champagne West et all, which all look in the frame now. I worry for Roger the Butler and his big treble, I hope it still comes off for him. You need your boch to work his magic on some of the opposition!
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The ground was given as soft but looked very sticky - Cheltenham can ride dead sometimes and horses fail to quicken in their usual manner. On Saturday most of the winners were up on the pace (or making it) and nothing could make up ground.
IMO Thistlecrack looked the likely winner after the last but landed a bit flat and was asked to quicken.. Unfortunately Many Clouds is a horse that has always looked like it loves a soft ground slog and simply outstayed him up the hill (and only just). The rest of the field was smashed. You can certainly pick holes in the KG form but even so on this seasons form Thistlecrack is the clear favourite... Talk of Bristol De Mai (who would have loved the ground as well at the weekend March not so much), Champagne West (can't jump fences and got away with it on a soft jumping track), BLacklion (a lovely trier but not classy enough) etc etc looks like people desperate for the Fav to get beat to prove them right. |
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Given the fair bit of negativity about the performance you'd think they'd be more layers of Thistle. 9/4 - 7/4 after race on here seems to say the backers are talking with their wallets.
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Well we can dress it up any way we want.
Fact is on his Kempton run - 3m flat track - hes a short priced fav for the Gold Cup. On his Cheltenham run-3m 1f undulating track uphill finish - he is not. Kempton and Cheltenham chases are chalk and cheese. I dunno what horse will turn up in March,the one that jumped for fun at Kempton or the one that did not at Cheltenham. What I do know is the current price does not appeal for me with the unknown. |
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"Given the fair bit of negativity about the performance you'd think there would be more layers of Thistle. 9/4 - 7/4 after the race on here seems to say the backers are talking with their wallets."
Fair point...but why would layers push out his price if there are willing backers at a shorter one? Those who had already laid Thistle at 2/1 or less are sitting pretty comfortable post the Cotswold Chase; come Gold Cup day should the Cotswold conditions prevail I'd be very surprised if the betting market does not act accordingly ie push Thistle out to 7/2 or 4/1 - Thistle can be beaten especially at Cheltenham! Horse racing is mainly about one's perception of the merit and performance of a horse given conditions; one must not fall in love with a horse (if punting). |
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I can see him going off close to odds on,some pretty good judges are saying it was a performance that enhanced his reputation.
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personally I would say those pretty good judges are in fact not pretty good judges, if that's what they are saying.
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Looking at Many Clouds form, I see that in his build up to the Gold Cup when he was fancied by connections and some punters,he beat Houblon Des Obeaux 3 and a quarter lengths receiving 6lb in the Hennessey,and then beat Smad Place 1 and a quarter lengths giving him 8lb, not really the form of a horse that should be beating a Gold Cup short priced fav.
He also got beat by Don Poli 4 lengths giving him 5lb,and Don Poli is a proven not Gold Cup horse. Seems to me with Thistlecrack, we are seeing people wanting to believe what they want to believe they saw, rather than what actually they did see!! |