THISTLECRACK

Yeh,maybe he needs to have things his own way up front(King George)but not sure he will get that in the Gold Cup,and after yesterday others that may have avoided the race will now be having a re-think I would imagine.Plus would they front run if they have any doubts about the extra distance of the Gold Cup?
He still could win, after all hes still learning and has lots of ability,but he is now proved to be beatable.
I for one will definitely be looking elsewhere,especially at the prices.

Worth pointing out that the first two were 17L ahead of Smad Place who in turn was 27L ahead of the rest.
It's not bad form but a worry for backers that he got out battled when looking like the winner
I reckon if he could run it again Scu would have kicked on after 3 out rather than sit & wait and the plan in the Gold cup will be to try & put some distance between his nag & the rest coming down the hill.
Whether he can jump well enough to do it is the question.
I wouldn't worry much about stamina just the jumping.

So if you worry about the jumping.....is he value??

Though he is not my idea of a gold cup winner, I thought he ran a good race yesterday and was just out worried by a more street wise and experienced horse. More to the point, it's only for weeks since Tizzard had him primed for the King George or Feltham, so it should be no surprise to see him beaten yesterday. He's got 6-7 weeks to peak him again, but I fear he could be another One Man.

pre race interview on itv 4 tizzard notably so , very quiet ,said he was  a bit nervous , possible (understandably so ) thistle undercooked ,or doubts about the trip if it turned into a battle ,

Can't see the One Man comparison playing up but possible over the extra furlong I suppose.
One was weird tho as he went from looking imperious to just emptying within in a few strides.

I think he will be a stone better come March ,and have little doubt now that he will win the Gold Cup.

I fear he could be another One Man.

The horses are poles apart.
One Man(I have a huge drawing of him winning the QM in the hall ) was the finest travelling horse you will ever see in the Gold Cup , but as we now he stopped to nothing.
Thistlecrack was beaten in a photo finish by a superb jumper of fences.
Nothing will get close to him come March.

The relevant horse to compare him to is Florida Pearl as stated earlier in the thread.

Both wrong. The horse to compare him with is Kauto Star: clearly the best but operating at the outer limit of his stamina, and fencing not cast-iron.

If he repeats that yesterday,plenty will come close and some will beat him.
Getting beat by Many Clouds simply is not Gold Cup winning form.

Kauto Sta.Ramaruna I take that as a joke.
Thistlecrack should be giving Many Clouds weight and a beating.
Smad place got smashed in the King George by 17 lengths and the Gold Cup by 38 when in better form.

Kauto Star was an excellent jumper.

Jan 29, 2017 -- 7:56AM, buddeliea wrote:

If he repeats that yesterday,plenty will come close and some will beat him.Getting beat by Many Clouds simply is not Gold Cup winning form.

Can't agree with that. Many Clouds has been a different horse this season after his wind op, no shame getting beat a head by him yesterday (I'd have expected MC's rating to rise above 166 to around 170). Smad Place is rated 166 and they stuffed him by 17 lengths, for me the race is the best bit of gold cup form around this season.

Well its a matter of opinions.

Agree with budd, if you had told people today's result immediately after crossing the line in the KG you'd have been laughed at. Back then those that questioned the KG form were ridiculed and accused that excuses were being made to devalue the performance, fast forward 4 weeks and the same people are having to make their own excuses to defend yesterday's performance, you can't have it both ways.

If you want to give it the "hail the conquering hero" you have to accept the questions when it goes wrong.

anyone putting his defeat down to the ground at all? i didn't think he was that fluent out of that glue pot...i have to say i wasn't as disappointed as many others with how he performed, although i thought smad place never travelled in the race..he got an education in behind and must have some engine considering his jumping wasn't that quick

i suppose some were thinking he would improved more than he did but how good was his form going into the race from a handicapping point of view, i had him capped at 170 pre race unlike the racing post who had him at 178

Ground, settling better, jumping better, improvements in the above by 5 or 10% will see him home in this. Many Clouds clearly outdid himself, the effort he exerted was unreal. He'll still win the Gold Cup for me, he is by far the best horse. This is the first time since the novice hurdle at Punchestown he has had to battle, it won't be lost on him.

Remember Kauto star and L'Ami in the Newbury trial a month before, that could've gone any old way. We shouldn't let results completely dictate the analysis here. Could've been different and people would then be saying that we found out he could battle. It's a very very poor Gold Cup.

Kauto gave L'ami 10 pounds that day m8

Apologies, that is very relevant.

I ask a simple question and its not meant to be in bad taste but had Many Clouds been fine after the race on saturday owuld he be vying for favouritism for the Gold Cup as surely the extra furlong was gonna suit him even more. Yes the ground may have been quicker but it would have relatively in terms of race time been a similar test of stamina especially as very likely to be strongly run.

I ask this because surely now others can see Thistlecrack can get beat and can get outstayed. Yes he deserves to be fav but 2/1 and under? Surely they will  turn up and make it a decent size field and take their chance now.

@racingguru MC would be vying for 2nd Fav @ 5/1 with Native River and Thistlecrack pushed out to 5/2 or so by the bookies. imo.

The way i see it MC ran the best race of his life, with everything going perfectly, so there would have been a doubt on whether he could have produced a run like that again. Sadly we won't get to see.

Thistlecrack was still traveling like the winner going down to the last but just got outstayed. No excuses on the day. His jumping is just too erratic to back him  with any great confidence. Expect he'll closer to 3/1 on the day. GL

swap thistlecrack for any of the other contenders and people would be laughing about their chances of winning a gold cup after being beaten by many clouds even though he was a very decent horse

Two questions could legitimately have been asked about Thistlecrack before Saturday, (other than "does he stay?" which some may still consider unanswered).

What does he find off the bridle?
What will happen when he's up against a top class horse?

The answer to the first was not a great deal. The second, which is perfectly legitimate if you accept that Cue Card did not perform to his usual level at Kempton, was perhaps more revelatory. He has never yet, over hurdles or fences, come up against a true Grade One opponent. He's had a wonderful, but extremely easy, ride. And, with all due respect to Many Clouds, he still has not encountered a top class horse.

The issue, though, in assessing his Gold Cup chances, is whether this year's winner will need to be top class. It looks as weak a field we've seen for a while. With Cue Card quite possibly in decline, Djakadam is the only proven, top class, staying chaser, but even he has failed to convince in any of his outings since last year's Gold Cup.

Thistlecrack is eminently beatable, but by whom?

Most probably by Cue Card, if there's give in the ground. The evidence of him being in decline is insufficient. The way the King George was run didn't suit him in this instance. He's shown amazing strength and ability in the past to bounce back. The long break could work for him. Thistlecrack had a very hard race on Saturday. It remains to be seen how this might affect him next time. Cue Card pretty much guarantees to be there with at least a shout, 2 fences from home. I know which I'd prefer to be on, in a battle after the last. I have backed both in all sorts of multiples.

I think Cue Card's going to run in the Ascot Chase before the Gold Cup this year though? Saw quotes from his owner to the effect that they thought the break was too long last year.

cyclops
30 Jan 17 12:23
Joined: 11 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 642 | Blogger: cyclops's blog
Two questions could legitimately have been asked about Thistlecrack before Saturday, (other than "does he stay?" which some may still consider unanswered).

What does he find off the bridle?
What will happen when he's up against a top class horse?

The answer to the first was not a great deal. The second, which is perfectly legitimate if you accept that Cue Card did not perform to his usual level at Kempton, was perhaps more revelatory. He has never yet, over hurdles or fences, come up against a true Grade One opponent. He's had a wonderful, but extremely easy, ride. And, with all due respect to Many Clouds, he still has not encountered a top class horse.

Cylops, you need to watch the race again m8. Also is Thistlecrack  top class horse inn your opinion?

I think he is. But I still believe he has that to prove over fences.

Agreed but to be fair to the horse he did win a king george on his 4th start over fences as a novice! Many Clouds is undoubtedly a top class horse also, he must be if he beat another on Saturday not to mention winning a grand national off a mark of 160!!

To me.. looking at the race Scudamore was holding onto Thistlecrack as long as he dared knowing he was going to battle it out up the run in with a proven stayer. Do i think Thistlecrack came there swinging on the bridle? not a chance! Scudamore imo knew there wasnt a whole lot of petrol left in the tank going to the last, Thistlecrack went into the last about a length up, ran down the fence and came away from it nearly a length down, battled back to half a length up and was reeled back in and outstayed going to the line. The horse found plenty imo, both of them did. Do i think Thistlecrack would win a soft ground gold cup? maybe! would he win it on good decent ground? probably! would i be confident of him staying the gold cup trip on either?.....No!

Don't disagree with much of that. However, Scudamore didn't go for his whip until halfway up the run-in. When he then gave him five cracks, there was no response.

No criticism there, but it does perhaps revise the view of Thistlecrack that he could have doubled or trebled some of his winning margins. He simply gives it all on the bridle.

As ever, these things are subjective and your opinion of Saturday's race depends really on whether you believe Many Clouds ran very much a career best. As someone else said, would he now be short in the betting for the Gold Cup if he'd survived?

the defeat means that we should have a 14+ runner gold cup ,with a few who perhaps had other targets  now fancying their chances of at least a place ,did he stay ? well he was only beaten a head by a seasoned battler ,  what it has shown is that he can be outbattled ,of course he may have been undercooked but the winner had the national as his target so not hard to assume he had something left to work on .

thistlecrack got beat by a horse who when in the form of his life got beat over 20l in a gold cup,who i dont recall ever running close in a grade 1 race,we could do with thistlecrack winning the gold cup has racing has lost a few stars this season but it doesnt look good

Agree Foyles, every top staying handicap chaser should be running in it.

what i am getting at is pre cottswold chase some connections  may have been considering giving the race a miss beleiving that they were running for a place  at the very best and some would have been ridden to pick up the pieces , a different ball game now and more will be put into the race more prominently knowing the fav has chinks in his armour !

Think they'll all be lining up now Foyle, Bristol de Mai, Champagne West et all, which all look in the frame now. I worry for Roger the Butler and his big treble, I hope it still comes off for him. You need your boch to work his magic on some of the opposition!

The ground was given as soft but looked very sticky - Cheltenham can ride dead sometimes and horses fail to quicken in their usual manner.  On Saturday most of the winners were up on the pace (or making it) and nothing could make up ground. 

IMO Thistlecrack looked the likely winner after the last but landed a bit flat and was asked to quicken.. Unfortunately Many Clouds is a horse that has always looked like it loves a soft ground slog and simply outstayed him up the hill (and only just).  The rest of the field was smashed.

You can certainly pick holes in the KG form but even so on this seasons form Thistlecrack is the clear favourite... Talk of Bristol De Mai (who would have loved the ground as well at the weekend March not so much), Champagne West (can't jump fences and got away with it on a soft jumping track), BLacklion (a lovely trier but not classy enough) etc etc  looks like people desperate for the Fav to get beat to prove them right.

Given the fair bit of negativity about the performance you'd think they'd be more layers of Thistle. 9/4 - 7/4 after race on here seems to say the backers are talking with their wallets.

Well we can dress it up any way we want.
Fact is on his Kempton run - 3m flat track - hes a short priced fav for the Gold Cup.
On his Cheltenham run-3m 1f undulating track uphill finish - he is not.
Kempton and Cheltenham chases are chalk and cheese.
I dunno what horse will turn up in March,the one that jumped for fun at Kempton or the one that did not at Cheltenham.
What I do know is the current price does not appeal for me with the unknown.

"Given the fair bit of negativity about the performance you'd think there would be more layers of Thistle. 9/4 - 7/4 after the race on here seems to say the backers are talking with their wallets."

Fair point...but why would layers push out his price if there are willing backers at a shorter one? Those who had already laid Thistle at 2/1 or less are sitting pretty comfortable post the Cotswold Chase; come Gold Cup day should the Cotswold conditions prevail I'd be very surprised if the betting market does not act accordingly ie push Thistle out to 7/2 or 4/1 - Thistle can be beaten especially at Cheltenham!

Horse racing is mainly about one's perception of the merit and performance of a horse given conditions; one must not fall in love with a horse (if punting).

I can see him going off close to odds on,some pretty good judges are saying it was a performance that enhanced his reputation.

personally I would say those pretty good judges are in fact not pretty good judges, if that's what they are saying.

Looking at Many Clouds form, I see that in his build up to the Gold Cup when he was fancied by connections and some punters,he beat Houblon Des Obeaux 3 and a quarter lengths receiving 6lb in the Hennessey,and then beat Smad Place 1 and a quarter lengths giving him 8lb, not really the form of a horse that should be beating a Gold Cup short priced fav.
He also got beat by Don Poli 4 lengths giving him 5lb,and Don Poli is a proven not Gold Cup horse.

Seems to me with Thistlecrack, we are seeing people wanting to believe what they want to believe they saw, rather than what actually they did see!!

Yes, ermmm, not sure what world you'd have to be living in to regard him (travelling best at the last but still failing to win with a distinct look that there wasn't much there when having to really dig) as having enhanced his reputation.!

I agree. I am baffled myself.

id have thought if he had enhanced his reputation in the cotswold he would be odds on now !

Gutted

Tendon injury and misses the festival, what a shame.

Such a scunner for trainer and all involved. It 'may be racing' as they say, but that doesn't make it any easier. I hope their team go on and win the gold cup now.

cue cue card

Thistlecrack last price matched 9.6

'Opportunism' getting out of hand.

Close the exchange, its run its race.

Think it might have something to do with this

https://www.facebook.com/racingitv/posts/591088197757712?notif_t=notify_me_page¬if_id=1488016872297610


and people are just latching onto something that isn't happening?

Colin Tizzard plans to have Thistlecrack scanned again on Tuesday following the injury setback that has curtailed his season.
So dominant in the staying hurdle division last term, the nine-year-old has translated that form to fences, winning the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

He was beaten by the ill-fated Many Clouds in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham, but remained at the head of the Gold Cup betting until suffering a torn tendon.

Tizzard said: "After 36 hours of feeling gutted, I thought, 'We better move on from this'. It won't be the last one, but we found it early and that's the main thing.

"We are going to scan him again on Tuesday. There was a little tear there, but there is no heat or swelling there now.

"We just want to check again, just to please ourselves really. It is not like he is walking around with his leg in a bandage."

Why would anyone get involved at single figure odds ahead of a scan (that probably won't change anything)?

Maybe a snifter at 200+

£89 waiting at 8.4 lol

Couldn't agree more BtW. Utter madness.

would you not want to lay a N/R @ 7/8 ?

Yep. But I wouldn't want to back one!

I'm sat here and wondering why i didn't have a sneaky £2 at 400+ when i seen it a couple days ago.

I have done with most of these since Binocular that i managed 150s with

LOL too true CCM!!

Must be a reasonable chance its not as bad as first thought, otherwise they wouldn't bother scanning again. Would love to see him line up after all, however unlikely that may be, at least there may still be a chance.

Now if this had been a Willie Mullins horse then I can guarantee one or two nasty types on here would have been spewing their usual poisonous nonsense.

Kicking King!!!

Zero chance!! Tizzard himself confirmed the horse did have a tendon tear...not a hope in hell he and the owners would run him in a gold cup a couple of weeks later, sure the horse has been sat in a box for the last week, some free money to be made here!

Surely if he missed a weeks training at this stage it would affect his chances anyway.

^^^^ exactly...that alone would be enough to rule you out at this stage surely

Well if the heat is gone out of his tendon already there's a reasonable chance its not as bad as they believed. Its not the end of the world if he was stood in his box for a week. He may have missed one gallop. The rest was just ticking over.He's a fit horse. There will be plenty running in Cheltenham who missed a week or so in the run up.

They did say when interviewed on tv on Saturday that there was no limping on the leg just that they new there was a tear there when they scanned the first time but you wouldn't know it had one. It was at that point i had a look at the market seen 400+ didn't play, oh what a trade that would have been

No way they would risk him.

Would be a big call to put him back on the gallops.If he broke down could be out for a long time.

The game doesn't need another NR winning a Championship race.

It won't be happening here, I'm just a smidge away from certain

Surely a wind-up? They cannot be serious,...Thistlecrack cannot run with a tear with the race just 2.5 weeks away.

I notice a lot of the same names that said " 100% he wont run in the KG" + Not a chance if he did !! all back again !! haha

Just for the record guys i picked up at 16s for the GC had 50 on The Thistle for this GC a year ago  but i wont be picking up this year on the GC 

16s for the   *King George *

Imagine this news was coming from a certain Mr Mullins/Mr Ricci this evening ... they would be calling for their heads!

Just 2 days ago, the front page of the RP mentions the drift on Melon, however this apparent miracle relating to Thistlecrack doesn't get a mention whatsoever in tomorrow's edition? Sweep sweep!

Can't agree with that Paterson. Tizzard hasn't said anything wrong.

It's just that plenty of people have jumped to conclusions.

Presumably he will have to make another statement tomorrow after he realises what today's snippet has done!

The big difference is that the owners don't get involved and leave the updates on the horse's physical condition to the trainer.

It was n't Mullins who said Faugheen is 'fine' and 'we've run other horses with similar problems'. Then a few days later he went from having pulled muscles to a stress fracture over the course of a weekend in Mullins' bulletins. Why did they say he had pulled muscles before having him scanned?

Anyway I digress.

We are going to scan him again on Tuesday. There was a little tear there, but there is no heat or swelling there now.

"We just want to check again, just to please ourselves really. It is not like he is walking around with his leg in a bandage."

That insinuates that they are half hoping that he might have a chance, if not, then why announce anything??, will we be notified every time Faugheen or AP have a scan? or did we get every update when SS had his blood pressure taken? no we didn't, but we do get an update when it bears a relation to a possible run..... they are ploughing the field just in case!

When Cue card was pulled  a couple of years ago from the Festival NO ONE knew .NO market MOVES Mr T is simply the best . Straight bat all the way .He wants Thistlecrack to run and if he can find a reason why he can run him he will .
To compare him with   Rich R is a joke ,. Rich is an American Spiv who does not tell the truth and works as a Bookie !!

A horse that has suffered a tear muscle/ligament in their leg has no chance of running in a grade 1 race in just over two weeks' time thus I've taken his sudden "resurrection" as a great opportunity to satisfy (lay) the incessant demand which, in normal circumstance, would be against my principle to do so.

In for a penny, in for a pound!

I see it slightly differently. I don't think he announced anything - I think somebody asked him how Thistlecrack was and he gave an open reply which was then reported by a proliferation of media outlets on a proliferation of media channels.

Despite my comments on Mullins/Ricci above, they're in a no win situation really because it seems in the information age there is a demand for daily updates.

If nobody asked him until Wednesday we probably would n't know about the scan until after it happened. He had runners at Fontwell today. Somebody probably asked him there.

If the second scan confirms a tear he won't be running - if it does n't, he should at the very least get the vet to ditch the mobile scanner.I don't know enough about veterinary science but it smacks very much of A and B sample to me. There is probably also an element of human nature where Tizzard very much does n't want it to be true.

The markets thrive on fear, uncertainty and doubt, the conventional media facilitate that and then we have social media to amplify and exaggerate it.

Tizzard isn't a fool and knows very well the world we live in, he could easily state that despite the scan next week he still has no chance of running if that was the case. There clearly is an inkling/thought/hope in their minds that he may make it.

If he runs in the Gold Cup, the owners will be forever known as "Snook the Crook".

Imagine the scenes after all this, he ends up running ... in the RSA!

Or they could supplement for the Stayers.

The meltdown would be hilarious. Myself included as I've backed him for the Gold Cup months ago.

Tizzard is no amateur...he's a seasoned trainer, and as such would not have issued a definitive statement the horse had developed a tear and would miss the rest of the season, certainly Cheltenham; he'd not have made that statement without the consent and agreement of his vet whose professional credibility is on the line if turning out to be untrue.

Instead I'd ask why the tear had materialised on Thistlecrack's 1st season over fences but not his previous discipline? Could it have happened because of the fast-tracking to the King George and Cotswold against seasoned campaigners at his age? How much more taxing and punishment on the horse? For instance, we lost Don Cossack, Coneygree, No More Heroes, etc, in a short period of time.

I hope the 2nd scan is to ascertain for sure the severity of the tear/injury, and return to racing. However, I do not think there is any chance of him reverting to hurdles (Stayers) either despite holding a 48/1 double bet with Cue Card for the GC.

At the end of the day the welfare of Thistlecrack must be of paramount importance, nothing else should precede that.

Wurzle Gummidge could have had this off as one of the biggest touches/scandals since that piece of Lewinsky skirt with Big Bill

Nothing to see here.
All the 2nd scan will find is the 'extent' of the injury. Tizzard still said this at the end of the interview.

Tizzard, who still has the first two in the Gold Cup market, Cue Card and Native River, said: “We had a pretty rough old week when he got injured but after 36 hours of feeling gutted I had to move on. We found the injury early, that’s the main thing.”


Will the horse be ok in 6 weeks time? doubtful but there must be a chance.

Plenty of #Thistlecrack rumours doing the rounds over the weekend.

What baffles me the most is there are people thinking the horse has a chance of running in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month; I think an emphatic zero chance unless Tizzard has misinformed the public, and his vet misdiagnosed the injury.

What on earth are you on about?

Read his quote properly. He hasn't misinformed anyone.

Impossible 123 You are not the full Banana ! You go from subject to subject on this forum 24 hrs a hour talking out of your pocket .Get 90% of things wrong .You have hated Thistlecrack since day 1 ,.
Are you employed by PP or just SAD !

90% is generous.

Chapman spoke to Tizzard just before he came on air - he's on now. Tizzard: "Thistlecrack has zero chance of running in the Gold Cup" as far as he is concerned....

But if you were 100% sure you should have laid every penny on the lay side instead of posting garbage on here.

Colin Tizzard has reiterated that Thistlecrack will not run in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The King George VI Chase winner was ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival last week with a torn tendon, but mention at the weekend of a second scan set for this week led to some speculation and his price collapsing on the betting exchanges on Sunday night.

However, Tizzard never mooted the possibility of him running in the blue riband, with a second scan on a tendon injury being common practice among trainers to assess the full extent of the damage once an injured leg has had chance to settle down.

In a statement issued to Press Association Sport on Tuesday afternoon, Tizzard said: "Thistlecrack's second scan came back exactly the same as the first, as we expected it would.

"As communicated previously Thistlecrack will not run again this season and all being well we'd expect him to be back at Christmas."

Wishing you a speedy recovery and hope to see you at Kempton in the King George on Boxing Day 2017!

scratched from the Gold Cup now