Cheltenham Festival
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champion hurdle 2016
champion hurdle 2016
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Budd it's not always 2 milers that win the champion hurdle , there's often a strong form line from the Neptune
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Yeh I know mate,what I am saying is I want a proper 2 miler who has been intended runner,not a horse that was an afterthought and has been campaigned away from CHurdle type races for over two years.
Would never have a problem with Neptune winners......Istabraq is my fav CH horse. Hardy a real fav as well. |
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Only 3 mares ever won champion hurdle since 1927 I won't be touching Annie p
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not many tried and not many had the class of AP. She has to put her previous best over 2 and half when beating Zarkandar by a street to have a chance against these types but her allowance will make the difference and if she'll work well at home this week I see no reason for Ruby not to ride her.
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AP may very well win.
But she has no open graded wins at 2M, raced mainly against her own sex. When raced in open company it has been I extended distances. Her price even in a weak renewal is poor value in my eyes, would need to be at least 4-5/1 to be of any interest |
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Mooono 06 Mar 16 20:00 Joined: 03 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 3,177 | Blogger: Mooono's blog
If somebody said you've got to bet your house on Annie Power or have Top Notch, Old Guard, Hargam, Peace & Co and Camping Ground as a whole rag outside package, i would choose the rag package everyday of the week. I just think one of these outsiders puts in a huge performance and wins it, who knows which one, but would much rather have the rags than Miss Annie Power. they can't all win though, once you start backing several horses in the same race it's a quick way to the poorhouse. |
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can you not realise how contradictory you sound when you call it a weak renewal and say she doesn't deserve to be that price. I've heard this weak so many times, not once with strong arguments. I've given plenty for backing how this looks average, only because there are many G1s winners in it but some of them are first season out of novice company, so we don't know yet the heights of their abilities. It could look very good afterwards or like you say simply weak but I doubt any of the outsiders stand a winning chance, other than TN who will be a game player if the ground turns soft. I get that you have to form an opinion beforehand but in judging a race, you simply can't, never been done before successfully never will be. Whats worse there are many judges out there that even after the event they still get the wrong opinion of a race. You can form an opinion of a horse and his chances and you take a value price, but you don't know beforehand if your horse will win by 1 or lose by 5 lengths, you simply can't. On paper this looks average not worst, horses coming into the race rated similar won it only in the last 5 years and if you consider those weak, then what is really weak ??
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buddeliea 06 Mar 16 20:45 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 12,609 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
I just hope we have a horse winning the race that was actually entered.Plus a horse that is a 2 miler. Be nice that.If They Pay The Supplementary She Will Have Been Entered.Your Hatred Off Mullins Knows No Bounds. |
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weak races most days 20/1 winner 5 runners in Race ..? REALITY ......................
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I don't hate Mullins,just don't like the way they do certain things,thats my choice.
Tough if you don't like that,but there yer go,thats life. Anyway,dont worry about it Dec,my opinion aint gonna bother Mr Mullins. |
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And he does train my favourite horse in training.
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I can see Hargam running a much better race with the ground drying up.
Out of all the ones at bigger prices hes the one who could surprise imo. Love Top Notch,but he needs some soft in the going,if he got that hes in with a fair chance imo. Cannot see any of the others figuring. |
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It's not an opinion it's sour grapes,get over UN de sceaux ffs and put the hanky away
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I is coming round to the idea that the vast majority of the festivals championship races are won by proven types at the top level, i.e have won one or more of the key trials with a good eye would seem impressively.
The hardest thing here is with faugheen out there is no horse in this field to have won a key trial this season impressively to the eye. Unless you count the trial TNO won, which wasn't impressive but was on deep ground, also a decent 2nd which was seasonal debut in the Xmas hdl behind faugheen. The fighting fifth (IT) but to me wasn't impressive to the eye 5 years olds rarely win it, AP hasn't ran over the distance for 2 years or been campaigned with this race in mine, MTOY has been off for 2 years, Camping Ground would have the speed and stamina but is he quite good enough? Nichols Canyon, is he the same horse after last time out? If i hadn't played in this race antepost it would be one of the rare ones i wouldn't touch with a bargepole at the festival and can see Annie Power being 4-5/1 Tuesday morning due to the above question marks around the field. This will be a compressed market for sure cos i don't think anyone really knows what will happen. Proper pin job!! May the best horse win this race, surely will be a Sublimity type year where we celebrate the winner, whoever it may be, but kind of only refer to it in future as the horse who won the Churdle 2016 and not as the next superstar! |
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Okay Dec,you know best.
Lets get back to the race now,no time for squabbling...only a week to go.  |
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Just a point about TNO STS: That wasn't his reappearance in the Christmas Hurdle. He had previously beaten Stephanie Francis two lengths in unimpressive fashion.
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What's the closing date for supplementing Annie power. Thanks
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TNO has always got the job done over the last 2 seasons no matter how unimpressive he has looked except when he has come up against Faugheen. 7 wins from 9 runs. No Faugheen this time and that will do for me.
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6 day decs I believe mesi, so Wednesday.
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thanks
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Won't make a difference to the principles but....
On to the Champion Hurdle. Paul Nicholls says that Old Guard worked "absolutely dire" this morning. "For whatever reason, he didn't work very well. The girl who rides him was almost in tears. He usually works very well but for some reason he didn't today, so we'll just hope he is okay tomorrow and Monday." |
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Jockey bookings confirmed by Hendo for his five runners - as previously stated. MTOY - BJG Hargam - M Walsh Top Notch - Jacob (probably) Peace & Co - Nico (probably) Sign Of A Victory - A Tinkler
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All 13 declared for Tuesday's #ChampionHurdle & Ruby Walsh rides favourite ANNIE POWER with Paul Townend on NICHOLS CANYON #Cheltenham
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I'll go with.
1st DH annie power/nichols canyon 3rd the new one. |
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Henderson 1,2,3
Tent Top Notch Hargam |
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Old guard is out of the champion hurdle
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My biggest green of the festival, backed it at massive odds :(
I know he had no chance but i have followed everyday since it won on its debut |
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Hendo1,2,3
Tent Top notch Barham lmfao |
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Hargam fps
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Peace and co 4th,and Sign of a victory just sneaking into 5th.
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............................PHOTO OF CHAMPION HURDLE POSTERS 2016....................................................
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Timeform has a provisional figure of 166+ for first 3 finishers. They had NC on 161 or something before today and now they have him on 167. RP already had NC on 167 which says it all really, they overcame an organization that has done ratings for over 50 years, on jumps at least.
Anyway, based on this 166/7 figure it would've needed an 173/4 performance to be on terms with AP and probably only Faugheen in the last 20 years would've been capable of beating her. I think the 7lb allowance is too much, the former 5lb allowance which Flakey Dove won with was plenty enough. On flat they only give them 3lb. How much did Dawn Run get anyone knows? |
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Dawn Run had a 5lb allowance. Given that in the 30 years since then, only Flakey Dove has won the CH and no mare has won the GC, so I'd say the 7lb allowance is justified. Hurricane Fly was rated 175, so was Binocular I think ( I bet the handicapper sill blushes when he's reminded of that). Personally I don't give much notice to ratings at grade 1 level at all
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thanks @firsttimevisor,but did many mares tried it ? HF 175 was a joke, after he received that he almost got beat by an 130 horse which downgraded him back into 171/2 which was really his highest but consistent ability. I don't think many mares tried to do it and even now we almost didn't had her without the injury of her stablemate. Don't get me wrong, I was happy that she won but it would've taken a Faugheen-like performance to get hold of her. Maybe they made it 7lb because they wanted to attract more owners to it and create a spectacle like today? Who knows, it worked.. but still.. too much allowance imho
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Racing Post just posted their ratings for the CH:
Annie Power (IRE) 5/2F 164 My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 167 Nichols Canyon 15/2 168 They raised NC with 1 pound probably for making the blunder out of the last, he would've finished second. Curious if Timeform will keep their provisional 166+ ratings for the first three and not take a view one way or the other. Race looks average but winning it would've taken something special due to Annie's allowance. |
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Some have tried but not many have the ability to have a realistic chance which is why the 7 lb allowance is justified. Annie Power is exceptional. Now Timtin, nothing hurts me more than someone trying to downgrade The Fly - the best hurdler I've seen!! He was still running to 170 as a 10 -11 yo. He was an Italian type, always happy to win 1-0 and always capable of a higher rating due to his style of racing. He was truly exceptional
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I wasn't aware you can downgrade a horse by saying he was an 172/3 horse at his best(which is what RP and Timeform have him at), that not common you know that right? Its like an 180+ chaser because over fences the margins are slightly exaggerated hence bigger ratings. Saying he was an 175 animal its like saying he was almost at the level of Faugheen and I can't have that. I know that the official handicappers have him at 175 but thats more an afterthought after winning his second CH, almost a recognition not an actual performance he put forward.
But how many mares have tried in the last 10 years? How many would've placed/win with that type of allowance? isn't it unfair for the mares in the past for receiving only 5lb while nowadays they get 7lb? Why are the fillies on flat only getting 3lb? At that young age they're more physically inferior to the males counterparts vs the ones running over jumps. I think there's a case for going down back to 5lb. Look at how many fillies have won the Arc in recent years. Once a flaw appears trainers will take advantage and there will be more trying to win the CH with that type of allowance, if they'll ever get a mare good enough which is probably what the BHA wants and why they introduced the big allowance in the first place but that doesn't mean its justified. |
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The APPLE'S JADE comparison with ANNIE POWER debate will continue right up to March as APPLES will obviously get a Champion Hurdle entry.
 That 7lbs Mares allowance will be handy against Buveur D'air  |
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If they ran it next week, Buveur would be 1/3.
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Not with Laurina remaining an unknown quantity he wouldn't.
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