Why do you need to wait until after a race to decide if its weak? We know enough about most of the protagonists don't we? Of course a race can sometimes go on to prove you wrong and end up better than you thought, but I'd be surprised if this does.

I think its a weak CH.

I think that would be a fantastic race Harry, and far from weak (although I think BDM would struggle over 2m).

You'd also have Outlander, Black Hercules, Bristol de Mai and More of That 100% confirmed for the RSA to put it up to No More Heroes, Blacklion, SYAM, Vyta du Roc.

I do not think Camping Ground would run if going is good/good to soft - he'd more likely be rerouted to the WH and given a 2nd chance after running too free in the Cleeve.

maybe a slight over reaction calling it weak as we have lot the superstar and what many (myself included) would call his main danger. So now were left with a group of good horses who all have questions to answer. None would of held a candle to Faugheen but they are gd horses. Just none are cast iron.

Really considering laying annie power at the 7-4 mark due to her prep and fact she hasn't won over this distance since beating doyley cart, also has had a bad experience at cheltenham.

Identity thief hasn't seemed to catch everyones imagination, due probably mainly to the fact that he wasn't anything special as a novice. Also although beaten arguably looked the more talented 2miler vs NC.

Nichols canyon only horse to beat world beater Faugheen, so many would think he'd be short priced fav to win this. Wrong. Still seems to be calls by some for WH. He doesnt look an out and out speed 2miler, he has had a couple of gruelling races that might of just finished him for the year. Also looks vulnerable to a quicker horse. If fit and healthy though and given a positive ride, would be hard to kick out of the 3.

The New One is very interesting seems to off been written of pretty much on last years CH performance. His jumping has always been slightly chancy. However he should arguably already be a CH winner, the 4 who finished infront of him last year are not running and i think most would say he s better than that. He seemed to jump a lot better last time but once again made hard work of it on the ground. He is the dark one that has a bigger performance in him for me, just not sure if we'll see it. Looks like now or never.

My Tent or Yours seems ridiculously priced  8-1 after 2 years off and no prep, he is talented but has always had a huge achillies heel with his tendency to pull. On his form a few years ago he arguably would be favourite as he seems the most natural 2miler out of all of these with his pure abSility but cant be having him at this kind of price on my mind. Would be looking at place laying if around this price.

Top Notch seems another blue collar battler who adds substance to form, is a gd form measuring stick. Like the horse but wouldn't seem to have the class to win a C hurdle but in a year with doubts surrounding every runner could run into a place.

Hargam- A very poor mans Harchibald got ability but isn't ever going to have enough of the bridle to go past a horse to win a championship race. Flt track bully.

Old Guard- HHHmmm another likeable horse who would not seem to have the class to win a champion but loves decent ground and cheltenham. Very reliable and seems very likely to run his race. STD seems to of chosen TNO over him!

Peace and Co- How the mighty have fallen, a year ago and at the start of this year many where talking of this horse as the second coming. Wheels have fallen off majorly yet some seem to cling to hope that the WIND OP will change all that around, couldn't back this with counterfeit horse screams physical problems to me.

Camping Ground- People thought this was a danger to thistlecrack in WH. Turnedout he couldn't stay and didn't jump paticularly great. 2miles on quick ground with jumping under pressure and with no real form that would give him a chance in a chance in a champion hurdle. Looks like a stab in the dark to me after failed WH idea.

Sempre Medici is interesting, he is classy and has gone under the radar, ties in nicely with old guard. He looks like a classy individual, and his thrashing of IT looks good. Comes across as a bit of a flat track bully but is unexposed, would prefer him at aintree as stiff finish isn't ideal.


So my point is theres question marks against the horses that we consider champion hurdle horses AP, NC, TNO and MTOY. SO this brings horses that we'd maybe not consider champion hurdle class but seem much more reliable and likely to run there race. TN, OG and SM.

This is not to say i consider these better horses just when you take there prep into consideration there more likely to run there race. Prep would be a major worry for me on NC who arguably would be my selection otherwise.

So I'm left with IT, TNO, TN, OG and SM. IT would be the most likely winner with the right profile, seems to have been campaigned with this race in mind. TNO is a fav but I'm not sure is reliable jumper at CH pace and he may of missed his chance (regrettably out). TN ties in nicely with IT, so he is and so is OG and SM. So thats my book IT, TN, OG and SM. I no i havent exactly narrowed it down to one. Just get the feeling this race out of them all could turn out to be a massive shocker.

If Identity Thief is good enough to win the CH, You can safely assume it was a truly desperate race

Apologies, I thought he beat Top Notch a head in the FF.

I would not be so sure that it is going to finish in front of sempre

WB couldn't ran to 160 that day, he was outclassed by TN and IT, similar to what Irving experiences every time he faces a fast pace throughout as he can't cope with it and finishes his races well beaten. Outclassing a 160 horses means they're near top class but IT in particular with better ground and improved jumping its not a great leap of imagination to see him running into 170 and having AP's measure. Thats only my theory, on paper NC is still ahead of him and we know thats a top class horse already winning every G1 over hurdle bar 2 when facing Faugheen and in Neptune where he didn't had any more stamina to move past inferior(over 2 miles) horses.

@duffy I didn't said its a desperate race, I applied your principle of horses not being good enough one season then improving massively the next and benefit of doubt always go towards novices who didn't had enough races to reach their potential. A horse like CC is exposed, we know its ability and the only difference this year is he was helped by operations to relax and not choke, resulting in better results over further. IT hasn't been given the chance to show how good he is, just like most other novices that are in the CH so calling the race a weak one is an opinion that I can't accept until we actually see what happens in the race. The race on paper looks average, but it looks that way because the talented youngsters that come into it haven't got the chances to prove their worth and from where I'm standing I've given examples in last 5 years where ~160 rated horses that came into the race finished close runner-ups(Peddlers 162, Countrywide 158) or even winning it(Rock on Ruby 158, Jezki 165, 2011 HF 167) and they didn't faced as many as talented horses all at once like this year, one of them has to rise above them.

@timtin there is no way in hell the winner of this CH runs to a rating of 170. You're probably looking at around 163 or so which is the reason why i think AP is fav. Seriously though all it will take is one of the oldies putting in a stellar performance or one of the newbies like IT putting in a career best performance.

Boy do i miss Faugheen.

AP stood a massive shot 2 years ago, what changed? She was about to destroy the marees last year and she looked as good on reappearance, whatever beats her will need to put a career best performance and run around 170. I don't think they'll send her CH and Ruby riding if they don't think the world of her. Not many first season out of novices come with big ratings in the race @maelduin, we have a majority of 160 horses in this, to say the winner will have to run to 163 is assuming that 6-7 ~160 rated horses will finish 1-2 lengths apart, surely a horse will split from them and win by a some margin and depending how far he'll put a performance of at least 165. If a horse finishes just a nose ahead of AP and everything in behind suggest she ran to her current 162 rating then the winner is 169 rated which is average. If she runs to 162 and a horse like IT or NC beats her by 3-4 lengths then the 170 is reached. Everything depends on how they finish and thats why I keep mentioning that without seeing the race we have no idea what kind of renewal this will be, but with so many quality horses in it its surely going to be competitive which some confuse with weak. Not all competitive races are weak.

so you think that Polly Peachum who was rated 155 and Glens Melody 150, beating them 10+ lengths thats 155 performance? I'd say it would've been easily around 165 performance. Bitofapuzzle back in third won in style the Fairyhouse mares G1 a month later. AP would've beat these 3 by at least 10 lengths.

Well she's not a 2 miler.
What she doing at the head of the market with the prep she's had......God only knows!!
Maybe she can get away with it against this field.i seriously doubt it myself,but I guess some think she can.

Not for me Annie my dear.

I think the ground cost IT, when NC fought back after being passed. That to me reeked of having the speed to burn off NC but not being able to sustain it on the ground.

Pretty keen on his chance now, OK using NC as a shaky yardstick but connections are keen on him as well and he is one of the least exposed.

"so you think that Polly Peachum who was rated 155 and Glens Melody 150, beating them 10+ lengths thats 155 performance? I'd say it would've been easily around 165 performance"

How could that have been a 155 performance when the horse in 3rd got raised 1lb to 145 for a less then short head beating? More like 147 or so. Also if you thought AP ran to 165 (highest ever mark) on her first run of the season then you must think she is a certainty in the CH (with a prep) as the newbies would need to improve over a stone to get near her and the oldies have never ran to 172. Don't think we'll see anywhere near that mark myself. GL

AP was going to beat them 10 lengths at least

This would have been the bestest of best case scenarios having watched it again today.

Worse case scenario she wins by a length.  Puts her on what 151?

Lets put it in the middle and say 5 lengths, this makes it 156. With a 7lb allowance in the CH it gives her a rating of 163 over her optimum trip of 2m 4f..... lets take off the 7 again (v kindly) for the 2 miles trip and we are back to 156 (best case!!!). In fact this figure is proven over 2 miles on her form, she runs between 145-155 against mares.

She will be unplaced in the CH, wrong track, jumping will be tested, wrong distance and she is a mare.

The prosection rests!! lol

Alot of horses not had ideal prep. I think AP should go CH, and i think she won't be easy to pass at all. Price is shady though, and some of the jokers are 6/4. I think it should be 3/1 the field. E/W value elsewhere.

Annie power has very strong claims! 6/4 is too short but would you want to lay the 11/4 currently on betfair?? She is getting 7 lbs, should have gone for the race 2 years ago, she travels so strongly, bar that fall last year she jumps well. What horse is going to put up the 165-170 rated performance to beat her then??

I'd have to have annie in that scenario. As thats that's 4 out of the five iv completely ruled out imo. Top notch would have a possibility of a place.

I would rather have the rags also,the only good thing about Annie for me is the mares allowance.

Tent would be the perfect winner for the race imo.
Proper classy 2 miler. Just perfect.