That is a fair comment tim.
Still like to see him have a go though

Yeh,i know mate.
One day I will get over it!!

The connections of UDS will not reroute the horse to the CH, why? This is the horse's 2nd season over fences and has not won a CC before, and also UDS is more likely to have lost a bit of its speed too. The CC is theirs for the taking with two principal runners in decline.

On the other hand if AP (RR) is not sound then pretty likely Douvan (same ownership as AP) could be rerouted to CH.

Of course you are right impossible..It was always meant tongue in cheek as I said before.
He missed his chance,and it wont come back now.
Douvan on the other hand......
Cant begin to imagine the carnage if AP is injured and Douvan is rerouted!!
WW3 anyone!!!

If Douvan is rerouted because something is amiss with AP just prior/post supplementary stage (9th March) I'd be livid as all the doubles and trebles on good antepost prices but not nrnb will be money down the drain - I cannot take another hit after KV, Faugheen and then Arctic Fire, being the latest and hopefully the last.

They won't re-route Douvan, he's going to be a chasing monster in the fullness of time, they won't interrupt that in any respect IMO to rescue the CH.

Incidentally can someone point me in the direction of some concrete form that justifies AP as a 2/1 fav.

Agree Foyles

The thing is though and despite the price of her and the assumption she'll be supplemented I actually think that there isn't a great amount of confidence within the Mullins camp for her. Mullins said on ATR that in an ideal world she would be going to Aintree and leaving everything else alone!!, Ruby said yesterday, if she works the house down next week or whenever she'll be supplemented!!

yeah I had noted what ruby said and it sounded to me as though she has not been setting the world alight at home and as you say ruby sounded less than enthusiastic ,with faugheen out ruby sounded like hed lost a tenner and found a pound .

Still think Sempre Medici is over priced, especially when compared to Identity Thief who he stuffed when they met last year. If this was WPM & RR's only runner he would be a fraction of the price, surely? I really think that he could realistically be 4th or 5th in the betting if he had a higher profile prep or had been kept to decent ground.

I concur 100%

My info is he has improved a stone since last year, and will be better on good ground his action suggest this will be the case

^
don't know what price he'd be but I reckon the (Wylie finally getting the hump with the yard) market would finally see some action

Can't understand the suggestion that his action says he will improve for better ground, when he's run on it plenty of times and always underperformed?

But isn't he the Mullins fifth string?

I realise the first two are now missing, but the fact that there are still two much better-fancied stable runners (assuming Annie P goes, which looks fair) makes me think he is a very unlikely winner.

Real head scratcher for me too. 

I keep going on about it, but I don't know he can be 9/2 and Top Notch 20/1 for 1/4 of a length?  Top Notch had only ran 7 days before, whereas Identity Thief had a nice 4 week break since his season opener.

Also, Sempre Medici?  For a Champion Hurdle?

Sempre medici has won a couple of very weak races where neither horse who finished 2nd out od the handicap at weights have done anything what so ever to suggest they wouldn't be last in a champion hurdle, the de bromhead horse was gig well until falling alongside am per medici too. Sempre medici gas been well beaten by nicholls canyon twice, once in the Deloite beaten 63 lengths  yielding ground over 2m2 with identity thief pulled up once well beaten.  and in the punchestown champion novice hurdle grade 1 beaten 12 1/2 lengths over 2m4.
Nicholls canyon has won 6 grade 1s (7would of been 7 if he diddnt fall when still on the bit against sizing john) 4 of which he's won between gd and gd to yielding. He's won 5 out of 5 grade 1s when he's been left at the front to dictate on his on terms. He's beaten more graded winners than any other horse in the champion hurdle line up.
This season he beat an unfit faugheen and a decent horse in wicklow brave. He beat identity thief on his unfavourable heavy going. And he got destroyed by a front running fit faugheen after a short break when townend tried to do what not a single horse in the champion hurdle line up can do in trying to match a fluent faugheen in top gear stride for stride.

Gd to soft  front running,  nothing that is currently entered for the champion hurdle will beat Nicholls Canyon imo. Now arctic fire is unfortunately  gone, The new one is the only horse with a turn of foot.  The only dangers for win purposes is a ruby walsh ridden annie power which isn't a complete certainty to run, and the horse himself jumping.
I'd be gob smacked if NC got his conditions and he was out the 3.

I've always been a big NC fan and think he is probably under-rated in this market. My worry would be that he had a brutally hard race when beating Identity Thief two starts back and then ran no sort of race when left punch-drunk by Faugheen. I'm more than willing to write that off as him not having recovered from the time before and then asked to match Faugheen from some way out, which I don't think any horse could. The worry is that if he hadn't got over the previous hard race, why would he have got over this one on top of the other one?

Trying to beat faugheen at his own game, is a completely different scenario to running against these.  Ask any horse in the line up to take on and go stride for stride with faugheen and there going to look very stupid. Coming of the back of a hard race or not.

I agree with Shockster, where sometimes I think you look for something at a price when they just haven't got the form.

I'd rule out the following straight away: Purple Bay, Sign of a Victory, Sempre Medici, Peace and Co and Old Guard.  I wouldn't completely rule out, but don't particularly fancy them: Camping Ground, Hargam and My Tent or Yours.

That leaves Annie Power, Identity Thief, Nichols Canyon, Top Notch and The New One.

Annie Power is the best of them in terms of natural ability, but her prep, price and the distance puts me off. I'd fully expect to see Ruby take the ride, but wouldn't particularly like to see one winning such an important race like the Champion Hurdle when was an after thought (just my opinion).

Identity Thief: I'm cautious about just how good he actaully is, and if he has reached his ceiling ability - I'm not sure there's that much more to come but he has only had 8 runs, so possibly still unexposed.  Completely different horse to his novice years though, but his price puts me off more than anything.

Nichols Canyon: Potenitally the most likely winner as he will have had a good break and if he has got over his last run.  Again, like Identity Thief, I'm not sure if we've seen his ceiling ability though, as he's had 6 runs from March 15, and he's quite heavily raced for a 6 yo (20 runs)

Top Notch: I think there is more to come and is the leading 5 yo in the field.  Open to improvement in my view, but lack of a Grade 1 win is a concern.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacob desert him and go to Peace and Co too.

The New One: I think we're all a bit disappointed he hasn't quite reached the heights we thought he would, but if people talk about MTOY being naturally the best in the field, TNO threw away the Xmas Hurdle a few years ago, when it looked like he'd comfortably hold Tent.  But his jumping when getting tired still has never been sorted - even in the Christmas Hurdle he kept smacking them, but good ground will see a big improvement imo.

I said a few days ago that I'd keep changing my mind - The New One may have just entered the equation for me

100 agree with the way you have narrowed it down chief. I have a piece of paper with the exact same horses scribbled out.
In regards to nc feeling the effects of a hard race on heavy against IT Maybe he was maybe he wasn't only willie mins knows. I just think faugheen gave him a thorough beating and he's had a race. Been enough time between then and cheltenham for me. On decent ground against this field,  I can see no excuses what so ever.