Cheltenham Festival
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champion hurdle 2016
champion hurdle 2016
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That's the point though Rease, there's no evidence that he couldn't breathe properly - pure guess work. But he hasn't been fit yet, that's for sure, so if they do manage to work the oracle with him somehow, he could show dramatic improvement on what we've seen so far - he will need to!
I honestly thought following that performance last season at Donny that we were seeing the next superstar, it's such a shame to see him struggling now. |
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This could be the first Champion Hurdle where they have all been pulled up or fallen before the last and it's a no race.
What an average bunch!!! Still fun though trying to find the winner.  If there is one? |
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I would be clinging to the hope that camping ground had progressed from last season regarding the improved rating from the handicap to the relkeel ,on tentative form lines involving top notch identity thief and a few others he comes out favourably, the trip could be a concern and they might be too quick for him but he will be ridden to take the sting out of a few of the speedier looking types Shirley ,I may have the rose tinted on but he has a lot of pluses to him than many of the ones in front of him in the betting imo
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There has been some moderate winners over the last decade or so, this year is looking like it might throw up the same. If Sublimity, Punjabi or Katchit were running in this, you still couldn't fancy 'em!
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MTOY to prep with another racecourse gallop with Hargam.
Looks like the idea being that Hargam will be used to set a decent pace in the CH to help MTOY to settle, they're working on getting their fractions right. I think MTOY is pretty clearly Hendo's main hope for the race, hence the 'cotton wool' treatment. |
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It looks that way DO. But really, oldest horse in the race at 9 and off for 2 years. Good luck Hendo.
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Exactly. Says alot about Hargam and P&C if they think MTOY is their likeliest winner too.
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Just listening to Mullins on ATR.....before the Faugheen injury, wasn't the plan with AP, run last week and it was the World Hurdle for her?, yet he just says that the World Hurdle would have been unsuitable for her
 Listening to him, he didn't strike me as being overly confident with her CH hopes, reckons that ideally she'd be running at Aintree and leaving the other races alone!!...mind you that could all be bullsh1t too |
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CCM, he could be perfectly settled and relaxed and in their opinion show that he retains all of his ability...him settling is more than half the battle against this line up IMO.
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Not for me duffy. With Faugheen out its more open, but there are still a couple of very good horses in this. I couldnt have a 9 yr old running for the first time in 2 years against the likes of Arctic Fire myself
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IMO P&C hasn't trained on from 4 to 5, if i was Hendo he'd be campaigned moderately this term with a view at bringing him back next so he could win the fighting fifth at 20/1+ basing on his 5 year old form
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Then he'd run in next years churdle as a 6 year old and imo would probably be his best chance
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P and C is a mystery, I don't think it's a not training on problem because I'd expect to see flat performances throughout if that was the case, he's running like a lunatic and then obviously emptying, I remember thinking at the start of the season that he'd be a worthy adversary to Faugheen...He'd be the one I'd be cursing over if it won !!
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Something wrong with Nichols Canyon?? 8/1+ for him on the exchange and IT at 6/1! crazy prices if you ask me
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Foyles - I'm with you with Camping Ground. I think 25-1 is a great price, especially under the NRNB concession as he may not run on decent ground.
wellchief - I agree about the ratings in that I'd take the 163 he achieved over 2m4f as indicating what he is capable of over that distance (and that race may have fallen apart a bit), but I loved the run over 2m in the Imperial Cup the season before. He gave Rayvin Black not far off two stone and was beaten 2l or so and he gave Thistlecrack over a stone and beat him. Obviously 2m would have been a bit sharp for the latter but he seems to be the second coming and the former has proved himself a very solid G2 sort over those conditions this season. For a five-year-old to have done that must, at the very least, suggest this horse has a serious engine. From a ratings perspective, how many of the rest of the field would people expect to have been able to give Rayvin Black almost two stone and get so close under that one's ideal conditions? Just an interesting poser... |
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If, as seems likely AP goes for the CHurdle & VVM for the Mares.....then perhaps Ruby Walsh will be trying to persuade them to run NC in the World Hurdle....who else would he ride in the World Hurdle if not???
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Arctic Fire 4-7 when Ruby rides, 0-10 when anybody else does, not wholly surprising given in a lot of the races Ruby did n't ride AF would be stable second string - it does underline the significance of the Ruby's choice though.
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Ruby, Jacob and Geraghty could all have tough decisions over who they ride.
Tom, re something giving 2 stone to Rayvin Black, that is a hard one. I'd say nothing could give a current Rayvin Black 2 stone, but I think we've seen a much improved Rayvin Black this year. As mad as the Imperial Cup is, at the end of the day it's just another fast paced 2m handicap, like the Betfair Hurdle. Camping Ground was off 150 that day and couldn't win, whereas Zarkandar won the BF Hurdle off 151 after a layoff and couldn't win the Champion Hurdle. Probably comparing apples and pears there, but I'd still expect a Champion Hurdle winner to win a handicap off 150 regardless of the opposition. MTOY nearly won one off low 160's. |
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MTOY actually ran off 168, so doing him an injustice there.
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Yeah I can see those points wellchief, but I suppose my angle would be that CG is 25-1, and thus offers better value than either of those two did. I think, if memory serves me correctly, that MTOY kept most of the others out of the weights when he ran off 168 too, and was probably not at his best at the end of the season that day.
Rayvin Black probably has improved too, but I'm not sure by how much. He was having his 11th hurdle run then, and was also busy on the Flat beforehand, so it just seems a little unlikely that he's improved as much as the ratings suggest. |
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average winners or weak renewals(`07, `08, `09, `13) which Arctic Fire based on last year run would've won doing handstands.
 I know you're of the view that Faugheen is Pegasus incarnate and so by extension need AF to also be out of the very top drawer, but c'mon! 20+ G1 winner The Fly beats the reigning champ and in the process is given 173..... I'm not even a HF fanboy, but AF would've been playing for 3rd in that renewal. Handstands indeed  You're right about the others tho, poor renewals. |
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I do agree Camping Ground is decent value at 25's, I see him as a good place bet, but maybe a speedier 2 miler may have too many gears for him.
Considering he's about 12 times the price of Annie, and she is hardly a crack 2m speedster, I'd much rather be on him. Also, he was only 5 in the Imperial Cup so for one that young to carry top weight, I'd probably add a few pounds onto that 152 rating as he is probably unexposed at the distance. |
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MTOY's has failed but for me it's not as simple as that with him, the ability is all there for me but it's his handicapping of himself that has held him back, yes if he doesn't settle he's no chance and who knows if he's as good as he was, but on the day if he is there I'll assume he is as good as he was and he did settle in the workout with hargam where I'd have expected to see him pulling his head off going half pace.
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Agreed Duffy and if Hargam is going to pace him, plus with CG likely to ensure a keen gallop, it can only help him settle.
If he retains his old ability and things go his way, then there's no reason why he can't win this, I don't think it's as strong a race as the one he was touched off in. But then there's half the field that you can make a case for! |
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@DO, I didn't meant `13 winner is average but that it was a weak renewal, ROR was not the same horse as when he won the CH and got beat in all major trials and on the day he was too keen upfront. Countrywide Flame, a mid 150 horse, finished only 1-2 length in third and there were only 6 finishers. So yes IMO thats the definition of a weak renewal. Arctic would've cruised past the workmanlike HF in that race.
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Shoot me down but this race is proving stupidly hard to solve. WIllie Mullins even considering supplementing Annie power just says to me his other two aren't good enough. I can't have the new one on my brain so I keep getting drawn to the McManus pair. Hendo has purposely saved them for the better ground. Mtoy could be a stupid price, Hendo has reduced the bounce factor, gave him necessary race course gallops and from what I've heard has actually learnt to settle. No I haven't been bashed around the head.
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I dont think AP being supplemented means he doesnt think the other two are any good myself. I think its more Rich Ricci wanting a credible runner. The World Hurdle looks tough for Annie and they have VVM for the Mares anyway. So why not give it a go.
I think the race is quite straight forward myself. Arctic Fire beats The New One with the pair of them five lengths clear of a well held Nichols Canyon, just ahead of Old Guard |
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timtin
23 Feb 16 15:45 @DO, I didn't meant `13 winner is average but that it was a weak renewal, ROR was not the same horse as when he won the CH and got beat in all major trials and on the day he was too keen upfront. Countrywide Flame, a mid 150 horse, finished only 1-2 length in third and there were only 6 finishers. So yes IMO thats the definition of a weak renewal. Arctic would've cruised past the workmanlike HF in that race. This race provides a perfect example of what I was trying to say on the Vautour thread the other week about a stayer (Smad Place)getting hurt through the race going too fast and emptying his tank with no stamina left. This day the Zarkandar fans amongst us thought that if he could stay in touch, his stamina would kick in and win him the race, but what happened was he went too quick trying to follow ROR and killed himself, he should have been back with Walsh who feeling The Fly was going to be hurt trying to go it himself, just tried to keep within hailing distance and in the end outstayed dead horses. |
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I can't have the new one in the first 5 no matter first 6. Arctic fire is too much of a nearly horse for me he's always there but never follows through. Nichols canyon looked like it hated Cheltenham last year even though ruby didn't give it a great ride. So not even a mention of my Henderson thinking? Not being shot down very good start.
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I'll be backing MTOY's and I'll be watching to see if P&C settles very quickly because if he does I'll assume he's last years horse and the wind op had done the trick....I'd expect his price to tumble in-running as people latch onto this.
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P&C settled well lto and didn't do him any good. He had a high head carriage as well so that could also be a negative sign. Is there any proof that he has improved or are we going faith all around? And MTOY is there are proof, even if he's the same form, that he learned to settle and that he's good enough to handle AF? He only beat TNO in the Xmas Hurdle 2 seasons ago and came 2-3 lengths in front of him in the CH after TNO got badly hampered. I'd much rather be on TNO who could snatch a place than MTOY who's been gone for 2 years and even on that form its questionable if he'll be good enough for this year's opponents.
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yeah chief rayving black may have improved and nothing could give it 2 stone but camping ground has not stood still this season !
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I'm pretty sure the MTOY/Jezki form would be enough to win this race.
As a fav for that race The Fly was 5l behind those two when a well fancied favourite He was beaten the same distance by AF last year, as a barely considered afterthought who had even been deserted by Ruby. If that's AFs best bit of form, I don't see how that puts him ahead of the form of two years ago? |
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timtin
All that is right but haven't all the leading fancies got something to prove. Has TNO ever proved he's the speed for a 2 mile championship race, people forget that before he was hampered by OC he was already just beginning to get outpaced. Has AP ever proved she's the speed for a CH, 90% of her career has seen her beat up mares hurdle horses. Has AF ever proved he should be pushing favourite, last year he was a 20/1 poke and ridden from the back to pick up a place and other than that has won a maiden hurdle and novice hurdle and has had an aborted attempt at trying to turn him into a WH horse already this year. Actually put into a 2 mile championship race for the first time with pretensions to win it, has he the pace, the ones up front aren't going to be chasing Faugheen this year so won't be the easy pickings they were last. They may all prove it, but they haven't yet but are skinny odds already, without knowing. MTOY's odds are better value with what he has to prove as it stands I think. Although it is poorer without Faugheen and probably not a race for the purists, it is now a much more fascinating race which we are all now talking about, it's been re-invigorated as a discussion piece and is now a race where I think we'd all agree anything could happen. Well apart from Identity Thief winning! |
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Of the principal runners what is most unlikely to win given present form and preparation.
Eg - 1) Nichols Canyon (NC) - I think he's run his Champion Hurdle already 2) Identity Thief (IT) - looked all over the winner but denied by NC 3) The New One (TNO) - had had his chance and should have won against Jezki - no more chance 4) My Tent Or Yours (MTOY) - after two years, and still head strong, a near impossibility 5) Peace And Co (PAC) - won a mediocre Triumph last year, head strong and shown nothing this year 6) Top Notch (TN) - on Triumph and present form, a place at best 7) Hargam (H) - just not good enough 8) Camping Ground (CG) - 16f is wholly different to 20f, and only for the value seeker 9) Old Guard (OG) - at best 10/1 for a place That leaves Annie Power (AP)and Arctic Fire (AF). AP would have had a decent chance against Hurricane Fly two years ago, however, given procrastination and indecision about her number 1 target race this year and preparation there must be a serious doubt about her retaining her ability of two years ago by her connections. And at 2/1, only a loyal fan would side with AP. AF, on the other hand, finished behind Faugheen (1.5l) in the Champion Hurdle (CH) last year and Hurricane Fly (Irish CH) at Leopardstown (1.5l), would have beaten Jezki but for falling at the last in the Aintree Hurdle over 20f. Did any of the above manage AF's achievement? AP might, two years ago, but very unlikely at the present moment. This year will probably be AF's year, and I think RW might surprise most by taking the pilot role. |
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@DO i think they're rated about the same MTOY and AF at their best, don't know who'd win but my money is on AF who doesn't have a problem relaxing and kicking his flat speed in at the end. MTOY on the other hand we don't know if he settles, he needs a good pace to settle, has not shown superior form to AF and he hasn't had a race for 2 years. HF clearly not gave his true running in `14 CH, he was helped in `15 by staying tucked in and Ruby going tactical early stages on Faugheen.
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As was AF. You can't get away from the fact that HF was 11yo last year and that the race was run to suit both him and AF due to the comedy fractions the other jocks allowed Ruby to set on Faugheen.
2014 was a much truer run race and I'd be happy that the form of that one one would be more robust. Outside of AF getting within a couple of lengths of Faugheen that day, in an unsatisfyingly run race, I can't see why anyone would be confident that he's the best horse in this race. And I'm saying that in the knowledge that I have him as a small winner in my book. |
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Arctic Fire out?
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Willie Mullins @WillieMullinsNH 3m3 minutes ago
Unfortunately, #ArcticFire is out of @CheltenhamRaces. It looks like he has a little chip off a sesamoid bone which will need to be removed |